I've been wanting to pull this story together, but here's the rough draft:Shi'a and Sunni militias worked together until mid-2005, when the al-Sadr militia also ceased receiving Iranian assistance. The significance of the sectarian split and the cut-off of the Mahdi Army by Iran should be obvious. When it became clear that the new central government in Baghdad would be dominated by Iran's proxy, Iran cut off the other factions. It was at this very point that the use of IEDs spread.
May I suggesting that the interests of Iran in Iraq are served by stabilization of the emerging status quo, not confrontation with the US. If I'm right, someone else is behind this.
This is essentially the same charge leveled in summer 2005.
The complicity of the Iranian government in shipping IEDs was never proven, so the story went away, and Pace refused to confirm it before it was resurrected as the cornerstone of the Administration case after Bush announced The Surge. Note in the August 2005 report below the usual reliance on "unnamed officials". Note, however, that MSNBC cites for this allegation a very familiar name: Michael Ledeen at AEI, who is also suspected of involvement in cooking up the counterfeit Niger Yellowcake documents. Here's how the story was framed in August 2005:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8829929 /
Shipment of high explosives intercepted in Iraq
Most sophisticated of roadside bombs reportedly coming from Iran
By Jim Miklaszewski
Chief Pentagon correspondent
NBC News
Updated: 6:54 p.m. ET Aug 4, 2005
U.S. military and intelligence officials tell NBC News that American soldiers intercepted a large shipment of high explosives, smuggled into northeastern Iraq from Iran only last week. The officials say the shipment contained dozens of "shaped charges" manufactured recently. Shaped charges are especially lethal because they’re designed to concentrate and direct a more powerful blast into a small area. “They’ll go right through a very heavily armored vehicle like an M1-A1 tank from one side right out the other side,” says retired U.S. Army General Barry McCaffrey.
Military officials say there’s only one use for shaped charges — to kill American forces — and insurgents started using them in Iraq with deadly effectiveness three months ago. Intelligence officials believe the high-explosives were shipped into Iraq by the Iranian Revolutionary guard or the terrorist group Hezbollah, but are convinced it could not have happened without the full consent of the Iranian government. And Thursday, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld accused Iran of attempting to derail the democratic process in Iraq. Iran’s Shiite government has also struck up a seemingly strange alliance with Sunni insurgents to try to drive the American military out of Iraq.
"They are desperate to get us out of Iraq” says Michael Ledeen, author of "The War Against the Terror Masters" and resident scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute. “If we succeed in Iraq they will be surrounded by elected governments.” Military officials acknowledge that these explosives are only the tip of the iceberg... and predict the deadly bombings in Iraq are far from over.
Mark
-----------------
Forwarded Message:
Subj: Re: Your National Journal article
Date: 1/20/2007 12:23:21 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
From: LEVEYMG
To:
[email protected] In a message dated 1/19/2007 3:30:10 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
[email protected] writes:
i wonder if it was something dreamed up the MEK, or whether it exists, or what
Here's my take on it: like most urban legends and propaganda, there's a germ of truth -- one that got cultured, mutated, and genetically manipulated beyond all recognition before it spread through the media.
Of course, Iran has been providing extensive economic assistance and some military advisors to various Iraqi Shi'a groups. The vast majority in recent times to al-Hakim (SCIRI), and some humanitarian assistance (and little or no military aid) to al-Sadr. These two factions don't like each other, and Tehran strongly favors SCIRI. Intra-Shi'a fighting isn't far away.
But, things were somewhat different before mid-2003, when some Shi'a and Sunni militias were still working together against the occupation, and the SCIRI dominated al-Maliki gov't wasn't yet established. At that time, there were fewer Iranian military advisors, but they worked much more with al-Sadr, because the Mahdi Army was the most effective and active Shi'a fighting force.
Going back, we see that big IEDs began to become an effective weapon by the Sunnis. The use of larger, deadlier roadside bombs started in the Sunni areas north and west of Baghdad. Shaped charges are a fairly sophisticated, but not beyond the technical abilities of Saddam's former military, which employed similar techniques in the old regime's rocket program. This from the NYT:
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:vpgZwaKfFygJ:www.t... Iraqi Rebels Refine Bomb Skills, Pushing Toll of GI's Higher
By David S. Cloud
The New York Times
Wednesday 22 June 2005
SNIP
General Vines, who spoke by telephone from Iraq, said that the insurgents' tactics "have become more sophisticated in some cases," and that they were probably drawing on bomb-making experts from outside Iraq and from the old Iraqi Army.
SNIP
In addition to technical improvements in their bombs, insurgents, especially in rural areas, are resorting to packing more explosives into the devices to disable armored vehicles, Army experts at the Fort Irwin conference said. Hundreds of armored Humvees have been rushed to Iraq over the past year, and Pentagon officials say unarmored vehicles are now confined to bases. Still, five marines were killed this week near Ramadi, about 70 miles west of Baghdad, when their vehicle hit an I.E.D. Earlier this month, five marines were killed after their vehicle struck a bomb in Haqlaniya, about 150 miles northwest of Baghdad.
A senior Marine officer with access to classified reports from the field said that the vehicles involved in the two fatal attacks were armored Humvees but that the bombs "were so big that there was little left of the Humvees that were hit." Insurgents have long been able to build bombs powerful enough to penetrate some armored vehicles. But the use of "shaped" charges could raise the threat considerably, military officials said. Since last month, at least three such bombs have been found, Lt. Gen. James T. Conway, the director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters at a Pentagon briefing this month. The shaped charge explosion fires a projectile "at a very rapid rate, sufficient to penetrate certain levels of armor," General Conway said, adding that weapons employing shaped charges had caused American casualties in the last two months. He did not give details.
A Pentagon official involved in combating the devices said shaped charges seen so far appeared crude but required considerable expertise, suggesting insurgents were able to draw on well-trained bomb-makers, possibly even rocket scientists from the former government. Shaped charges and rocket engines are similar, the official said. Infrared detonators are an advance over the more common method of rigging bombs to explode after an insurgent nearby presses a button on a cell phone, a garage-door opener or other device that gives off an electric signal. That approach is vulnerable to jammers, however, and a shift to infrared detonators, which rely on light waves, underscores the insurgents' resourcefulness.
------------
How good is the intelligence the joint DOD-CIA Task Force 16 IED reports are based on? This about says it all:
http://www.cq.com/public/20070119_homeland.html CQ HOMELAND SECURITY – SpyTalk
Jan. 19, 2007 – 8:08 p.m.
Spying in Baghdad: The CIA’s Real Mission Impossible
By Jeff Stein, CQ National Security Editor
Tactical intelligence — the locations and types of enemy troops and weapons — is also suffering from a lack of access to the population and almost nonexistent language skills on the part of both CIA and military intelligence personnel, say these same sources, all of whom have decades of experience in clandestine operations.
That limits “other covert ops, like providing detonators which will either not work or will explode prematurely in the hands of the bomb makers,” said the counterterrorism official.
“When you’re fighting an insurgency,” says an ex-senior CIA operative who helped rout al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, “you need hundreds and hundreds of informants.”
-----------------
Forwarded Message:
Subj: More on IEDs
Date: 1/21/2007 9:23:02 A.M. Eastern Standard Time
From: LEVEYMG
To:
[email protected] The use of shaped charges not new in Middle East insurgencies
Defense Update, an Israeli web site, admits that shaped charge IEDs aren't anything new in the region. This source states that Israeli ordinance experts merely "assumed" that Iran is the source of the more sophisticated devices. Actually, the knowledge and ability to make them is widespread, today, and depends most on the availability of materials (explosive shells, C4/solid rocket fuel, steel pipes and plate, and welding equipment) of which Iraq has an abundance:
http://www.defense-update.com/features/du-2-05/IED-2.ht... Shaped Charges IED in the Middle East
Shaped charge IEDs are not new in the Middle East insurgency wars. The IDF Bomb Disposal crews have uncovered, what they designate as Kela type IEDs, in Lebanon and in Gaza. Activated through catapulted triggering devices, the weapon uses an improvised chemical shaped charge type, between 10-50kg and can be launched from stand-off or electrical fuze from several meters distance. The initial types have been relatively ineffective against armored vehicles, but the heavier versions have caused catastrophic results in softer or lightly armored vehicles.
Other types of IED used by Hamas and Hezbollah are super-heavy "belly" explosive devices, also frequently packing some special types of shaped charge explosives to penetrate AFV hulls from the vulnerable bottom. Penetration by chemical jet stream into the fighting compartment activated catastrophic secondary explosions in unprotected internal tank ammunition stores. Israeli experts assumed that the know-how about the preparation and use of such devices was imported from Iranian demolition experts.
Mark
BATTLE LESSONS
What the generals don’t know.
by DAN BAUM
Issue of 2005-01-17
Posted 2005-01-10
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?050117fa_factI.E.D.s first appeared in large numbers along roadsides during an insurgent offensive in Baghdad, in November, 2003, during Ramadan, Benner said.
leveymg (1000+ posts)
Mon Jan-29-07 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. That just about sums it up.
Edited on Mon Jan-29-07 10:35 AM by leveymg
Iran has no reason to undermine the al-Maliki regime, which is dominated by the Shi'a SCIRI organization of Ayatollah al-Hakim and the more militant Shi'a sect led by al-Sadr.
The Sunnis boycotted the January 2005 Parliamentary elections. Large IEDs first emerged as a useful weapon during the early summer of 2005 in Sunni-held territories west and north of Baghdad. The second round of elections in December produced a more balanced outcome, but the Shi'a still held 60 percent of the seats, along with the Prime Minister's office and control over most of the ministries and the Army.
Once the Shi'a control in Baghdad was assured, Iran lost all reason to actively oppose the U.S.-backed central government. Iran will get its new western province, southern Iraq, when the U.S. leaves. That reality dawned on Saudi Arabia, which is Sunni, and they effectively put the brakes on the withdrawal. The Turks also opposed further progress toward formalization of a Kurdish state in North Iraq. Israel opposes any outcome that strengthens Iran. The Bush Administration thinks that somehow or another it can change the inevitable -- a three-state solution -- if they stall and bluster, and threaten World War long enough.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iraqi_insurgency Google is neither affiliated with the authors of this page nor responsible for its content.
On April 4, the Mahdi Army was directed to begin launching attacks on coalition targets and to seize control from Iraqi security forces. The Mahdi Army, which by then numbered from 3,000 to 10,000 men, organized quickly escalating violent riots and then a coordinated assault, surprising coalition and Iraqi forces and seizing control of Najaf, Kufa, al-Kut, and parts of Baghdad and southern cities like Nasiriyah, Amarah, and Basra. A widespread collapse of the Iraqi security forces ensued, with most deserting or defecting to the rebels rather than fighting. Soon, the southern and central portions of Iraq were beginning to erupt in urban guerilla combat as U.S. forces attempted to keep control and prepared for a counteroffensive.
A burst of tracer rounds emanate from Marine positions during fighting near Fallujah.
At the same time, the Sunni insurgency was rapidly worsening. On March 31, 2004, four private military contractors working for the U.S. military were killed and subsequently mutilated by insurgents and a crowd of residents in the city of Fallujah, long a particularly troublesome center of Sunni resistance to the U.S. presence. On the same day, 5 U.S. soldiers were killed by a large IED on a road a few miles outside of the city. The attacks took place as the Marines were taking over responsibility for al-Anbar province, in which Fallujah is located, from the U.S. Army. The intended Marine strategy of patrols, less aggressive raids, humanitarian aid, and close cooperation with local leaders was quickly suspended and the U.S. decided that it was time for a major assault to clear the city of insurgents. On April 4, U.S. and Iraqi forces launched Operation Vigilant Resolve to retake the city, which had clearly fallen completely into rebel hands. They met very stiff and well-organized resistance from the guerillas. The insurgent force defending Fallujah was believed to number over 2,000 men, divided into platoon-sized units. The guerillas used sophisticated tactics not seen before in the Iraq war, using standard infantry tactics such as indirect fire support, cover fire, and phased withdrawal. It was noted to resemble a Soviet-style “defense-in-depth” strategy, suggesting guidance from former members of the Iraqi Army rather than foreign jihadis who would more likely used tactics reminiscent of the mujahideen in Afghanistan. After three days of fighting with the U.S. Marines, the insurgents still held three-quarters of the city.
http://www.defense-update.com/features/du-2-05/IED-1.htmIED – Shaped Charges
< Page 2 of 4 pages >
A new type of IED consists of "shaped charge", located under the road surface or at the side of the road.
In these explosive devices, a cone (also known as concave) made of copper is covering an explosive charge creating a hollow space in front of and along the axis of the charge.
When the explosive is activated, the copper transforms into a forceful jetstream of molten metal also known as "plasma". This plasma jet easily perforates an unprotected steel armor, hitting the surface at a speed of 8,000 meters per second and extremely high pressure. If the plasma is not obstructed by a target within few meters, it solidifies into a kinetic slug which is less effective against heavy armor but is still devastating against softer targets. In both cases, the effect inside the target interior can be catastrophic, especially if it ignites unprotected ammunition stores, causing secondary explosions. Anti-tank shaped charges must be employed with utmost accuracy (activation distance, and design accuracy). Therefore, they are used primarily with buried mines, and lightweight anti-tank weapons.
Heavier IEDs which utilize the heavy slug concept can be used with roadside ambushes, detonating at a standoff distance from the target, inflicting devastating effect and fragmentation on the protected and light armored targets and their surrounding. To be most effective, the shaped charge has to be detonated at the right distance from the target. If it detonates too close to the steel armor, an optimal plasma jet cannot be formed dissipating the penetration effect. If detonated too far from the armor, the plasma jet is already unfocused and partly spent itself.
Shaped Charges IED in the Middle East
< Page 3 of 4 pages >
Shaped charge IEDs are not new in the Middle East insurgency wars. The IDF Bomb Disposal crews have uncovered, what they designate as Kela type IEDs, in Lebanon and in Gaza. Activated through catapulted triggering devices, the weapon uses an improvised chemical shaped charge type, between 10-50kg and can be launched from stand-off or electrical fuze from several meters distance. The initial types have been relatively ineffective against armored vehicles, but the heavier versions have caused catastrophic results in softer or lightly armored vehicles.
Other types of IED used by Hamas and Hezbollah are super-heavy "belly" explosive devices, also frequently packing some special types of shaped charge explosives to penetrate AFV hulls from the vulnerable bottom. Penetration by chemical jet stream into the fighting compartment activated catastrophic secondary explosions in unprotected internal tank ammunition stores. Israeli experts assumed that the know-how about the preparation and use of such devices was imported from Iranian demolition experts.
Accordingly, latest IDF versions of (Low Intensive Combat) LIC Merkava tanks have been fitted with armored steel base-plates, which can absorb the blast. US experts consider a similar trend to take place in Iraq, as know-how is transferred to Iraqi insurgents by Hezbollah and their Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps sabotage instructors. Iraqi insurgents have already adopted such tactics utilizing a variety of shaped charges. Some have been hung from overpasses others planted on roadsides, One of the heaviest IEDs used so far contained 600 pounds of explosives placed in an under devastated an Amphibious armored vehicle killing four marines. Another ambush which used four stacked mines buried in a road, destroyed another amphibious carrier and killed 14 marines. Other methods of operations call for placement of heavy IEDs in road underpasses, and most lately - mounted in suicide vehicles.
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