McCain Loses More Ground on Electoral Map as he Waves the White Flag in Michigan

[ultraist]

Run time: 03:44 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D24eHEbK6w   Posted on YouTube: October 03, 2008 By YouTube Member: Views on YouTube: 0   Posted on DU: October 03, 2008 By DU Member: ultraist Views on DU: 1584

 

[thereismore]

1. McCraps playing major defense in Indiana. Yes! nt

[No Passaran]

2. Victory is so close

[ultraist]

6. Indeed

Early voting has started in a number of states. Opinions are hardening.

Barring a major mistake by Obama, I don't see how McCain can pull this off.

And, considering in the two years of his campaign, Obama has yet to make a tremendous mistake, it doesn't seem likely he will now.

Knock on wood!

[rniel]

3. It's funny

It's looking like a landslide yet the media always wants to paint it like it's up for grabs. They really want their horse race or they have nothing to talk about on tv all day.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

15. If you're well funded and cheating, It's harder to lose in a landslide

In 1972, McGovern lost in a landslide for a lot of reasons. His VP turned into a huge liability and had to be replaced. His campaign was horribly managed and he didn't have enough money to counter-attack with advertising down the home stretch, before the election.

The pugs will always have money and Psychotic Sarah won't be replaced. The fundi-loons like her.

But I smell a margin that even the pug vote rigging machinery can't overcome and I'm getting a little excited about it.

[rniel]

4. .

w

[Jack Rabbit]

5. It seems less of a surprise to me that the GOP is pulling out of Michigan

than that they have to fight for Indiana.

McCain is down three pawns, but he may have some counterplay left.

[ultraist]

7. Counterplay?

It's possible but I don't see what it would be.

McCain is having to defend himself in states like NC and VA that have gone to Republicans for decades. Not looking good for McCain.

[MindMatter]

9. And where does he go? To Colorado

OK. I can see an argument that you have to hold Colorado. But if they were willing to give up Michigan to marshal resources for a desperation play, why spend ANY resources in Indiana?

Or turn it around. He has a better chance of holding Indiana's 11 electors than he does of winning either Colorado or Nevada (14 electors total). Given the vast distance he has to cover to compete in NV and CO, I'd be inclined to stay and fight in the rust belt and southeast where you can pack 5 big events in 5 states every day.

Why aren't they doing this? Probably because their polling has told them they aren't going to get PA, MI, WI, or MN. And if that is true, then they MUST have CO and AZ. So Obama has them in a real bind, running their asses all over the place trying to find any place to scrape together a few electors.

And why is Palin in Dallas raising money instead of campaigning? For the same reason that they shut down Michigan. They are running out of money.

[Supply Side Jesus]

13. Good Analysis

He is so desperate he's in Southern Colorado today...LONG time Dem stronghold. If Southern Colo comes out in force, Colo will swing to Obama. I never thought Obama would be pulling ahead like he is. Not counting the chickens yet, but somebody please pinch me!

[tclambert]

14. This is what I've been looking for

Ever since I heard McCain was giving up on Michigan, I've been saying he's got to be running short of money. And I've been looking for the media to play it up. The political analysts love to discuss inside campaign strategies. If McCain is having trouble managing his campaign funds, and he's conceding states already, the talking heads will love making fun of his campaign. They can speculate which state he will concede next, and if it will lead to a cascade of lost states. I already heard one pundit call the concession of Michigan a mistake. It's blood in the water.

[MindMatter]

16. Of course he's short on money

If he had plenty of money, he'd keep running ads in MI, even if he didn't figure it was worth his time to campaign there.

Pulling out is all about money, and all about what his internal polling is telling him. When the campaign pulled out, the public polls had Obama up only by 4 or 5 points in MI. That's not enough of a spread to give up on such a big state. McCain knew something that wasn't showing up in the public polls.

Or maybe he didn't. The guy is borderline nuts. He fancies himself the high stakes gambler. Maybe he just woke up with a hunch that he should pull out of Michigan.

[Jack Rabbit]

10. I didn't say it was looking good for McCain

I may be giving him too much credit.

He's got a month left to find some winning strategy, but if it isn't showing in a couple of weeks, put a fork in him.

When Wall Street panicked, his fortunes went south. He's too closely associated with Bush and deregulation. It didn't help that his running mate couldn't open her mouth without something ignorant coming out.

Obama will win with close to 60% of the popular vote and over 300 EVs.

[MindMatter]

8. Do these morons even listen to themselves?

"We're going to move Michigan to 'leaning Obama' since McCain is essentially abandoning the state"

I was prepared to say that was absolutely the stupidest thing I had heard anybdy say all year until I heard him sat, "You're right, if he loses Florida and Ohio after conceding Michigan, it might be all over."

"MIGHT BE ALL OVER" ??? WTF??? If he loses Florida, Ohio, and Michigan, it is a freaking landslide of Biblical proportions, you moron.

[vinylsolution]

11. Like I said before....

... Don't be fooled by this apparent retreat. This is a tactical re-deployment.

The 'foreclosure fix' is in. Thousands of working and middle class former homeowners in Michigan will be denied their right to vote.

McCain is pulling his staff out because they know they've already got Michigan in the bag, and can now turn their attention to other battleground states.

WAKE UP AMERICA!!

[tclambert]

12. Electoral count 264 to 163, 111 toss-up

RealClearPolitics combines the results of many polls into nice charts and tables. Their website, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ has Obama with 264 electoral votes leaning his way. McCain has 164. 111 are up for grabs. It takes 270 to win. Obama needs 6. McCain needs 106. Essentially McCain must win all the toss-up states. Unfortunately for him, Obama leads in most of them. RealClearPolitics considers a state a toss-up if the spread is less than 5%. 5% to 8.9% is classified as leaning. 9% or over is termed solid.

RCP also shows Obama with more than a 5% lead nationally for the last 3 days. That means the entire country is now "leaning Obama." The 11 polls they use to calculate their average all show Obama ahead. Nobody's poll shows Obama less than 3 points ahead. Even the most conservative-leaning polls show Obama ahead.

RCP shows Obama with a 3% lead in Florida. If McCain can't win Florida, he can't win. Let me repeat part of that: McCain can't win!