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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 06:52 AM
Original message
See You in September (Not Good)
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/08/craig_crawfords_1600_...

See You in September
By Craig Crawford | 8:30 PM; Aug. 10, 2007 |


Next months showdown with Congress over Iraq looms as George W. Bushs last corral for maintaining the war agenda that is destined to be his legacy. Despite a lot of shaky nerves in Congress among his fellow Republicans, do not bet against the president once again outwitting a Democratic leadership determined to reverse the administrations prosecution of the war.

Even though polls show that most Americans dislike Bushs handling of Iraq, his political allies insist the public will not back anything that smacks of a congressional takeover of the situation. They are not going to stand for a diminution of the commander in chiefs war powers without a viable alternative, said Mary Matalin, a former senior White House adviser.

snip//

That argument could be well served by the very event that Democrats had expected to be the turning point toward their anti-war point of view: a progress report from the military man running things in Iraq. Democrats once thought that Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, who is widely respected by both parties for his expertise and candor, would come forth in September with a bleak assessment of the situation on the ground and that his pessimism would justify a meltdown of GOP support for Bushs course in Iraq. But a different story is now emerging from the Petraeus camp, suggesting instead that he will report that the surge is working well enough to keep it going. And he is expected to conclude forcefully that withdrawal would only lead to bigger problems for both the United States and Iraq.

Encouraged by such previews of the Petraeus report, the White House is tapping sympathetic senators, including Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Independent Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, for what amounts to a full-scale political campaign to thwart the next drive against the war in the Senate, where the balance of power in the debate resides.

Even in the House, where a majority is clearly against the war, plenty of Republicans from conservative districts are still willing to go to bat against a withdrawal plan. There are actually a few Republicans left who can explain and defend the policy and, as importantly, the consequences of defeat, Matalin said.

Even those pesky opinion polls, which have bedeviled Bush for so long, are beginning to show signs of better news to come for him. The latest Gallup Poll found that the proportion of those who said the additional troops are making the situation better rose 9 percentage points in the past month, to 31 percent; the share of those who said it was not making much difference dropped by 10 points, to 41 percent. To counter the positive developments the president will surely spotlight in next months debate, Democrats will be in the unenviable position of having to argue that the troops are actually failing. As a consequence, they will once again be portrayed by the White House as defeatists who do not support the troops.

more...

http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/08/craig_crawfords_1600_...
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midnight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
1. We need to remind ourselves and our elected officials that
Edited on Sat Aug-11-07 07:08 AM by midnight
our soldiers are not the ones failing, it is the policy's that seem to be the failing element. One fact that seems to be apparent over and over again, was the lack of any planning to leave. P.S. Bring them home.....
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:16 AM
Original message
we also need to remind ourselves that this will be sold by the media
Edited on Sat Aug-11-07 07:18 AM by bigtree
the same media which is telling us right now that Bush will prevail. Crawford may be a bit more balanced than the rest, but he's really just another shill in the pack.

btw, I really hate these cynical articles. They don't deserve to be presented as a rational argument.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
4. But what he writes could too easily happen, and that's worrying. nt
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. he writes it in a cynical fashion to establish the mindset
he's not just some disaffected, outside observer. He's part of the same machine which has rationalized all of Bush's crimes and abuses, and has presented the arguments against those abuses as partisan - equal ground between Bush's lies and the truth - instead of just reporting and informing of what he KNOWS to be right or wrong.

Why should we enable him by allowing him to frame the debate? He's obviously coming down on the side of Bush, trying to convince us that Bush will prevail because some poll ticked up a few points from the bottom of the scale. And, he thinks Lieberman will dictate the action??
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 08:02 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. but as he says, Dems are obligated to try--and we need to encourage them to be b
brave. and tell them we will stand behind them. They need to know this.Thom Hartman reminded me of this last week. I think he is right.





.......For Democrats, Victory Through Defeat?

Nothing less than the constitutional calendar dictates that Bush needs to survive only this next test to keep his Iraq policy intact. After September he will just have to run out the clock on Congress for another 15 months not a tough task for him, considering that he has successfully deflected the growing anti-war forces on Capitol Hill for the past couple of years. Even last years midterm election, transferring control of Congress to the Democrats, has so far not deterred this presidents fierce resolve to stay his course.

The fall may be the only moment Congress is going to have to force President Bush to change directions in Iraq, said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. Its highly unlikely there will be another confluence of events that can push this president to jump the track hes been on.

Still, Democrats are obligated to try, or they risk angering the legions of anti-war voters in their political base. Oddly, the partys best-case scenario could be failure. If Democrats muster enough votes to override a Bush veto and impose a new policy on him, theyll hand a rhetorical sword to the president and his GOP allies, who will argue for the rest of their natural lives that the United States could have won the war if Democrats had not succumbed to defeat. There is also a short-term advantage to Democrats in losing the September showdown: They could enter the 2008 campaign arguing that only a vote for a Democrat is a vote for real change in Iraq.

And that is one measure of Bushs determination to keep control of this unpopular war through the coming debate: To do so, he seems more than ready to sacrifice Republican control of the White House or any hopes for his party to retake Congress next year.
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. Patraeus + Candor = Oxymoron
I believe the democrats will believe this BS from Crawford and hand bush more money for the occupation.
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:29 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. ...and if they do...fuckem. it will be the last straw for me.
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. I had my last straw
about five outrages ago.
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jimshoes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. Even if we "win" in Iraq
we've still lost. Everything this administration told us would happen, hasn't. We're not safer, there aren't fewer terrorists, there were no WMD's, they didn't stand up so we could stand down, we haven't brought democracy to the greater middle east, our civil liberties have vanished, there is a criminal enterprise running our government, the government can spy on everyone without warrants or court oversight but will not submit to oversight themselves, the Attorney General is less than trustworthy, a paid political hack is shaping policy, the Vice President is a rogue administration unto himself, the Army is broken, our infrastructure is crumbling, our houses are losing value by the hour, our money is becoming worthless, but Iraq is being spun as a positive. Somehow this is supposed to make me feel good? I'm not interested in buying your useless war george, I want my country back and you gone.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
8. based on these polls, the media/WH is convincing many that the Plan is working. Also
recall that there is a rise (small but significant) is Bush polls.
Something is happening and it is not good.


.....The latest Gallup Poll found that the proportion of those who said the additional troops are making the situation better rose 9 percentage points in the past month, to 31 percent; the share of those who said it was not making much difference dropped by 10 points, to 41 percent. To counter the positive developments the president will surely spotlight in next months debate, Democrats will be in the unenviable position of having to argue that the troops are actually failing. As a consequence, they will once again be portrayed by the White House as defeatists who do not support the troops.
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. Those of us who still watch MSTEE VEE Media know that the "Lock Down"
Edited on Sat Aug-11-07 11:34 AM by KoKo01
started when Scooter Libby was Pardoned. From then on there was no thread of any change from the Democrats. And, if there was any doubt the actions of many Dems in voting to give Bush everything he wants, sealed the deal.

Bush's poll numbers will go up. Gonzo will stay and everything will go as they planned it. Without any resistence...people learn just to "get along." After all, they think... Bush must be doing something right if Dems agree with him all the time. :-(
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leftchick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #8
19. here is one explanation
Spinning the Iraq War Death Toll

http://www.consortiumnews.com/2007/080907.html

Mindful of the political fallout from a rising American death toll in Iraq, the U.S. military has pulled back from widespread use of aggressive tactics on the ground this summer, helping to explain a modest reduction in the number of soldiers killed in July, according to intelligence and military sources.

The number of U.S. military fatalities declined to 80 in July after three months of a death toll in the triple digits (104 in April, 126 in May, and 101 in June). The lower death toll has been cited by some U.S. commanders in Iraq and Bush administration supporters in Washington as a sign that President George W. Bushs surge of U.S. troops is working.

But the sources told me that the lower death toll reflects not some impending victory but just a slowdown in the U.S. ground offensive after the early phases of the surge, which poured more than 20,000 additional troops into Iraq. The sources cited a variety of factors contributing to the decline in U.S. casualties.

One U.S. military source said the American troops have not pushed as far from their forward operating bases as the U.S. news media has been led to believe. When Bush unveiled the surge, a key goal was to get American forces out of their secure bases and into small police outposts in Iraqi neighborhoods.

The exposure of U.S. troops to the additional hazard of such front-line assignments was a factor in the upswing of American deaths in the early months of the surge. This forward positioning also presented risks for U.S. logistical personnel who had to brave roadside bombs and ambushes to supply these isolated units.

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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
10. Are Congressional Dems so mentally retarded that they really counted
on Petraeus giving a gloom-and-doom report? EVERYONE knows that Petraeus is going to give the surge a thumbs-up--everyone. I don't believe it--they may be ineffective teabags, but they're not politically naive. However, the rest of his predictions will probably come true. Dems caved against the FISA/terror issue, and they'll cave again in the face of Petraeus, Goober Graham and Lieberworm. Don't want to be unpatriotic! Sick.
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karlrschneider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Sure, Betrayus gets to write his own report card!
It'll be an A-minus.
:mad: :eyes:
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Anita Garcia Donating Member (869 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
11. kick and rec'd
Thanks for posting this!
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
12. The cheerleaders are throwing their pom-poms in the trash.
I think we have reached consensus here that this congress has failed to respect in any way the mandate they were given in november to change the course we are on. It is over until 2009.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #12
16. the majority of our legislators have done the right thing
the minority of Democrats who've 'caved' have been effective (and a ready tag for those who want to portray the entire party as complicit) because of the narrow majority we hold.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. That particular argument fails to make any difference
in an analysis of this congress and its role in the neocon agenda: it is enabling that agenda. It is doing so with the complicity of our party's congressional leadership. The fact that the majority of our party's congressional delegation vote against the agenda that is, with the complicity of the leadership, marshalled through congress, might be of some solace to you, it is not to me.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. alright then, put it on the leadership
be honest. I don't need solace.
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Prisoner_Number_Six Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
14. He has no need to worry
The Dems left their balls in a box and locked the box in a safe and threw the safe into the deepest chasm of the largest ocean they could find.

They're a buncha nutless wonders, and they chopped 'em off all by themselves.

Gotta keep that ol' powder dry!
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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
17. Consider Crawford's source... Matalin? Gimme a friggin break.

...this is just a rovian play to rub salt in internacine democratic wounds. Not that the wound isn't self-inflicted, but there's blood in the water now and so the sharks are circling to see if they can make themselves maximally disruptive.

The whole article is basically Crawford speaking for Matalin when he's not quoting her directly. Crawford should be ashamed to act as her mouthpiece.
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scarletwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
18. "do not bet against the president once again outwitting a Democratic leadership" - I for sure won't!
No, quite the contrary, I FULLY expect the bushies to "outwit" (what a dainty euphonism!) the Democratic leadership. The evidence is overwhelmingly obvious that after 6 years of bush pulling the same crap over and over, the Dems have never mustered even the will -- much less a plan -- to come up with a counter-strategy.

It's gotten too pathetic to even want to watch anymore...

sw
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kenny blankenship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
20. Here's what they have to hit: Maliki's Government has collapsed, Sunnis all out, Sadrists out
Edited on Sat Aug-11-07 02:04 PM by kenny blankenship
Petraeus has been arming ANTI-GOVERNMENT SUNNI MILITIAS WITH U.S. BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS.

General Petraeus is fomenting a Sunni secession from the sovereign recognized government of Iraq--which is a violation of the U.N. Charter--and he is dragging us into the center of a civil war.

Or, they could roll over like they always do and offer Bush their ass. You'd almost think he would be tired of fucking that ass by now...but there's only 16 more months left in his term. Might as well pound that ass all the way to the finish line.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Interesting take.
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AntiFascist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 03:37 PM
Response to Original message
23. I really think much of this is just a distraction....

what matters, most of all to Republicans, is big oil's ability to grab the oil in Iraq. This would allow Republicans to justify the incredible costs of the war. It all hinges on the Iraqi government's acceptance of an oil law that gives 80% of the profits to the foreign oil companies.
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-11-07 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
24. Dems don't have to show TROOPS failing, they have to illustrate how BUSH'S DIPLOMACY is failing
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