DC is sure going to be interesting this winter/spring/summer

[salin]

Ah - midterm congressional elections, in the second term of a lame duck president. Rarely good for the president's party - heck in 1986 they tried to keep Reagan away from some of the races as he was seen has having a potential negative back lash.

Now throw into the mix the egos in the White House. W never likes to lose, look weak, or admit a mistake. His current speeches make clear that his first big push is going to be "making the tax cuts permanent." He is now fighting for his "legacy" (as frightening as that may be, to the rest of us). Meanwhile you have Rove - also a gigantic ego, who viewed himself as the Modern Mark Hannah, and has/had the ambitions (beyond the WH) of creating a one-party rule nation so strong that it would stretch fifty years or so into the future. So does he fight for Ws legacy - or his own... the two are now at diametric odds.

The GOP in congress, its leadership in both houses beset by controversy and corruption, is wildly unpopular - and while before polls suggested that both parties in congress were unpopular - now the dems have a decided advantage. A potential political pitfall for the GOP in Congress is the belief that their woes are entirely due to the scandals surrounding their leadership - not the policies that they have been pushing.

Back to the WH - bush is notoriously vindictive. As son of the president he was known to read all the media to identify and tag all the individuals who wrote not glowing items about his father... a sort of 'enemies list', so to speak. He has done this politically as well, as his key political strategist has gotten in the muck at the primary level of various races - at a level that is rather unprecedented. In this ugly state of affairs, those seeking reelection have to ask... is it worse for me to be with the president, or against him. Ask Sen. Craig who stood against bush in December (vocally as well as in vote), rumor has it that the WH is threatening to give the sen. some challenge back in his home district.

Back to the GOP in Congress - shifting political winds have made response to local issues more thorny - esp if one is in a tight race. Look at the very odd moves of Sen Santorum over the past month. Under a year ago, with visions of a potential presidential nomination to be had running off of the far religious right - Rick is LOUD on issues against gays, he writes a book aimed at broader positioning (beyond reelection), he is front and center during the Schaivo political fiasco. And in the last month - he starts distancing himself from ID - going so far as agreeing with the Dover school board... and just yesterday he gets on the bandwagon of requesting a committee hearing against the WH. A WH that was able to cow the other Senator from Pennsylvania just weeks after he was reelected... is now becoming an impediment to the other senator, who at one point in time viewed himself as the 'heir apparent' to bushco.

To make things more interesting - an economy whose growth has done little to touch many Americans - who seem no longer content to believe the economy is good based on the stock market not crashing is leaving more folks with a precarious sense of economic security... that is never good for the 'ruling' party.

Making things even more hard on the GOP is the ongoing problems in Iraq - coupled with a major shift in the public sentiment about the reasons we went to war (most americans now believe that the intel was deliberately slanted in order to manipulate the public into supporting the war) - and coupled with an ever increasing set of drips... or leaks... regarding abuse of power from the executive branch that is directly (torture) or indirectly (NSA domestic spying) related to Iraq.

For the first time since the confluence of the DeLay and Bush ascendancies... the GOP moderate flank is in a position of strength and probably have the best political reelection hopes.

Suddenly it is going to be a battle within the party on the Hill, a battle between the WH and the GOP on the Hill - all along trying to also battle Democrats.

Popcorn anyone?

[onehandle]

1. Not only a lame duck, but a viable target for Impeachment.

2006 Democratic Congress = 2007 Impeachment.

[texpatriot2004]

2. Impeach the Son of a Bush already nm

[salin]

8. Serious question...

if you were a GOP member of the House - would this work towards, or against your relection chances? I ask, because this is the question that is going to be vetted by each republican congressperson over and over again in the next 10 months.

[salin]

3. cornered dogs on the Hill vs cornered dogs in the WH

going to be pretty interesting to watch.

On the WH front alone... competing ego interests. Really, for the point you make above, it is in Bush's interest that the GOP retain congress. However, for the GOP to retain congress, they are goig to have to be tougher on bush and veer away from his policies - which goes against bush's nature (to be supportive of those distancing themselves from him or worse yet to those acting against him). I don't think the real fisures have even begun to show, yet.

[soothsayer]

4. radio said poll results said most favored Dems for 2006 elections!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2928

AP/Ipsos Poll: Voters Seem More Ready To End GOP Control Of Congress

[salin]

6. Traditionally - voters are more comfortable with a division

of political power to put some breaks on the WH or on Congress. This is poll is only surprising in the sense that the GOP wracked up such large margins in the last election, that until lately conventional wisdom only had the GOP in congress losing the size of their margin - not losing control of either the house and/or the senate. This change in conventional wisdom is part of why the coming ten months will be very, very interesting to watch.

The wild card will be how the RW noise machine responds - which sides they will take. For example, Norm Orstein of AEI has been very critical of the GOP congressional machine. National Review is still siding strongly with the administration. As time wears on - and the obvious (to us) perils of sitting GOP members in congress siding with the WH becomes more clear... which side will the conservative think tanks, and punditry take? It is going to be a level of drama that we haven't seen for a very long time.

[Olney Blue]

5. "Bush is notoriously vindictive"

Ya got dat right!

Good post, Salin. :popcorn:
Thanks for the popcorn!

[salin]

7. I am too young to recall the political drama of the Watergate

hearings era. I was working on the Hill during the second half of the Reagan era (at the beginning of the Iran Contra hearings) - and the political theater around that was NOTHING compared to what the tea leaves (or news stories) indicate is going to unfold in the coming months.

[Olney Blue]

11. I agree with all your posts this morning.

:thumbsup:

DU is going to have to get a supercomputer for its server!

[FreedomAngel82]

21. Along with the Abramoff stuff too

[salin]

24. and DeLays fall - and the inevitable continued revelations

about his corrupt network of organizations - which will point the way towards other orgs set up by other congressmen and lead to their own taint; Without a doubt there are many more Dukes waiting (or trembling) for their corrupt actions to be thrown out into the light of day. Oh it is going to be an interesting political season.

[shugah]

9. popcorn indeed! by the bushel!

great summary of many of the elements that will contribute to making this a fascinating election cycle.

[salin]

10. For fun, throw in the wildcard of the Medicare Perscription plan going

live. Seniors vote. Repubs counted on a net gain.

More and more reports of retirees losing the perscription drug coverage from their retiree plans - because of the Medicare plan - and being forced to participate if they want any discounts.

Add the growing acknowledgement due to the Abramoff/DeLay/Cunningham scandals of congress voting for corporation (donors) interests over citizens interests... and the story about HOW the plan was written (by PHARMA) will most certainly get more play as the May deadline approaches. Then it becomes a net loss.

[bigtree]

12. amd as always, in a political year, nothing will be what it's labeled as

everything will be wrapped in whatever BS republicans need to keep them in power. War will continue to mean peace, less money to domestic concerns will be fiscal responsibility, tax cuts to business will be jobs for the poor, medical savings accounts and tort reform will be offered to solve the health care crisis, trees will be cut to stop them fro causing pollution, they'll seek more power to spy on us to protect our freedoms, they'll pursue more nuclear weapons to make the world a safer place, and we'll have yet another SC nominee trying to sqeak by by saying as little as possible about his intentions, and we'll just be okay with all of that. Won't we?

[salin]

13. I agree about the SC squeaking through

but the rest is much less certain. Almost each BS attempt by either the Congressional GOP or by the WH since the elections has been met with more and more skepticism and has increasingly lost its effect. They will certainly have a few legislative wins (which will undoubtedly be harmful to most Americans) but they will lose a lot of political capital for each of those wins. Given the size of their majorities in both houses they should be able to push anything through.... but the dems are much more united - and the political calculus for individual GOPers is getting more and more complicated.

[bigtree]

16. heck Salin

I'm more optimistic than all that. I never despair, but I can't think of any issue or concern where we shouldn't expect the republicans (and some foolish Democrats) to put forward their worst instincts and actions to snivle for their piece of the legislative pie. I don't think I've ever benefited from giving republicans and conservatives the benefit of the doubt.

And, we're stronger now because of the pressure we put on them with our skepticism. :hi:

[salin]

17. we are a heck of a lot stronger than we we were first

exchanging political thoughts on this board. :hi:

By the way - the show sideshow is beginning... DeLay just stepped down, minutes ago.... this just a short time (hours) after his spokesperson to the NYT he was resisting efforts for his resignation.

[shugah]

14. y'know what else is going to be fun?

watching the media try to muddle through! it will be interesting to see how they spin the breaking of ranks in the GOP. and abramoff. and wiring tapping journalists. and the little notes bush adds to legislation he signs. and so on ... ad nauseum

i hope the eventual outcome is good, but in any event, it really is going to be helluva ride.

[salin]

15. media is doing more of a mixed job that it had been... kernals

of coverage of the items you mention are getting heard. I get so aggravated by it, that I hadn't stopped to think about the entertainment value of it. Now with sites like MediaMatters.org - the spin that is the most egregious will be noted - and able to be responded to.

[salin]

18. In light of this thread - and the development of the afternoon

(DeLay stepping down) what contingent will win per the power struggle for the leadership in the house GOP. What deals will be made... will some loyalists have to make a deal for the maj. leader in order to keep power through Hassert as Speaker? Remember the elections are not JUST about maj leader - it is the whole slate from deputy whips to Speaker of the House.

[catmandu57]

19. Hassert is going to be caught up in abramoff also

from what I've read, that and this is just the tip of the iceburg that's going to sink the reptiles but good. There are so many tripwires out there now, rover has problems of his own Fitz hasn't gone away.
Gasoline is going back up and will continue through the year, I believe it's going to be very hard to reign in the oil companies.
There's another disasterous hurricane in the wings, this bunch doesn't believe in global warming or anything scientific for that matter.
They're intent on giving away the store to the haves and havemores, so the money to sustain the war and any hint of domestic programs is going to be very short.
They've got to keep paying for the war that's becoming increasingly unpopular, I don't know where the money will come from to repair any fresh damage this fall.
If I were a republican I wouldn't be sleeping very well these days.

[salin]

22. I just had an image of the delious on power, Enron traders in their

hay days - gleefully wreaking havoc on west coast energy consumers - giving each other high fives over the oodles of dollars they were making through energy market manipulation schemes... and the dour faces just a year or so later that were shown when reporters showed the mostly empty enron offices. A little foreshadowing, perhaps?

[FreedomAngel82]

20. I can't wait for the midterms

And I can say goodbye to Bill Frist!

[salin]

23. Ah, I sorta relish watching him squirm a bit longer

I would bet that by the time the elections role around... he will be praying for time to past fast so he can leave the senate (and all of his self-inflicted embarassing moments) and get back to the private sector. I am pretty confident that all of his presidential aspirations will have been bleached out of reality by then.