Telling Iowa Dem Analysis...IF Edwards wins, Why would Hillary want to finish 3rd?... LINK

[Blackhatjack]

You don't see the MSM reporting this, but Edwards has built quite an organization in Iowa. If he wins, Should Hillary finish 2nd or 3rd from a strategic point of view? Follow the link in the excerpted source to MyDD:

http://blogometer.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/11/1119_here_comes.html

"MyDD's Jerome Armstrong observes: "On the Democratic side, for every 1 ad that Edwards has run, Obama has ran 9, and Clinton has ran 5, and yet, when you look at who regularly attends the caucuses, John Edwards has the lead; and even among those polled is right there in the mix. I think given Obama's huge spend at this date, he's probably reached his ceiling of support in the state...If Obama comes in 3rd in Iowa, he's not recovering. The media will totally write him off, and Edwards will face the task of following up. If Edwards finishes 3rd, he's done, and Obama will have a one-on-one against Clinton in NH. If Clinton finishes 3rd, it's probably better for her than if she finishes 2nd, as then the story will still be a 3-way race (and that probably favors a comeback for her in NH)."

[Debi]

1. What if someone other than those three finishes 1, 2, 3?

:eyes:

Geez, there are eight Democrats running. :banghead:

[catmandu57]

2. Then msm and the repukes

haven't done their work of picking the dem candidate.

[Debi]

6. Thank you n/t

[Blackhatjack]

4. If you read the linked article I think that possibility is examined...n/t

[Debi]

8. delete - just forget it. n/t

[obnoxiousdrunk]

3. Since Edwards has been

living there for the past 4 years he shouldn't have a hard time winning.

[Blackhatjack]

5. I don't think anyone understands Iowa politics & its pecularities better than Edwards & his advisors

[spag68]

7. The way I read sentiment here

We can only hope that Edwards wins in Iowa. At least that way there will be real competition for the rest of the primary's. New ideas need to be talked about and explored. I'm so tired of the old lines from the Clinton camp. I'm tired of the centrist crap, I want a real liberal progressive. Then we will find out just where america stands.

[Broke Dad]

9. Re: Agreed!

Paul Krugman said the other night that Edwards has set the tone and pace with detailed progressive proposals in 2008!

He also said that Hillary is the least progressive and least likely to follow through on progressive reforms because of her alliances in Washington, DC.

[kimmerspixelated]

11. I'm with you, spag68!

Exactly right!

[cali]

10. In a brand new WaPo poll, Obama just took the lead. He's at 30%

Clinton is at 26% and Edwards is at 22%. For all the resources and time Edwards has poured into Iowa, he should be polling 1st. It's pretty significant that he's polling 3rd.

[Blackhatjack]

12. The ABC/WaPo poll made no provision for other factors. The Iowa Independent Power Ranking Does...

If you read the analysis you will find that the ABC/WaPo poll is not predictive in discerning the outcome because of other factors.

Just like 'national polling of Democrats' among JRE, HRC and BO is not predictive in discerning which would be most electable in the General Election.

[MadBadger]

14. Just wondering, what other factors are you talking about?

[Blackhatjack]

15. Here are a few

As pointed out in this this thread with a link to NY Magazine:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2312635&mesg_id=2312635

"Edwards team... is the class of the field." (NY Mag "Escape From Iowa") LINK

"More to the point, because of the bizarro nature of the caucuses—the participants must go out, on a frigid night, for a multi-hour ordeal of public declarations of support and multiple rounds of voting—the contest in Iowa is a slog-it-out ground war, in which organization and get-out-the-vote efforts are paramount. And here all sides concede privately that Edwards’s team, which has been in place essentially for five years, is the class of the field. When I ask Edwards if he’s concerned about signs of slippage in Iowa, he literally laughs in my face. “We have 99 county chairs and about 75 percent of the precincts covered with precinct chairs,” he says. “I know how to run a caucus campaign in Iowa—and so do the people who work for me.”

Other Iowa analysts have pointed to the fact that Edwards has targeted and has supporters who are more likely to actually show up to caucus in Iowa.

Among the group expected to show up and caucus, Edwards garners more second choice votes than HRC or BO.

[Blackhatjack]

16. Here is a link to the Iowa Independent Democratic Power Rankings... LINK

http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1472

[surfermaw]

13. He is first, and he hasn't used up much of his money, His adds to run

his