The death by hanging of arab secular nationalism.

[Warren Stupidity]

What expired at the end of that rope was not just the tyrant Saddam Hussein but also the secular nationalist movement in the middle east. What was buried in Tikrit was not just Saddam Hussein but pan-arabism itself.

What has replaced the nationalists are the islamists. Oddly, the great facilitator in this now almost total defeat of secular nationalism in the arab world has been none other than our own government and its allies. Our policies over the last 25 years, intentionally or not, have almost consistently aided the islamic forces in the arab world.

When we intervened in Afghanistan in the 80's we did so by funding and supporting islamic militias. It is generally thought that, for example, Osama bin Laden got his start at least indirectly aided by our own CIA. The blowback from Afghanistan has been the transformation of that country into an islamist stronghold and a breeding ground for jihadist movements.

The Iran-Iraq war presents a more complicated picture. In a nutshell the US played both sides of the conflict, aiding Iraq and Iran frequently at the same time up until 1986 when, its double dealing uncovered by the Iran Contra scandal, Washington tilted completely toward Iraq. Our objectives seemed to have been to bleed both sides dry and to convince the gulf states to grant us basing rights in their territories.

Our ally Israel has, intentionally or not, managed to eliminate almost completely the secular nationalist arab factions in both the occupied territories and Lebanon. Her policies have directly resulted in the emergence of islamic factions as the dominant political and military forces in those regions. The deliberate isolation and humiliation of Arafat and Fatah had the obvious consequences: Hamas and other islamist factions have become dominant amoung Palestinians. Israel's 25 year and counting misadventures in Lebanon have transformed the once neutral shiite community there into the Hezbollah lead nightmare that it is for Israel today. Once again secular nationalism has been, intentionally or not, sacrificed in favor of islamist factions.

The long 12 year siege of Iraq after Gulf Farce I, followed by the toppling of the Hussein regime and subsequent failed occupation of Iraq in Gulf Farce II eliminated the last arab nationalist regime of any military significance from the region. Replacing the Baathist regime are the islamist militias, shiite and sunni. Only the secular nationalist Kurdish militias present any alternative to islamist rule in the region.

Mubarak of Egypt, Kadaffi of Lybia, and Assad of Syria cling to power but each is struggling against their own Islamist forces. The corrupt ruling families of the gulf states, now all hopelessly entangled with the despised US government, cling to power that may, like the nationalist regimes of Egypt Lybia and Syria, not outlast the lives of their current leaders.

Bin Laden and the Islamists could not have asked for a better outcome. They enter 2007 with the entire Arab world teetering on the edge of a regional cataclysm that may very well usher in the Islamic future they could only dream of when the twin towers fell.

Heck of a job Georgie, heck of a job.

Happy new year.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. Well put and accurate. The consequences of our meddling are still to be felt.

The most unfortunate thing is that we will probably continue to do so under any administration.

The best we can hope for is that, at some point, we come to the realization that the Middle East is not ours to dictate to. But, it will take a lot more of our induced carnage to convince our "leaders" of the obvious.

[Warren Stupidity]

4. Yes I unfairly blame Dumbass at the end there.

While the idiot has done the most damage, the pattern goes back at least to the Carter administration and will likely continue through the next administration as well. The boys in the back room seem to have decided on a particular strategy.

[CJCRANE]

2. "And so it has appeared to some analysts and diplomats

that the White House and us are playing as one team".

Osama bin Laden, November 2004

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/archive/archive?ArchiveId=7403

[JeffR]

3. Bullseye

K & R.

[dave_p]

5. Well put

Good stuff... yes, spot on.

Islamism is not the result of processes internal to Islam or to Arab political development, it's the consequence of more than half a century of interaction between the US and the Muslim world, an exchange characterised principally by US-Israeli undermining of those who stood in the way of Islamism and offered an alternative to its road to nowhere. Islamism is what your taxes and successive US leaders turned from a lunatic fringe into a mass force. It's a political creation actively aided by the West's refusal to do business with secular Muslims seeking justice and common respect for their peoples.

[Warren Stupidity]

12. Precisely the point I was trying to make.

One has to conclude that all of this has been deliberate. It was the same disturbing underlying message of the wonderful movie Syriana, a point that most reviewers were so uncomfortable with that they instead insisted that the movie was confusingly obscure or flawed. It wasn't, it was spot on and its message was completely clear. This same theme can be found very well documented in Robert Fisk's recent history of these times, although once again the message is so disturbing to the established order that the messenger has to be attacked.

[kentuck]

6. Right on!

Ignorance will kill us all...

[Little Star]

7. This is what bothered me about Lebanon

What the hell are we (the west)really doing over there? What we just build them up (secular nations) to knock them down? What is really going on?? I can't figure it (the whole picture) out. Now I'm not that smart to figure it out on my own but I can't even find anything to read that explains the whole sordid picture.

[dave_p]

8. Good case

Lebanon's a great case - it was carved out of Syria by the French in 1920 specifically as a sectarian state in which the Christian minority would constitute a pro-French presence in the region (they would have been a mnajority, but neighbouring Muslim-majority areas had to be tacked on to the original Ottoman governorate to make the enterprise economically viable).

So in Lebanon it's Muslims who've exerted the more "secular" pressure on the original political setup (specifically the notion of majority rule, though with guarantees of minority representation). And today's pro-Syria opposition is a coalition of Shia and anti-Falangist Christian parties against rival pro-western Christian and Sunni groups.

The US error in 1983 was to support Christian political dominance against those wanting a rewritten constitution. The constitution eventually gor rewritten, and Hezbollah reaped the reward for being seen as a key player in that process, as well as in resisting foreign invasion: the paradox is that its very success lured the group from its founding Islamism.

[Warren Stupidity]

9. Ok so one explanation is simple: divide and conquer.

By knocking down arab nationalists and creating an opening for islamist regimes we are guaranteeing that the sunni-shiite split keeps the muslim world divided and unable to effectively counter our efforts to exploit their resources to our advantage. In short: it is all about oil.

[JCMach1]

10. Way too simple a view... The Shia movements in Lebanon and Iraq

are as much about social power as religion. In both countries Shia were the lowest rung on the social ladder with virtually now power, or economic opportunity.

The Islamist movement as you describe is as much a social critique as anything else.

As for Democracy. It is simply a matter of time and Demographics. The current regimes are not meeting the needs of the extremely young population. As that group ages into power, the whole region will be remade in one image or another. Two points I see in my students all the time:

1. Wanting a break from the corrupt past.
2. A real hunger for Democracy (on their terms not anyone else's)

[Warren Stupidity]

11. I don't disagree with anything you said there.

My essay was more about the effects of US foreign policy, intentional or otherwise, than about the nature of the shia and sunni islamist movements, and it was specifically about the end, at our hands, of the pan arabism that was the defining feature of this region from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire until the rise of shiite Iran in the 80's.

[eridani]

13. Ariel Sharon was the real founder of Hamas

He fundeded religious village charity groups as an alternative to the secular PLO which later morphed into Hamas.

[Ms. Clio]

14. The Great Uniter

k&r