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Edited on Sun Apr-12-09 02:36 PM by Drunken Irishman
The economy is going to turn around, even if it's by the smallest of margins. Anything outside of things getting worse (which won't happen) will be a victory for Obama. These Republicans know it and I think you're going to start seeing the big hitters step aside in the next three years.
The fact is, unless your name is Adlai Stevenson, you're not going to win the nomination of your party a second time on the heels of an embarrassing blowout. And that's what the Republican will be facing in four years. So these younger candidates, like Sanford, Jindal and Palin, aren't going to put it all on the line, get their asses handed to them and then fall into obscurity nationally for the rest of their political lives. Hell, even Nixon had to leave the scene for eight years and that was AFTER he narrowly lost to Kennedy.
A blowout ends everything.
I could see Romney running because he thinks far higher of himself than most. But, as was proven last year, he isn't very well liked. Romney faded badly in the Republican Primaries and I don't see him catching much fire again.
In the end, that leaves a retread like Gingrich. He's essentially the 2012's Bob Dole. A has-been in the party that will only get the nomination because no one else wants it. Sort of a tip of the hat to his seniority in the party. Gingrich will rally the base, turnoff moderate voters and lose in a landslide, retire from politics officially and then you'll start seeing the likes of Sarah Palin, Mark Sanford and Bobby Jindal, as they ready for 2016.
Now the question we should be asking: Who do the Democrats run in 2016? Biden almost certainly won't run for president in eight years and I'm not even sure he'll be on the ticket in four (I think he could retire). We might be facing a similar situation in 2016 as we did last year, an open primary for both parties. Which I actually think benefits the Democrats, since Americans can easily get party fatigue and vote against the vice president. But we'll see.
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