Thomas Barnett: The coming strike on Iran

[Bolo Boffin]

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2007/09/the_coming_strike_on_iran_1.html

This is how I would expect it to go as well: build the case, strike just over border, wait for response to justify larger strikes and then light them up.

If Iran falls for it?

Then, quite frankly, the mullahs get what they deserve for being such dumb-asses. They should be seeking some serious international insulation, but instead they allow Ahmadinejad's mouth to dig the graves of those citizens who will inevitably die. Not that they care. In fact, it suits their purposes quite nicely.

...Iran should be plenty scared of a large-scale military strike, but, of course, its hardline leadership is not scared, because we could offer them no clearer stabilization program.

Ahmadinejad won't win re-election in 2009 without prompting such a strike, so I guess it has to happen.

I mean, if Tel Aviv, Riyadh and Tehran all want it to happen, who are we to say no?

Articles Barnett is basing this on:

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070917/OPINION/709170341/-1/LOCAL17

So what are the diplomatic opportunities that might defuse this growing state of tension? I count four, and each of them would require the Bush administration to conduct more aggressive diplomacy:

Lebanon. The moment may finally be ripe for a bargain that ends the year-long standoff between Hezbollah and the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. The opportunity for compromise would be agreement on a new president to replace Emile Lahoud. U.S. officials agree with most Lebanese that the right choice would be someone who isn't closely identified with Syria or with the U.S. But it will take some deft maneuvering (and American help) to identify the right candidate and close the deal.

The Palestinian issue. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads back to the Middle East this week to coax Israelis and Palestinians toward agreement on a basic framework for a Palestinian state. The two sides are tantalizingly close, but they will need a strong push from Rice -- probably in the form of an American draft document that summarizes points of potential agreement. Rice would upset the Israelis, but if she can produce an agreement in principle that could be ratified at a regional conference in November, she would disarm Iran's most potent propaganda weapon.

Syria. Petraeus and Crocker indicated last week that security assistance from Syria in recent weeks has cut the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq by nearly half. Many top U.S. military officers think the time to engage Syria is now; so do some senior Israeli officials. The Bush administration should be talking with Damascus, quietly.

The Persian Gulf. America's top military commanders in the Gulf favor an "incidents at sea" agreement with Iran that would reduce the danger of a confrontation. The big problem isn't the regular Iranian Navy, but the naval forces of the Revolutionary Guard.

The United States and Iran are playing a game of "chicken" in the Middle East. A collision would be ruinous for both. Each side needs to be careful to avoid miscalculation and act in ways that avert a crackup.

Telegraph: Bush setting America up for war with Iran

Senior American intelligence and defence officials believe that President George W Bush and his inner circle are taking steps to place America on the path to war with Iran, The Sunday Telegraph has learnt.

Pentagon planners have developed a list of up to 2,000 bombing targets in Iran, amid growing fears among serving officers that diplomatic efforts to slow Iran's nuclear weapons programme are doomed to fail.

Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a military showdown with Iran.

Now it has emerged that Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, who has been pushing for a diplomatic solution, is prepared to settle her differences with Vice-President Dick Cheney and sanction military action.

After Bush and Blair didn't bite on the British naval personnel being held by Iran, I thought their bluff had been completely called. It looks like not. And the switch from trying to work with the Shia to backing the Sunnis in Iraq is just one more sign that war is on the march.

And all those "surge" soldiers are now fully acclimatized to the Iraqi theater. And if Reid and Pelosi and other Congressional Democrats sign off on this, the split in the Democratic Party would be fatal to the 2008 hopes of any Democratic candidate.

And the funny thing is, Barnett completely doubts that the huge 2000 site bombing plan would even put a dent in Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon. The only thing it would do is keep every ruling party in power.

Screw the dead Iranian citizens. Ahmadinejad, the Iranian mullahs, George Bush, and the Republicans are about to get their war on.

[Bolo Boffin]

1. One bump for the afternoon crowd. n/t