Why we will not "win" Middle East wars

[SoCalDem]

Celebrating matyrdom : Shiite Muslims of all ages commemorate
the martyrdom of Imam Hussain, the grandson of Islam's
Prophet Muhammad, in Srinagar. (AFP/Tauseef Mustafa)


Shiite Muslim women carry swords as worshippers cut themselves
in honor of the Muslim festival of Ashoura, in the holy city
of Najaf, 160 kilometers (100 miles) south of Baghdad,
Monday, Feb. 6, 2006. The festival of Ashoura commemorates
the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, the grandson of Muhammad at
the Battle of Karbala, Iraq, in the year A.D. 680. (AP Photo/Alaa Al-Marjani)




Indian Muslims flagellate themselves during a Moharram procession
in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad February 6, 2006.
Muslims all over the world mourn the slaying of Imam Hussein,
a grandson of Prophet Mohammed during the first
ten days of the Islamic month of Moharram. Imam Hussein was
killed by his political rivals along with 72 companions
in Iraq some 1,300 years ago. REUTERS/Amit Dave


An Iraqi Shi'ite devotee walks with other pilgrims
after inflicting wounds on his own head, ahead of
Thursday's Ashura ceremony in the holy city of Najaf,
160 km (100 miles) south of Baghdad February 6, 2006.
Hundreds of thousands of Shi'ites travel to the Iraqi
city of Kerbala for Ashura each year to commemorate
the death of Imam Hussein, one of Prophet Muhammad's
grandsons who was buried there after he and his
followers were massacred in 680 AD. REUTERS/Ali Abu Shish

___________________________________________________________________________________________

We have NO idea, as a nation, what the people there think, how they feel,
whom they worship, HOW they worship, why they HATE us....

We can hang out at Borders for decades, perusing all the recent books
about the area and its people, but they have been a "people" for
THOUSANDS of years, OUR bible says we "began" in THEIR Garden of Eden,
their Cradle of Civilization. We are "of" them, yet we know nothing about them.

We can throw hundred dollar bills at them, but they still hate us.
Millions of dollars in rewards for No.1, No.2, No.3, etc. go unclaimed.
It's NOT about money.

Their culture is unfamiliar to us, yet we, as an upstart nation
of a few hundred years, think it's our DUTY to mold them in our image,
whether they want to or not.



We are the molesting uncle at the Thanksgiving dinner table.

[Dunvegan]

1. Shiite and Sunni Muslims are quite different sects of Islam

According to Wikipedia present calculations indicate that some 90% of the world's Muslims are Sunni and approximately 10% are Shiite.

According to the CIA Fact Book, Iran is 89% Shi'a Muslim, and 9% Sunni Muslim. Iraq is approximately Shi'a 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%.

The people pictured above are Shiite, and this is a Shiite custom...not upheld by Sunni Moslems.

In Iran, the custom pictured above, during one holy observance, is common to some percentage of Shiites. I don't believe that it is custom to all Shiites.

A large portion of the world's Shi'a live in the Middle Eastern region. They constitute a majority or a plurality in countries such as in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Lebanon and Bahrain.

An interesting fact is that the bulk of the petroleum deposits of the Middle East are located under the Shi'a inhabited lands (from Iran to Iraq and Azerbaijan). A vast majority of the population living in the countries of the Persian Gulf (to include Iran and Iraq) is also Shi'a.

What Is the Difference Between Sunni and Shiite Muslims--and Why Does It Matter?
http://hnn.us/articles/934.html
By HNN Staff

The Islam religion was founded by Mohammed in the seventh century. In 622 he founded the first Islamic state, a theocracy in Medina, a city in western Saudi Arabia located north of Mecca. There are two branches of the religion he founded.

The Sunni branch believes that the first four caliphs--Mohammed's successors--rightfully took his place as the leaders of Muslims. They recognize the heirs of the four caliphs as legitimate religious leaders. These heirs ruled continuously in the Arab world until the break-up of the Ottoman Empire following the end of the First World War.

Shiites, in contrast, believe that only the heirs of the fourth caliph, Ali, are the legitimate successors of Mohammed. In 931 the Twelfth Imam disappeared. This was a seminal event in the history of Shiite Muslims. According to R. Scott Appleby, a professor of history at the University of Notre Dame, "Shiite Muslims, who are concentrated in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, had suffered the loss of divinely guided political leadership" at the time of the Imam's disappearance. Not "until the ascendancy of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1978" did they believe that they had once again begun to live under the authority of a legitimate religious figure.

[SoCalDem]

5. I know the difference

but I would guess that 85% or more westerners do not. Whether they are Shia, Sunni, Kurd, Salafists, Wahhabi, or whatever,to our ignorant leaders, they are just another population of dark skinned people who will not readily give up their resources and bow to the western wisdom.

They were writing poetry, doing exquisite mosaics and "inventing" algebra when our western ancestors were literally living like animals.

[Burning Water]

2. Not supporting

war in Iraq, bombing of Iran, or anything, but what's the plan?

I'd really like to see some good Democratic, progressive plan, because what Bush is doing isn't working. But these people do want to kill us and we need a good plan to prevent them from doing so.

[Wilms]

3. These people want to kill us? I'm sure some do. But here's the reality.

We're killing them.

[megatherium]

6. More reality:

Back in the 1990s, bin Laden and company declared war on the US. They gave six reasons for attacking their erstwhile allies (recall we were allied against the Soviets in the 1980s in Afghanistan). I don't remember all six reasons, but they included:

• Our support of Israel;
  
• Our support of corrupt, pro-western regimes in the region (Saudi Arabia in particular);
  
• Our presence in the Arabian holy lands;
  
• Our taking of the oil wealth of the region for much less than it is worth.
  

To this they have added: Our military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

So to forestall further attacks against us, we must:

• Stop supporting Israel;
  
• Stop supporting the Saudi royals, allowing the regime to collapse and allowing Islamists to control the petroleum;
  
• Vacate entirely the Muslim world -- Afghanistan, Iraq, Qatar, etc.
  

Bin Laden has recently informed us that a major attack is being planned in the US, but that he is offering us a truce. He didn't specify terms for the truce, but I believe it's understood that leaving the Middle East is what he expects. (Please correct me if this is in error.)

Michael Scheuer (the "anonymous" author of Imperial Hubris) says we would do well to listen to bin Laden. He counsels considering withdrawal of aid from Israel (we give them several billion dollars a year). At any rate, to meet bin Laden's demands, we would have to basically cede the region to him. In my opinion, we could decide to do just that, making sure at the same time that we become energy-independent (through use of coal, oil shale, nuclear, drastic conservation measures, and even renewable energy sources). Then forget about that region. Of course, this would leave the Israelis to fend for themselves, and it would set the stage for a Muslim state with enormous petroleum wealth -- which they would enable them to become a nuclear power. If you find this disconcerting, you're not alone; but of course the alternative (continued involvement in the Middle East) would guarantee that we continue to fight wars of the sort we are now involved in.

[SoCalDem]

8. People are still people, no matter where they live.

Extremism is born of fear and ignorance. There was a window open for a short while, and perhaps it will re-open. The US has/had a capacity to do GOOD. No one will convince me that Iraq had to go so bad, so fast. Had we arrived with concrete, shovels, plywood, wiring,forklifts, food, medicine, school books, and other humanitarian items, we would not be the pariahs we are today.

We should have plastered signs on every upright object, inviting all men 15-60 to join in the rebuilding of their country.We could have paid them $500 USD a month (way cheaper than what we have going now), and put them to work. Iraqis have been "building" their cities for thousands of years. There is no reason to think they could not continue to do it.

Imagine a family with a dad and 3 sons...would $2K a month, and days full of sweat-equity labor leave a lot of extra time for building IEDs? Would they WANT to kill the people they worked beside, ate with, were paid by? I doubt it.

An atmosphere of rebirth and prosperity would spread like wildfire. Contagious prosperity is what we should strive for.

No mother looks into her newborn's eyes and dreams of their life ending as a teenaged suicide-bomber.

[megatherium]

17. yes, things have gone bad in Iraq due to Bush and his people's

incompetence. (It was the collapse of civil security in Iraq that quickly soured them against us.) As it stands now, we are nervously trying to hold things together, dreading the intensification of a civil war that has already begun. All because Rumsfeld (in particular) decided to cowboy it on the cheap.

[genie_weenie]

15. Imperial Hubris

is an excellent read.

Unfortunately, the West and now China and Japan will never leave the Middle East alone, Oil is too important.

Saudi Arabia is absolutely terrified at the prospect of our leaving the ME. Consider, fighters (instead of insurgents) engaging US forces in Iraq are being trained and going through the crucible, this is giving them excellent training against a well armed proficient foe. SA is of course concerned that once we leave Iraq the fighters will flow into SA and possibly overthrow the Saud family ruler ship.

As for stopping supporting for Israel, that is a topic for a different forum. I don't know what to do about that one.

We should absolutely pull our forces from Overseas bases, they serve only to protect the American Empire, which I staunchly oppose. Of course, the aftermath of such a pull out and the effect on World Power Dynamics will probably cause many people their lives...

[megatherium]

21. I think you are exactly correct.

Security isn't using our military to desperately try to prevent disasters all over the planet, and in the middle east in particular. Security is Fortress America, not entangled in other countries and their problems, a country that has the brains to do whatever it takes to have energy independence. We have plenty of domestic energy; some of it comes with a sharp environmental cost -- but nothing is worse for the environment than war!

We should give the Israelis permission to admit they're a nuclear state, and leave them to their own devices (so to speak). What is that old saying: America should be the friend of liberty everywhere but not its defender.

[genie_weenie]

23. John Quincy Adams

America does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to freedom and independence for all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.

[SoCalDem]

26. Hmmmm .. Bush must have missed that chapter..

Didn't he parade around with that book under his arm, for all to see.. Of course when he's behind closed doors he probably reads little more than the Pennysaver in the bathroom

[megatherium]

38. thanks!! nt

[Burning Water]

12. Yes, we are.

and it is a tragedy. But it hardly answers the question, does it. How DO we prevent them from killing us? We seem to have a tiger by the tail. How do we let go without getting eaten?

The man who can answer that satisfactorily, or more satisfactorily, will be the next President.

[Wilms]

13. Reply #6 had some good ideas. n/t

[Burning Water]

22. Maybe, after peace is restored

first the fighting must stop before anything can be done. That depends as much on them as us.

[SoCalDem]

14. Gazelle co-exist with lions every day

the lions don't kill all the gazelle, but every day there's a possibility that one gazelle will die.. the lions cannot eat them all..


the law of averages says that you will be safe, but then maybe not.. Do you cower in your house and sacrifice your life, afraid to go out ...or do you keep your wits about you, pay attention and go about your daily life?

No matter WHAT you do, you WILL die someday..of something.. unless you kill yourself, you never know when that day will be.

Cheer up.. I am 99.9% sure bin Laden will not kill you :)

[Burning Water]

25. But everyday

some of the gazelle die.

On the other hand Cape buffalo can defend themselves. Few lions will tackle an adult Cape buffalo. Even zebra have been known to kick like a mule, break the lion's jaw, and live, while the lion starved to death.

Besides, people are not gazelle, or buffalo, or zebra, and are far more prone to try to kill someone who is trying to kill them. Although they might try talking first, but if it does not work. they will try to kill the other guy.

[SoCalDem]

29. ahh.. back to the kill or be killed theory..

I never start my day wanting to kill someone before they kill me..I have lived in turbulent coup-prone countries, and never thought I would be killed..

the only time I have ever feared being killed, was when two men..one a president, the other a premier were dancing a nuclear two-step...but even back then, intellect kicked in..

I do not fear bin Laden, or no.2 or no.3 or no.4 or Dr Germ, or Dr Death or anyone. I do not fear my neighbors, or strangers on the street. I mind my own business, try to help whomever I can and stay out of other people's beefs.

World leaders should emulate ME :

[Burning Water]

33. I totally agree

I mind my own business, try to help whomever I can and stay out of other people's beefs.

World leaders should emulate ME :

But they won't.

Still, refusing to address the problem doesn't make it go away.

[SoCalDem]

4. They never tried to "kill us" until we barged in with guns ablazing

Bin Laden is NOT a nation, a country, a government. he is little more than a wealthy THUG, who has managed to creat a "movement".

There have been terror cells around for ages.....

the Red Brigades in Italy, the Basque Fatherland in Spain, First of October Anti-Fascist Resistance Group in Spain, Peoples Struggles and People's Resistance Groups in Iran, the Irish Republican Army in Belfast, the Tupamaros of Paraguay and Argentina, and the Shining Path movement in Peru.The KKK, and many others here

The trick is to fight them when they come to YOU, and gradually learn about them so that small changes in policy can be made to turn the people they rely upon, against them.

Bullets and bombs cannot kill ideas. They only reinforce the hatred.

[Burning Water]

28. So you advocate

paying the Danegeld?

[SoCalDem]

31. We have usually used the "reverse-danegeld" theory

steal the land, then impose the tax:)

[Burning Water]

34. Sort of an international

eminent domain theory, you think? :)

[SoCalDem]

35. We claim everything as our own..

God gave it to us?

[Brewman_Jax]

7. A completely different concept

They remember history differently, the invasions that we refer to as the Crusades are remembered as if it was recent history. In addtion, religion is integrated into their lives to a level that most of us in the West cannot begin to comprehend.

I'm sure they'd like to be left alone, but there's a lot of oil under the sands. The lines drawn and policies after World War I are a testimony to that.

[Marie26]

9. So how can we understand?

Cause obviously the policy Bush is following isn't working. What is the solution?

[AngryAmish]

10. Our country is older than most in the Islamic world

And we draw on an older, Western tradition.

We have our own culture. Not better but different.

[SoCalDem]

11. "Country" is an artificial appellation

A foreigner draws lines on paper and someone who claims to represent you and all your clan, places his mark on that paper....instant "country"...

Tribal people do not recognize artificial boundaries.


Most people in the world still cling to tribalism. WE are the minority, not they..We used education, weapons and enormous wealth to co-opt their resources, and now that they are very keenly aware of what we have been doing, they are pissed.

[genie_weenie]

19. The nation-state construct

Totally agree with your analysis of Nation-States, but the Ottoman Empire broke the Mesapotomia region up and at different times forcibly moved peoples around.

This is not to attack your post, but I think alot of people (even DUers) have this bad habit of ascribing the current ME situation to the evils of Imperalism and not understanding that their is literally 5000 years of history and bad blood in that area...

[SoCalDem]

20. 5000 years of history of THEIR making..

that's the difference. "Modern" society cannot "tame" thousands of years of tribalism easily.
We assume that all it will take is some satellite tv coca-cola and some Levis..

tribalism is ALWAYS brutal..Tribes do not acquiesce to the advances of rival tribes. They duke it out and come to an eventual denouement..but if a true outsider arrives, they band together to fight the infidel..

[genie_weenie]

24. welllllll, not exactly

I just cringe when I hear blame always dumped in one *groups* lap. That is how we get * and the, "you are with us or against us type of thinking". Which leads to:

We
Are
Right

[SoCalDem]

32. Facts are facts.. Everyone in the world does not think in western civ

terms. we made the world smaller, and everyone who is not in our little bubble is a "they".. People can be a "they" without the need to KILL them.. That's all I'm sayin'.

[AngryAmish]

40. Their history of the last 5000 not entirely their making

Huns, Turks, Mongols, Mamluks, etc. Alexander the Great had a bloody expedition through there.

[SoCalDem]

41. Who they are today is an amalgam of all their "visitors"

through the years:)

[DinahMoeHum]

16. ". . .Like eating soup with a knife. . ." - sayeth Lawrence of Arabia.

"The...(enemy)... was stupid and would believe that rebellion was absolute, like war, and deal with it on the analogy of absolute warfare,''..."Analogy is fudge, anyhow, and to make war upon rebellion is messy and slow, like eating soup with a knife..."

TE Lawrence - "The Evolution of a Revolt"

:evilfrown:

[BlueEyedSon]

18. We are not in it to win it, I thought you knew that.....?

[bleedingheart]

27. When I have brought up this very topic with republicans they

shake their heads and exclaim that I do not know what I am talking about.

I kid you not.

I find that people who cling to republicanism are those who want everything to be the same...they find differences in culture frightening and they feel that there are absolutes in morality, faith etc..

The culture and religions of the Middle East are not understood by the majority of people here in the US.

[BlueEyedSon]

30. We will "win it" just like we won the Viet Nam war

The "helicopter moment" will eventually come.....

[SoCalDem]

37. We underestimated that rag-tag army as well

:(

technology is not always a benefit.

[SoCalDem]

39. They also have the idea that they can beat people into submission

ad then be loved for having done it.

[threadkillaz]

36. And they dont believe in Credit Cards.

nt