WTF!!! Lowest death toll this year. Spread the good news everyone.

[Dawgs]

The only reason it's considered progress is because of how bad 2007 has been.

82 is the fewest number of deaths in 2007.
82 would be tied for third worse month in 2006.
82 would have been the fourth worse month in 2005.
82 is 7.5 deaths above the average over the whole war.

Military Fatalities: By Month
Period US UK Other* Total Avg Days
7-2007 74 7 1 82 2.65 31
6-2007 101 7 0 108 3.6 30
5-2007 126 3 2 131 4.23 31
4-2007 104 12 1 117 3.9 30
3-2007 81 1 0 82 2.65 31
2-2007 81 3 1 85 3.04 28
1-2007 83 3 0 86 2.77 31
12-2006 112 1 2 115 3.71 31
11-2006 70 6 2 78 2.6 30
10-2006 106 2 2 110 3.55 31
9-2006 72 3 2 77 2.57 30
8-2006 65 1 0 66 2.13 31
7-2006 43 1 2 46 1.48 31
6-2006 61 0 2 63 2.1 30
5-2006 69 9 1 79 2.55 31
4-2006 76 1 5 82 2.73 30
3-2006 31 0 2 33 1.06 31
2-2006 55 3 0 58 2.07 28
1-2006 62 2 0 64 2.06 31
12-2005 68 0 0 68 2.19 31
11-2005 84 1 1 86 2.87 30
10-2005 96 2 1 99 3.19 31
9-2005 49 3 0 52 1.73 30
8-2005 85 0 0 85 2.74 31
7-2005 54 3 1 58 1.87 31
6-2005 78 1 4 83 2.77 30
5-2005 80 2 6 88 2.84 31
4-2005 52 0 0 52 1.73 30
3-2005 35 1 3 39 1.26 31
2-2005 58 0 2 60 2.14 28
1-2005 107 10 10 127 4.1 31
12-2004 72 1 3 76 2.45 31
11-2004 137 4 0 141 4.7 30
10-2004 64 2 2 68 2.19 31
9-2004 80 3 4 87 2.9 30
8-2004 66 4 5 75 2.42 31
7-2004 54 1 3 58 1.87 31
6-2004 42 1 7 50 1.67 30
5-2004 80 0 4 84 2.71 31
4-2004 135 0 5 140 4.67 30
3-2004 52 0 0 52 1.68 31
2-2004 20 1 2 23 0.79 29
1-2004 47 5 0 52 1.68 31
12-2003 40 0 8 48 1.55 31
11-2003 82 1 27 110 3.67 30
10-2003 44 1 2 47 1.52 31
9-2003 31 1 1 33 1.1 30
8-2003 35 6 2 43 1.39 31
7-2003 48 1 0 49 1.58 31
6-2003 30 6 0 36 1.2 30
5-2003 37 4 1 42 1.35 31
4-2003 74 6 0 80 2.67 30
3-2003 65 27 0 92 7.67 12

[RaleighNCDUer]

1. Or, as it was put in a different thread, it's the HIGHEST July to date.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2936515

July 06 - 43
July 05 - 54
July 04 - 54
July 03 - 48

[frogcycle]

3. you beat me to it

[frogcycle]

2. and if you look at annual patterns

there has been a significant "dip" every July.

Same thing in Feb.

This years "dip" is down to 74(US); last years was down to 43


I can't prove that the cyclic patterns are meaningful, but by the same token it is inappropriate, as you point out, to take a myopic view of a 7-month period and sing hosannahs

I looked at the pattern over the past couple of months, and there is indeed an shift toward baghdad/IED as the dominant location and cause. I don't have my data at work, but as i recall more than half of the 74 were such; same in June. There was an eerie silence in mid-July - after 26 deaths in the first week, there were "only" about1/day for the next 8 days or so. That coincided with the hoorah over the non-vote and overnighter. Tony Snow even made an offhand comment in a presser that "casualties are down."

With the nature of the "mission" they can control casualty rates the way a dam controls a stream. Keep the troops on base and they don't drive over IEDs. I would not be so cynical as to think they would do that intentionally - unless they made a big deal aout the reduction... oh, wait

[frogcycle]

4. same data graphically

http://icasualties.org/oif/US_chart.aspx