Holy Shite: Was the polonium mechansim of delivery this simple?

[lala_rawraw]

Sitting here smoking my cancer sticks and working on trying to figure out the polonium drama (if you don't know what I mean, go to www.atlargely.com ) and I realized the following... going to post from my blog:

"My theory on the mechanism:

I have said before that I believe that the Polonium was not directly ingested by Alex, but was rather in something belonging to him or something that he used was laced with the polonium. But remember, you want to use one weapon against several people, and you don't want to use too much as it may be identified. What kind of delivery mechanism could both be undetected, potent, transmittable, and have the ability to cause so much confusion in terms of the evidence trail?

If Mario is not involved, but contaminated, what did he share with Alex and when? The same question applies to Alex's wife. What was it, a cup? No, because Mario did not go home to visit Alex's family.

How about this:

A cigarette. In fact, a cigarette would be an extremely powerful way to distribute the polonium via air, causing another to inhale it. But since the only people that would inhale for any real duration would be people in close proximity to the victim, it is certain to do the trick as smoking at most places is not allowed and also because in small vapor qualities it would not be necessarily lethal, so not too much of a danger to the British public, although somewhat of a danger if things went badly.

Let us then assume the polonium was brought into England by several agents, all bringing in cigarettes cartons. That would explain why an overhead was contaminated as well as a seat on a particular flight.

Imagine Alex going about his day, smoking. Meeting Mario for lunch, who only inhaled some of the poison. This would also account for some of the radiation sites that do not have a bodily fluid deposit, like urine for example. Most importantly, It would also account for the delayed reaction in Mario and also Alex's wife, because if they are non-smokers, they would not have directly ingested the Polonium, rather, they would have inhaled it. Alex, however, would have directly ingested it, both via his mouth and via inhalation, speeding up his death. The more he smoked, the worse it got, which might account for why there are places that are more contaminated than others and also out of order of his movements."
http://www.atlargely.com/2006/12/alex_smoking_gu.html

Now I have to see if this pans out via atomic experts, but this would be one hell of a dangerous weapon.

[BuyingThyme]

1. Does anybody know why this story is getting so much coverage?

[lala_rawraw]

3. What do you mean? You really don't understand why?

[BuyingThyme]

8. Not at all. This story hit right after the guy died, without

even any indication that he was murdered. They've been adding to it non-stop ever since. If a retired U.S. senator had died, he would have gotten less attention.

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. Not true. The story came out when the guy ended up in the hospital

and he suspected Putin poisoned him. That's when it made the news. He died days after, maybe a week after he was hospitalized. THEN, the day AFTER he died, the hospital discovered it was POLONIUM 210! Not everyone has access to Polonium. This was a hit job on him and he's probably correct in suspecting Putin.

I heard a scientist say that all it takes to kill someone with Polonium 210 is an amount that fits on the TIP of a PIN. It's fascinating as hell. Now they've discovered 12 radioactive sites and 2 more victims?

[BuyingThyme]

34. In my world, the top-of-the hour radio news hits

started with the death, and they've constantly added to it.

There were two days where this story was the lead, almost every single hour.

[w4rma]

68. "… at a total cost of about $1 million - to have a toxic amount."

…
You would need about 15,000 of our Polonium-210 needle sources at a total cost of about $1 million - to have a toxic amount.
…
Another point to keep in mind is that an order for 15,000 sources would look a tad suspicious, considering we sell about 1 or 2 sources every 3 months.
…
http://www.unitednuclear.com/isotopes.htm

This is some expensive poison.

[truedelphi]

57. Take Wellstone's plane going down. Gosh - they got rid of

That story quickly.

True there were follow ups when the National Transportaion Board issued their findings, but news media paid little notice to many truly remarkable things aout the crash- including the fact that the head of that board had at one time been CIA.

[everythingsxen]

4. Because it is fairly rare...

for someone to be assassinated in such a total James Bond way. Fucking Polonium? WTF! That is like crazy super-spy stuff that only happens in movies, tv and books. Most assassinations are small and quiet, natural causes are what you usually want. Or big and lound.

This was --- in a word, weird. It is so specific that it has to either be Putin or someone who very badly wants to make it look like Putin did it.

[Kagemusha]

9. Yeah, what you said.

And I'm a skeptic about pointing fingers until real proof's in... but having said that, this is far from normal.

It's just that Putin's considered so evil that he cannot but be guilty in the popular mind.. which makes me think that regardless of whether he's behind it or not, it looks very convenient, and very easy, to stir the media up to use this against Putin. When a lie is as good as the truth (maybe better), I suspect stories.

But absolutely, this was a weird case, the likes of which hasn't been seen in a very long time.

[BuyingThyme]

12. They were pounding this story before the polonium

showed up.

[everythingsxen]

17. Well, the media is usually concerned

about their fellow journalists being murdered. The spy who was killed was investigating Putin's role in the murder of a Russian journalist very critical of Putin.

[htuttle]

18. Only when it suits the corporate media's agenda

How many times have you seen CNN go into 'breaking news mode' when a journalist was killed by US forces in Iraq?

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0218/dailyUpdate.html?s=r...

[everythingsxen]

19. Yeah, well they are not..

going to bite the hand that feeds them. In general though, they care about their fellow journalists.

[in_cog_ni_to]

22. That's because he said PUTIN did it.

That's why it made the news before the Polonium entered the picture.

[WinkyDink]

27. Spies are big stories when they are a.) outed [cf. "Plame, Valerie"];

b.) poisoned after threatening to reveal major "worse than corruption" activities of a world leader; 3.) assassinated via RARE NUCLEAR-WEAPON MATERIAL!

And right when the latest James Bond movie premieres?

You're seriously wondering why this is a story??

[Little Star]

15. My first thought was your second guess-

someone who very badly wants to make it look like Putin did it.

[nannah]

35. the larouche folks think it was cheney

they say it is cheney trying to make putin look bad.

[BuyingThyme]

40. Well, he does like to kill.

[tulsakatz]

37. not only was it not done in a way that seemed like natural causes....

...but the polonium, apparently, can only be obtained through very limited sources, like a govt.

There aren't a lot of places where you can just walk in and buy polonium.

[rman]

65. It seems the FSB (KGB) is overt about its assassinations

(contrary to the US intel agencies) maybe they're trying to send a clear message to those they haven't yet gotten to.


Alexander Litvinenko, former FSB agent, accused FSB of being behind the 1999 terrorist attacks, asylum in UK, died due to radio-active poisoning november 2006
http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,1956643,00....

Anna Politkovskaja, Journalist critical of Putin and the war in Chechenia, shot dead in Moscow okt 2006
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article1819666.ece

Sergej Joesjenkov, Parlementarian investigating the 1999 terrorist attacks implicating the FSB, shot dead in Moscow april 2003
http://archief.trouw.nl/artikel?REC=7e619e0671cfa2d5c5f...

Joeri Sjtsjekotsjichin, Parlementarian and journalist investigating the 1999 terrorist attacks, died due to misterious desease juli 2003
http://archief.nieuws.nl/zoekresultaat/86321

[JohnLocke]

5. Because it implies that a global superpower is carrying out political assassinations on foreign soil

[htuttle]

7. Hmm....you mean like we do?

Damn...can't have that.

[lala_rawraw]

13. right, but add to that

a bio-nuke attack on our most important friend's soil... the Brits... this is seriously disturbing on so many levels.

[Richard Steele]

24. Even worse- like we do, but with STYLE!

This was DESIGNED to grab headlines. Bond movie fans alone
would provide enough word-of-mouth to circle the globe.

This was not just an assasination, it was a MESSAGE.

[napi21]

10. I suspect becausethe guy was poisoned buy a very unusual method.

One that scares lots of people, and no one seems to be able to figure out the source. It seems to have originated in Russia, and they sure aren't know for theirability or desire to secure radioactive materials.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

11. Nuclear and chemical WMDs in a terrorist attack.

It'd be much bigger news if a muslim nation were suspect.

[everythingsxen]

16. Yes and no

The target would have to be different.

The spy who was killed was a rabid anti-Putin guy. (Not disparaging him here, but his death bed words blamed Putin) He was investigating Putin for murdering journalists. Then he was assassinated super-spy anime cartoon style by a weapon easily traced back to Putin.

That makes it big news.

Yes, if the Polonium were traceable to say, Iran and the victim were say, an ex-Syrian spy who saying damaging things about Iran and Syria, yes it would be a bigger story, no doubt eclipsing this one's coverage.

[Junkdrawer]

33. Tinfoil Alert: Imagine how much more effective a London "dirty bomb"...

attack would be now...

[cassiepriam]

39. Because it is a real life mystery, a bizarre method of death.

I guess you have to have kind of a strange mind to
be interested in it I admit.

[everythingsxen]

2. It seems plausable...

especially since cigarettes already contain background radioactive materials anyway. The question is, do cigs have enough background rads to mask someone transporting them onto a plane?

[skids]

70. No, they wouldn't.

The only reason the trace amounts of Polonium 210 in normal U.S. cigarettes (and captured by cigarette smoke in Radon-high areas like cellars) is a health hazard is because it gets deposited right where it can do the most damage -- on a precancerous leision right next to some cells that it can irradiate... and that takes years to kill a person.

Alpha radiation is only effective at very short range, like down on the cellular level.

If you want to kill someone in a shirt time period you have to get them to inhale many many times that amount, or if you are not using an inhaled delivery mechanism like a cigarette, many many times even more of it. The levels of the Polonium 210 would have to be so high, so close to the cells, that they kill lots of cells outright, not just mutate a few every few weeks.

(EDIT: if you wanted to give a person to smoke a poisoned cigarette and have them die a few days later, there would probably be easier poisons to use, unless you really wanted it to stand out as peculiar, to which end there are plenty of ways than using radioactive materials. From the bits and peices I've bothered to look at in this story I'm guessing it was ingested.)

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Polonium is a component implicated in lung cancer.

Polonium is a component implicated in lung cancer.

http://nepenthes.lycaeum.org/Drugs/THC/Health/cancer.ra... "The major source of the polonium is phosphate fertilizer, which is used in growing tobacco".

http://www.lenntech.com/Periodic-chart-elements/Po-en.h... "The Surgeon General C. Everett Koop stated that radioactivity, rather than tar, accounts for at least 90% of all smoking-related lung cancers. The Center for Disease Control concluded "Americans are exposed to far more radiation from tobacco smoke than from any other source. Cigarette smoking accounts for 30% of all cancer deaths."

[Gold Metal Flake]

14. Reasonable.

How was it carried? Sure, the cigs could have been doped anywhere. In Russia or in the UK. But either way the Polonium had to be transported.

[seriousstan]

20. It's an alpha emitter, it can be carried in a paper bag.

[in_cog_ni_to]

23. Can it be carried in a paper bag and not be detected in an airport? n/t

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

30. I doubt it.

If only because the process of putting it in the bag would have left a tiny amount on the outside of the bag.

[in_cog_ni_to]

38. Well, since it was found on 2 planes in an overhead

that means it was a carry-on bag and would have gone through detectors. Right? OR the person would have gone through a detector if he was contaminated with it...either way, the detectors missed it or it was an inside job with an airport worker who let the Polonium go through. Strange and fascinating spy story.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

42. Well, right.

There are still plenty of stories going around about people sneaking actual guns onto airplanes. I'm saying polonium should be detectable.

[cassiepriam]

44. The airport did not detect it. I don't think it was an inside job.

Someone just carried it onboard.

Can't they look at the passenger list?

[magellan]

26. Okay, I just looked up 'alpha emitter' on another site

It says: "Polonium-210 is an alpha emitter. During radioactive decay, it loses two protons, and becomes a lead-206 atom, which is stable (i.e., nonradioactive)."

Does "nonradioactive" mean it can't pass through the skin but is still dangerous if inhaled or ingested? The terms are confusing me. I thought I knew what "nonradioactive" meant. Like I would have said I'm nonradioactive. (Mostly.)

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

28. It means the lead-206 doesn't decay.

So the end product is no longer radioactive (nonradioactive.) The Polonium-210 is still radioactive.

[magellan]

36. Ah, thank you.

I get it now, whatever hasn't yet decayed is still dangerous. I'm not switched on tonight.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

47. Well, the lead's still poisonous.

There's no guarantee the non-radioactive daughter species isn't dangerous.

[Oldtimeralso]

61. Lead is still poisonous

A good friend if mine died of lead poisioning...... .38 caliber.

[cassiepriam]

45. I have read it does not pass thru the skin. Must be ingested or inhaled.

You can hold it in your hand for a short period of time and still be OK,

[in_cog_ni_to]

51. That's what I heard from a scientist. It has to be ingested and is not contagious

unless someone comes in contact with urine, feces, or bodily fluid of some sort. I guess the wife kissing him would explain her being positive? The other guy, I dunno.

[cassiepriam]

66. Yes ingested or inhaled.....

I don't get the other guy either, unless it was a cigarette delivery method..smoke inhaled by the other guy..

[magellan]

56. I think I'll pass on that

I never was much for dares!

[cassiepriam]

67. I don't blame you....

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. What was your reasoning that he didn't directly ingest the polonium?

I haven't actually seen details of what surfaces have had polonium found on them. If it's an entire room, your smoke theory could make sense. But "seat and overhead locker" sounds like contamination from someone's hands - which has nothing particular to do with cigarette cartons.

[cassiepriam]

46. I think he was trying to account for all the traces in differing locales...

if he ingested it, would only be in his urine etc.

[lala_rawraw]

48. i think he did ingest it... via the cig in his mouth

washed down with saliva. the surfaces have been anything ranging in a potty (for bodily fluids) to the overhead in a plane. as for the seat and overhead, that makes sense too, because one of the carrier bags was ripped or leaking i think.

[Solly Mack]

29. In the movie, "The Enemy Within", the character played by

Lawrence Pressman was murdered when an agent carrying a lit cigar waved the smoke in the other man's face. His death was ruled a heart attack - which the poison used could produce.

In the movie, the comment was made that such a technique was an "old Russian" method.

Of course it's just a movie.

[in_cog_ni_to]

41. Interesting. And Putin is EX-KGB.

[wakeme2008]

31. I know it is a stupid question but did he smoke.

If so did he like one Russian brand.

[Sydnie]

52. If the answer to both of those questions is yes

then I think LaLa hit the nail on the glowing head. Now, it's time to find out if anyone else would have been near him when he was smoking.

[tulsakatz]

32. that's a very likely scenario..........

In fact, I read something that says cigarettes already contain some polonium.......

Lives could be saved by simply changing fertilizers, they say... Almost 95% of the Lung Cancer caused by Cigarettes are allegedly the result of using calcium phosphate fertilizer to grow the Tobacco. The resulting Cigarettes bearing a combination of local Radon gasses and radioactive Polonium from the Tobacco leaves deposit a small dose of radioactive isotopes directly into a smoker's lungs as they smoke (or breath smoke laden air)! For the "pack-a-day" smoker, it has been alleged that this dose would be the same as if you were forced to have between 300 and 8000 Chest X-Rays a year! If this startling fact be true, then it appears that your Lungs could literally be converted into a toxic, irradiated Nuclear Dump by the majority of today's commercially grown and factory manufactured Cigarettes!

http://www.acsa.net/HealthAlert/lungcancer.html

Assuming this is true, they would only have to increase the amount of polonium for it to be effective.

[cassiepriam]

43. Makes a lot of sense. Scary if true. How easy to smuggle and

administer the poison.

BTW Could the wife have gotten poisoned thru sexual contact?

[lala_rawraw]

54. i assume you mean

seman? good question...but the obvious question with that is rather disrespectful to them, so i won't ask it... but given the two criteria through which this enters the body, there would be only one way she could get it that way and only if she did a particular thing... i don't know, however, but good question

[lala_rawraw]

49. Update, ciggies already have P in them

http://www.lenntech.com/Periodic-chart-elements/Po-en.h...

So that also gives the weapon a cover, should any of the cigs be located.

[valerief]

50. Holy crapola! Scary stuff. nt

[eridani]

58. Readers Digest had an article 40 years or so ago--

--which reported that tobacco plants concentrate trace heavy metals from fertilizer, some of which are radioactive. Looks like modern research with actual URLs agrees.

[Sydnie]

53. I think you might be on to the answer here

Makes lots of sense to me.

[lala_rawraw]

55. thanks

love your flower by the way

[bleever]

59. I'll K&R this.

Just stay off of Putinworld's radar, okay?

[ralps]

60. There are a bunch of threads at firedoglake.com today writing about the

polonium incident if you all are interested
http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/12/01/weaponized-poloni... /
http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/12/01/more-on-polonium-... /
http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/12/01/late-nite-fdl-som... /

[upi402]

62. yeah, his WIFE was exposed but was not at the lunch with Mario

that would explain why she had exposure and was not at lunch with the exposed Italian.

[buddysmellgood]

63. Quite few leaps there. But nice imagination.

[rman]

64. what leaps?

[buddysmellgood]

69. The idea that second hand smoke would not be enough to contaminate others.

I think many more people would be sick from the second hand smoke.

[rman]

71. People did get sick from 2nd hand smoke

from the OP: "..would also account for the delayed reaction in Mario and also Alex's wife..."

So you went from "quite a few leaps" to "i think there's one leap" - which turns out not to be a leap.

[buddysmellgood]

72. I gave you one. Thought you might be able to read more critically on your own.

It is a huge leap to assume the rate of contamination and toxicity of the second-hand smoke laced with the poison. Can you think of any other ways his wife might come in contact with the poison?