Can You Find Anywhere On These Graphs Where It Shows The "Surge" Working ???

[WillyT]

Link: http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/USfatalities.html

Exactly what metrics are they using???

:shrug:

[muntrv]

1. Fuzzy math.

[kenfrequed]

2. Math?

We are living in a post math world. We don't have time for numbers anymore unless they are the numbers 9 and 11.

Seriously this surge report (as has been REPEATEDLY reported here) is cooked by the white house. It cannot be believed.

[pansypoo53219]

11. bush uses

velvet arithmetic. completely different thing.

[Up2Late]

3. Nope. More statistics at this link.

<http://icasualties.org/oif/>

And let us please not forget the men and women who are still dying in "Operation Enduring Freedom" as that operation continues to go down hill.

(Afghanistan)
<http://www.icasualties.org/oef/>

[Hissyspit]

4. See here, as well:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Hissyspit/2341

[HughMoran]

5. Same shite, different day...

or year in this case.

[krispos42]

6. Well, once we do a double integration procedure on the first graph...

We'll find the casualty rate is almost ZERO!!!!

I bet right now BushCo is really happy about calculus.

[EST]

7. I suspect you forgot to include one particular graph--

the one titled "republican desperation."

[GeorgeGist]

8. One must assume that there is a correlation between ...

the number of Americans dying and the number of Iraqi's dying in the surge. Death is the metric of war.

[WillyT]

9. Well... There's This:

Iraq Body Count Running at Double Pace

BAGHDAD (AP) -- This year's U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.

Some of the recent bloodshed appears the result of militant fighters drifting into parts of northern Iraq, where they have fled after U.S.-led offensives. Baghdad, however, still accounts for slightly more than half of all war-related killings -- the same percentage as a year ago, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

The tallies and trends offer a sobering snapshot after an additional 30,000 U.S. troops began campaigns in February to regain control of the Baghdad area. It also highlights one of the major themes expected in next month's Iraq progress report to Congress: some military headway, but extremist factions are far from broken.

In street-level terms, it means life for average Iraqis appears to be even more perilous and unpredictable.

The AP tracking includes Iraqi civilians, government officials, police and security forces killed in attacks such as gunfights and bombings, which are frequently blamed on Sunni suicide strikes. It also includes execution-style killings -- largely the work of Shiite death squads.

The figures are considered a minimum based on AP reporting. The actual numbers are likely higher, as many killings go unreported or uncounted. Insurgent deaths are not a part of the Iraqi count.

<snip>

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iraq-Counting-the-Dead.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

:shrug:

[AZBlue]

10. More:

We need something more extreme than red here:


Of course Bush probably looks at the increasing bars and thinks that's good:

[WillyT]

12. Kick !!!

:kick:

[kenny blankenship]

13. That's the problem with any trend imputed to the end of a sampling period

You've got to let the graph data roll out quite a bit more to see if the alleged trend really exists or not. Our line ramps up from 4 years ago - Ok so if we want to confirm or deny the claim of a downward trend at the right edge of the current graph, we'd need to collect a further period of data some fraction of the length of the existing sample period.

How about 2 or 3 more years and let's see what the trendlines look like?

What? You say you don't want to put up with three more years of this shit?

Ok what about 10 years? General Petraeus says an insurgency war like the one we're in lasts on average for 10 years.

Well, if you really don't want to have Americans fighting on for up to 10 more years in Iraq to prove or disprove the proposition that the Surge (due to begin expiration in Spring-Summer of next year) had a significant effect on the level of violence in Iraq, then you have no business nominating a candidate for President who isn't for a full & prompt withdrawal. Otherwise you will half step your way to another 4 or 8 year commitment to the Iraqi quagmire.