The End of the Western World we have known since 1945

[4dsc]

http://newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3463&Itemid=85

Damn I love the Internet!!

March 20 to 26, 2006: Iran-USA, beginning of a major world crisis,

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020, now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.


An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events

The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

- on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

- on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward<1>.

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.

[phantom power]

1. You are just a hand-wringer and a PO doom-er.

:evilgrin:

[4dsc]

2. Damn reality bites

Call me a realist if you're going to stoop to name calling..

[mom cat]

12. F'ing realist:

Thanks.

[file83]

22. Don't ever try and say 4dsc didn't warn you. Besides, this isn't the only

publication saying this. This has been a long time coming and known about. Now that it is happening - most experts are very concerned. Not the kind of concern like you might lose 4% of your investments, but the kind of concern where you could lose 96% of your investments. So, you better have a back up plan.

Like I said, your decision if you think 4dsc is chicken little, but don't ever say 4dsc didn't try and warn you.

[phantom power]

24. (4dsc knows I was just making a funny)

I pity da fool who tries to be more of a hand-wringer than me.

[file83]

27. For a second there I was all "!!!!!" - now I'm "....." n/t

[4dsc]

28. Everything is just fine!!

Like I said, I love the internet and what you can learn from it!!

[Iowa]

33. Some problems with this logic...

"Don't ever try and say 4dsc didn't warn you."

Every day you can find some prognosticator predicting doom in the markets. Every day. So it follows that a few will get it right, purely by chance. But we never hear much about the ones who get it wrong, do we? Before anyone acts upon 4dsc's specific predictions, lets' at least get his real name and documentation of his success as an investor over the long haul.

"...this isn't the only publication saying this."

Of course it isn't! And on any day, of any year, you will have great numbers of "experts" predicting doom. In fact, when the ratio of bears to bulls is high, that is actually a BULLISH indicator. That's how the market works! You want to be buying, NOT selling, when everyone is most pessimistic.

...you could lose 96% of your investments."

Market analysts can't even call a market turn. They sure as hell cannot predict the depth of any particular bear market. And anyone who tells you otherwise is either clueless, or trying to sell you something.

A lack of basic investment knowledge is painfully evident in this thread.

[DBoon]

3. translation:

"we are so screwed"

[canadianbeaver]

4. that would almost be funny if it weren't so true...n/t

[Theres-a]

5. While I don't completely understand it

That M3 figures thing Really Bothers Me.That information should be available to the people who DO understand it,to keep the rest of us informed.Secretive,treasonous bastards.

[BlueEyedSon]

14. I might stop thinking they have something to hide if they stopped acting

like they do.....

[converted_democrat]

21. That's the biggie for me.. Innocent people don't act like that..n/t

[Skidmore]

6. AAAARRRRRGHHHHH!! What is a bourse?

In 20 words or less.

[4dsc]

7. Easy

A stock exchange, especially one in a continental European city is the definition I found..

[Theres-a]

8. It has to do with the stock exchange

What exactly,I'm not sure.ButI do know in Iran for now it's priced in dollars,and soon it will be euros,which I believe leaves us out of the loop,so we can't print money based on that anymore.Hopefully someone else will answer.

[BlueEyedSon]

15. A commodities marketplace

[BlueEyedSon]

16. You could also try m-w.com, wikipedia, google...

bourse
One entry found for bourse.
Main Entry: bourse
Pronunciation: 'burs
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle French, literally, purse, from Medieval Latin bursa -- more at PURSE
1 : EXCHANGE 5a; specifically : a European stock exchange
2 : a sale of numismatic or philatelic items on tables (as at a convention)

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/bourse

[Bushwick Bill]

9. M-3 and Oil Bourse

What's the Fed Up To With the Money Supply?
by Robert McHugh


Over the past two days, December 21st - when our first Hindenburg Omen (of whatever cluster is coming) - and Thursday December 22nd, the Federal Reserve has conducted one of the largest two-day Repo injections of money into the system since back in September 2001. On Wednesday they added $18.0 billion in reserves and on Thursday they added another $20.0 billion. Is this a coincidence, coming right as we get another Hindenburg Omen? Probably not. Is something high-risk going on behind the scenes here? Let's review some facts at the Fed. On November 10th, 2005, shortly after appointing Bernanke to replace Greenbackspan, the Fed mysteriously announced with little comment and no palatable justification that they will hide M-3 effective March 2006. M-3 has been the main staple of money supply measurement and transparent disclosure since the Fed was founded back in 1913. It is the key monetary aggregate that includes Fed Repo transactions, that mechanism whereby the Fed increases reserves. The date when M-3 will start being hidden also happens to be the exact month that Iran will declare economic war against the U.S. Dollar by trading its oil in Petro-Euros on its new bourse. But there is more. The Federal Reserve currently has three vacancies within the 19 top Regional Bank and Board of Governor spots. Why? Part of ongoing wholesale resignations.
http://www.intalek.com/Index/News/Safehaven_WhatsTheFedUpTo.htm

Here are some articles on the bourse.

The End of Dollar Hegemony
http://www.energybulletin.net/12987.html
The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
http://www.energybulletin.net/12125.html
Petrodollars and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Understanding the Planned Assault On Iran
http://tinyurl.com/72kh9
Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse
http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450
The Real Reasons Why Iran Is The Next Target
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html

[Klukie]

10. self delete

[quiet.american]

11. Okay, what's the bottom line? Should I up investments in gold and euros?

Should I cash out my 403b and convert it into euros and gold? Someone who understands this stuff, please give me the benefit of your wisdom.

[gordianot]

13. When the sky falls. I doubt we will be warned.

[AnneD]

32. And there will be a hell of a lot

of surprised economists. Remember they twist the business news as much as they do the daily news....Chew on that for a while.

[BlueEyedSon]

17. a basket of commodities, leaning toward gold

:)

can you invest in EFT's? Try DBC (new Deutsch Bank Commodity EFT)

[quiet.american]

35. Thanks! :) n/t

[info being]

20. Look into ETF's: GLD and FXE

You can have your dollars track gold and Euros without actually converting it.

[quiet.american]

36. Excellent suggestion -- thank you. n/t

[anarch]

23. like I keep telling people, beans and bullets

or maybe arable land.

[eridani]

34. Don't forget water n/t

[quiet.american]

37. :) n/t

[Iowa]

25. NO!!! This type of doom and gloom has always been around...

Remember Ravi Batra's The Great Depression of 1990?

Don't rush out and cash in your 403(b). People who think they can predict market movements (as attempted in the original post) are clueless. There is an entire industry of market prognosticators, and those who know what they are doing pay no attention to any of them. Eventually some of these "experts" may get it right - but it's not because they know anything - a broken clock is right twice a day, right?

Ignore this type of nonsense. Allocate you assets in such a way that will enable you to sit tight and ride out inevitable market downturns (which can persist for years), while also benefiting from the market's ups. Invest for the long term. DO NOT try to time the market - it's a fool's game. Tune out all the background noise. Anyone who would seriously consider cashing in their investments due to one internet post from an anonymous source needs additional education in the area of personal finance. I'd suggest Eric Tyson's Personal Finance book as a start. John Bogle's books are also solid. Also, stop by the local library and examine the history of market returns so you get a feel for what can happen. There are real risks in the stock market - so plan accordingly. If you truly cannot afford to wait out a market decline - get out. I wouldn't have any money in the stock market that I anticipated needing in the next five to ten years. But most importantly, NEVER react to the advice of someone who believes they can predict the future.

One more piece of advice for you, and for other DU members who have investment questions. For some free advice that is usually very solid (and if bad advice is offered, others there will quickly point it out) go to this discussion group:

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php

This is a group made up of early retirees and people who want to retire early. The old-timers there know their stuff. They've looked at investments backwards and forwards and have experienced success in the sense that they retired early and live off their investments. They have time to help, and a desire to help. Wade through old posts; there's much that can be learned there.

Good luck to you.

[Raydawg1234]

18. You have to take any news from a .org site with a grain of salt.

unless you know it is reputable.



(p.s. check out my music at http://www.myspace.com/raykeys )

[Jemmons]

19. OPEC appears to be pricing crude oil in terms of the euro allredy

"These possibilities have been scoffed at by many whose interests are tied to the fate of the dollar, but it seems that OPEC has already taken the first step - it appears to be pricing crude oil in terms of the euro. This conclusion is apparent from the following table. The import data is from the Department of Commerce report entitled U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.
US Imports of Crude oil
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Year Quantity Value Price (US$) Av.US$ per€€ Price €
2001 3,471,066 74,292,894 21.40 0.8952 23.91
2002 3,418,021 77,283,329 22.61 0.9454 23.92
2003 3,673,596 99,094,675 26.97 1.1321 23.82
We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period."

COMMENT: It would seem that its a more mixed picture since 2003 though!


Cource and more:
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2004-02-18.html

[leveymg]

29. This seems to confirm a hunch I had a while ago

This rise in the dollar price of oil and steadiness vs. the euro you observe can be accounted for by the fact that Dollars and Euros are freely and broadly arbitraged.

If this transfer pricing is already going on, and there's no price stickiness, then maybe the slip in the Dollar after the Bourse opens in March won't be quite as steep as some anticipate.

[hvn_nbr_2]

26. Who is that organization? They have a cool cartoon linked from homepage.

Anyone know anything about them? Guess I should clarify:
Do you know about either the newropeans-magazine.org or the Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020?

The magazine has this cartoon linked from its homepage:

[slybacon9]

30. So, um... since it's over in a couple weeks... anybody wanna make out?

[hopeisaplace]

31. HELP my Memory here people!! trying to remember something Bush said,

during the Katrina crisis as it was unfolding (either Bush said it, or his administration said it)
IT HAS ALWAYS STUCK WITH ME: something was said like this: (not a direct quote) "Don't worry IN THE SPRING (OR he said MARCH) people will be behind us, (on-side etc) again" ....something to this effect was probably reported on CNN cause that's what I mostly watch..when I watch TV.

Anyone else recall this????


edit: typo