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A Lower Dollar is Good News - Ask Dennis

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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:10 PM
Original message
A Lower Dollar is Good News - Ask Dennis
Edited on Fri Nov-16-07 11:13 PM by lamprey
DU'ers talk about canceling NFTA, pulling out of the WTO, capping carbon. Well a lower dollar goes half way to meeting those goals. American businesses become more competitive against imports, American exporters do better in overseas markets - and if the Saudi's start talking Euro's - theres a your carbon cap.

Outsourcing - Less Attractive
Inflation - sure but so would a NAFTA/WTO pull out.
Chinese start with Euros - even better
Higher gas prices - yes - Does peak oil ring any bells
Recession - If consumers get spooked enough - maybe
Will the US dollar cease to be a reserve currency?
-No, it's the biggest market in the world

All in all a lower dollar advances the Kucinich agenda:
Love it or loathe it.
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Richard Steele Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. Well, bless your heart. nm
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Fovea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:17 PM
Response to Original message
2. I don't think it is a question of helping Dennis or not helping Dennis
The dollar is going to fall more longer. What can be an advantage, like a chance to retool our industries around sustainability and carbon footprint, and higher transportation costs will only be so in an environment where a bold vision meets political will.
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I agree
An it will be a difficult run for the president who takes the brunt of it, which was the basis of Ronald Reagan's line - Ask yourselves are you better off than you were four years ago.
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nightrider767 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Demo Candidates, get a clue from Reagan on that one
Love him or hate him, that's what the Democrats should be focusing on.

Not the war.

They're gonna sink with that game against the Republicans.

Wake up.
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Yep - remember that sign in Clinton's War Room
It's the Economy Stupid.
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nightrider767 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. I can see it now.....
Republican candidate: "Well here's my opponent whose party has done nothing but try to obstruct war funding, and now they are trying to tell you that they are strong on national defense and protecting this country. First they voted for the war, then against it".

It's the economy stupid!

It's about leaving our grandchildren a better country!

Wake up guys!
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Biden's wonderful line
a noun, a verb and 9/11
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. I said a long time ago that the dollar needed to fall
even though the short term consequence of steep inflation would be very painful. However, I never said it had to fall 60% and keep dropping! Enough is enough.

We're not feeling the consequences yet because China does not allow the Yuan to float against the dollar, thus preserving their main market as they loot our industry, thanks to the greed of multinational CEOs.

However, if the dollar falls much more, China will have no choice but to let its currency float and hope the other markets it has developed will fill the gap.

We're already seeing some reversal of offshoring as companies realize that Americans really don't like talking with "Bob" in Bhopal over a static filled phone line and are starting to avoid some of their products because of it.

That trend should continue as energy prices continue to increase, making production of goods and services near the consumption point more sensible.

However, the period now and in the immediate future is going to SUCK.
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. It will SUCK - and the next president is likely to carry the can
It might be "fun" politically to have it all hit the fan next year - but I try to remember - these are real people not numbers. Unemployment is not a game.
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lurky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:45 PM
Response to Original message
6. Not so bad if you're rich.
But for the 90% of us who are already living beyond our means, it's going to be brutal.
Inflation = You are now instantly poorer.
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. if wages go up at a similar rate (yeah right!)
you get to pay back debts with lower value dollars. But don't get me wrong, it's not good news at all.
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nightrider767 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-16-07 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. We couldn't retool in time
If china un-pegs, it would be a nightmare in this country.

The weak dollar might help a balanced economy. But keep in mind that ours is not, our biggest national product is services.

And most of those are not exportable....

So we don't see that much of a benefit from increased exports.

Our economy for years has been based on plenty of cheap money created by the Fed and cheap imports, including oil.

Now the chickens have come home to roost.
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Swamp Rat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:13 AM
Response to Original message
13. A lower dollar will destroy retirement savings for a lot of Americans
:(



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dantyrant Donating Member (278 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Exactly.
And this is the point, really.

We can talk about whether a strong dollar going forward is a good thing or not academically, but at the end of the day weakening the dollar hurts people's buying power.
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. No - retirement savings are not hit by a lower dollar as such
It's inflation - and there's not a 1 : 1 relationship between them. What's spooking the market is the house subprime collapse. It's interesting to note that when wall street took a steep dive recently, the dollar rose because (paradoxically) the Dollar was seen as a safe haven.

Look I don't wish hard times on anyone. I am struggling at best. I come over as arrogant but it's probably all that (now abandoned) law school stuff.

One of the points I was trying to make is if you pull out of trade agreements abruptly, you get the same result - inflation and difficult adjustment.

People have always been too quick to write off the US economy. It was a mess in 1992, but got smartly off the canvas. Inflation IS bad news but if you put up tariffs or quotas, abruptly thats what you get. Quotas are the reason that the price of sugar in the States is almost three times the prevailing world price. It is also the reason why everything has HFCS in it these days

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Swamp Rat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. Senior citizens with a fixed income will be seriously affected in a very very very bad way.
My father, who served this country with blood, sweat, and tears, will be hit hard by inflation, and so will millions of other retirees.


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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Believe me I don't want it or advocate it
I was taking a cheap shot I guess at all this talk of pulling out of the WTO on day one. I don't know what the course of the dollar will be. Nobody does. All this speculation is just that. I in no way intended to slight our senior citizens who have give so much to this country. My apologies.
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Blackhatjack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
16. Factor in inflation and Flat Wages and middle class/working poor are in trouble...
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denem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-17-07 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. With what little money I have I am willing to bet big time on flat wages n/t
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