Hillary thinks she'll get the votes of 1 out of 4 Republican women,

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20071019/D8SBVMO80.html

Pollster: GOP Women Will Support Clinton


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Oct 18, 8:31 PM (ET)


(AP) Democratic Presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. talks on a cell phone upon her...
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WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton 's top strategist predicted Thursday that up to a quarter of Republican women could support Clinton in the presidential contest - a claim that later drew sharp rebukes from the rival campaigns of Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani.

Mark Penn, Clinton's senior adviser and pollster, told reporters that private surveys suggested about 24 percent of Republican women could vote for Clinton because of "the emotional element of potentially having the first woman nominee."

Penn's claim that Clinton would win the support of GOP women was flatly challenged by Obama pollster Joel Benenson in an e-mail to reporters.

"Penn's assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee," Benenson said. "While it may not be her fault, Clinton appears to be as polarizing a figure as ever, showing the least crossover appeal of any of the Democratic candidates."

Penn also refuted a claim made frequently by Republican presidential contender Rudy Giuliani, suggesting he is the only candidate who can beat Clinton in a general election contest. Giuliani currently leads the GOP field in most national surveys.

"We have gone through a cycle with Giuliani," Penn said, referring to the 2000 New York Senate race in which Clinton and the former New York mayor briefly sparred.

Giuliani abandoned the race in May of that year after being diagnosed with prostate cancer. Penn said his polling at the time indicated Clinton had pulled ahead before Giuliani left the race after trailing him in the early part of the contest. Most public polling at the time found the race essentially tied when Giuliani dropped out.

Giuliani's campaign suggested Clinton's camp may be feeling a bit anxious.

"Dispatching her top strategist to make revisionist claims in an effort to convince the Democratic base Hillary can beat Rudy in the general election sounds a bit like campaign jitters to me," said Giuliani spokeswoman Katie Levinson.

[JTFrog]

1. Well she's been right about

so many things so far, it must be true.

[AtomicKitten]

2. Obama Camp Rebuts Penn's Figure

Obama camp rebuts Penn's figure
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/10/18/418679.aspx
Thursday, October 18, 2007 4:05 PM by Mark Murray
From NBC's Mark Murray

The Obama campaign has just issued a memo to reporters rebutting today's assertion by Clinton strategist Mark Penn that Hillary Clinton could pick up 24% of Republican female voters in a general election.

The memo's argument:
-- that a recent Cook/RT Strategies poll shows Clinton picking up only 7% of GOP women in a head-to-head match up with Giuliani.
-- that an aggregate Gallup survey showed only 18% of Republican females had a positive impression of Clinton, compared with 15% of Republican men.

The memo concludes: "The one thing that Penn's polling does show, however, is that the Clinton campaign is already taking the Democratic primaries for granted, by apparently already polling general election voters before a single Democrat has cast his or her vote. With more than two-and-a-half months before the first Democratic primary voter casts a vote, Clinton has evidently directed her pollster to prepare for the general election."

"As Barack Obama said last night on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno: Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

The full memo is below...

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Joel Benenson
DATE: October 18, 2007
RE: Clinton and Republican Women

Hillary Clinton's pollster's assertion about her potential with Republican women is completely undercut by many recent public polls.

At a Christian Science Monitor Breakfast at the Capitol Hilton in Washington, DC, Mark Penn this morning asserted Clinton could expect to receive the votes of 24% of Republican women in the general election.

Because women comprise approximately 45% of the Republican electorate, Penn's statement, if true, would mean the Clinton would win at least 11% of the Republican vote.

Penn's assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee.

In a recent Cook/RT Strategies Poll, in a head-to-head match-up against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton won only 7% of Republican women voters.

Indeed, more Democratic women crossover to the Republican side to vote against Clinton-9%--than Republican women crossover to vote for her.

Moreover, when Gallup aggregated three months of polling data on Clinton (June to September 2007), they found that Clinton was just as unpopular among Republican women as she was among Republican men.

Only 18% of Republican women had a favorable opinion of Clinton, just above the 15% of Republican men who had a favorable opinion.

While it may not be her fault, Clinton appears to be as polarizing figure as ever, showing the least crossover appeal of any of the Democratic candidates.

When the Wall Street Journal asked Republicans which of the Democratic candidates they would be most comfortable with as President, Clinton was the least named, with only 14% naming Clinton, half the number who named Sen. Obama.

Worried about the effect Clinton could have on Democratic chances to maintain control of Congress, Democratic elected officials have publicly stated that Clinton's polarizing image would do damage to the hopes of other Democrats seeking office.

In an AP article several weeks ago, interviews with 40 Democratic candidates, consultants, and party chairs "from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races."

One Democratic Congressman from the West said that a Clinton candidacy would likely cost him his seat.

Indiana State Rep. Dave Crooks, a Democrat, said, "She's just so polarizing," adding that "she would be a drag" on Democratic candidates, pulling down their votes 3 to 4 points.

Said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C. Democratic Party, "The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so damn unpopular. I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't."

The one thing that Penn's polling does show, however, is that the Clinton campaign is already taking the Democratic primaries for granted, by apparently already polling general election voters before a single Democrat has cast his or her vote.

With more than two-and-a-half months before the first Democratic primary voter casts a vote, Clinton has evidently directed her pollster to prepare for the general election.

As Barack Obama said last night on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno:

"Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

[MethuenProgressive]

3. Actually, it's Mark Penn who thinks that.

But who cares about accuracy, anyway?

[Sadie4629]

4. Remember Mondale-Ferraro?

Reagan won in an overwhelming landslide. I don't think having her on the ticket helped much with the female GOP vote.

[jpgray]

5. There were a lot of causes for the Mondale-Ferraro loss, might they have mitigated her effect?

[Sadie4629]

7. Maybe

But, still, women didn't vote for her in droves just because it was the first time ever that there was a woman on the ticket.

I think women will vote for a Presidential candidate based on his/her stands on the issues, and not just as a symbol of progress.

[jpgray]

8. That I think is true. It's kind of offensive to assume women will vote for -any- fellow woman

It does allow female voters to identify more strongly with Hillary, however. Whether that translates to support does depend on a lot of other factors, in my view, but she does have that advantage.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Jesus Christ Wouldn't Have Beat Reagan In 1984

The nation was coming out of the greatest economic downturn since The Great Depression.Unemployment
had reached 10.8% in the Fall of 1982 and there were fears it would go much higher...By the time the election came around unemployment was at 7.2% and falling...

Maybe a better candidate than Mondale could have mitigated the damage but any Democratic candidate was a sacrificial lamb as was Bob Dole in 1996...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. That Was Before Rudy's Outreach Program To Women

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8

[ThomWV]

10. About 1 out of 4 Registered Democratic Men Too

[proud2BlibKansan]

11. And the other three?

Who do they support? :)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. He Pulled It Out Of His ,,,,Err, You Know Where

That's why his prognostication stinks...

[ThomWV]

14. 1 for Ron Paul, one stays at home, the third writes in his dog's name.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Ron Paul Says He's Not Running

And if he runs I don't see him getting much more than the 0.47% he got in 1988...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul

Hard to see him doing much better this time...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. Huh> not running? he hasn't announced? why is he in the debates?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Not Running As A Third Party

eom

[TheFarseer]

18. really?! I think he'd pull in at least 3%

not that he would run, but he's a much bigger name than he was in 1988. Which still doesn't change your main point, but just sayin' . . . . . . .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Pat Buchanan Was A Bigger Name And Ran On The Reform Party Ticket In 00

And Got 0.50% of the vote...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. You Do Know That Only 27% Of White Males Identify Themselves As Democrats

So that group has pretty much winnowed themselves out...

[renie408]

15. She might be right.

I have a friend who has always voted GOP and she told me a month or so ago that she was going to vote for Hillary if she got the nomination.