Rasmussen Update: 49-49 !! With 2 Tossups left (MO & VA)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm

Senate Balance of Power
November 4, 2006
On the final Saturday of Election 2006, the race for control of the Senate is tied. The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power summary now rates 49 seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat and 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and two as Toss-Ups. The two remaining Toss-Ups are both seats defended by incumbent Republicans—Jim Talent in Missouri and George Allen in Virginia. See our complete State-by-State Summary.

Today, Rasmussen Reports is switching Tennessee from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican.” Yesterday, we switched two states (New Jersey and Montana) from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.” All three of these races are now back to where they were when the season began.

Today, we are also switching Ohio from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat.” Rhode Island and Maryland remain as “Leans Democrat.”

If all of the races go as expected, Democrats would have to win both of the remaining Toss-Ups to reach the magic number of 51 seats to gain control of the Senate. If the Democrats win just one Toss-Up, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D) is now running for re-election as a Independent after losing a Primary Campaign to Ned Lamont (D). However, this race has no impact on the Senate Balance of Power considerations since whichever candidate wins will line up as a Democrat when the Senate convenes next January.

[FernBell]

1. You're forgetting. Bernie Sanders is not a Dem. We need to win both races.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. You don't think BS will side with Dems? We need both

because of Cheney

Welcome to DU

[cali]

4. Huh?

Bernie will caucus with the dems in the Senate just as he did in the house. For the purpose of Senate organization, he is a dem.

[Vinca]

12. When it comes to the numbers, for the purpose of chairing

committees, I don't think Bernie would be counted with the Dems, but I could be wrong.

[cali]

13. I'm not sure what you mean

but the party who controls the Senate, has the chairmanships. If there are 51 Senators, including Bernie, on the dem side of the aisle in Jan, dems control the chairmanships.

[Vinca]

14. But Bernie's not a Democrat. He wouldn't be in the Democratic count.

So if it was 50 Rep., 49 Dems and Bernie, they would keep the chairs. If it's 49, 50 and Bernie, does Cheney count on the Republican side to tie it and how would they handle a tie? Of course, worst case scenario is Holy Joe going to the other side. I don't think Bernie would ever switch to the Democratic Party. This is probably not worth pondering - I think we have an excellent chance of picking up enough seats for a majority.

[cali]

17. NO!

If it's 50 and Bernie. It's a dem Senate. Simple as that. Remember Jeffords? He turned a 50-50 Senate into a 51 D - 49 R Senate when he switched to I.

It's worth straightening this stuff out, and unlike you I don't think we have a great chance of sweeping enough seats.

[Pab Sungenis]

18. Control is decided by a straight vote at reorganization time.

The independents can choose to caucus with whichever party they choose. Bernie Sanders has a history of caucusing with the Democrats in voting for Speaker and for control of the House, and we have every reason to believe he will continue to do so in the Senate.

Remember the Senate of 2000. On January 3, 50 Republicans voted to give themselves control and 50 Democrats voted the opposite way. Gore broke the tie to give Democrats temporary control and a power-sharing agreement was worked out. The Senate reorganized after Cheney was inaugurated, and he broke the tie in favor of the Republicans but upheld the power sharing. When Jeffords switched to Independent, he caucused with the Democrats and Daschle forced a reorganization vote. 51 votes for Democrats, 49 for Republicans, and we had control for a very short time. Just too bad we did nothing with it.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

24. I don't think you understand.

If elected, he will caucus with the Democrats. For the purposes of chairmanships, etc. that is the only number, the number of people in the Dem and Repub caucuses, that is important.

Remember Jim Jeffords? He became an independent, not a Democrat. He caucused with the Democrats, which is what gave them temporary control of the Senate.

[Vinca]

27. Thanks all. It finally sunk into my aging brain. nt

[PCIntern]

3. WTF?

Aren't they a little behind the curve? They just decided that Ohio is going Dem? Wotta bunch of geniuses. Maybe they were helping Doug Feith create the post-war policy too...

Lemme just say that if Ohio were truly 'close', there'd be no chance at all for the Dems. Anywhere.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Curious isn't it. But I do know Rasmussen is quite right wing so

if even they are saying it is this close -- so much for the idea
that they will jack up the repub numbers. Or - maybe it is
truly a whole lot better for the dems than this???

I wouldn't be so sure about MT - they say the repubs are gaining

HURRY TUES !!!

[Nimrod2005]

8. MT and NJ, they have pretending that it is much closer, I think

It is going to be much better for us on November 7th...Yes these guys are righties...

[Nimrod2005]

6. We are going to win both....

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. hope your right - but I think they have plans to steal MO....

[Nimrod2005]

9. We have seen plenty of coverage from MO, they don't have anything on

us...In fact, some of their own internal numbers show them 5-6 points behind...I am going to find a link shortly.

[ClintonTyree]

10. The thought that LIEberman will align himself with the Dems........

is dubious, at best. He's stood firmly with his president in the past and I've seen nothing to convince me that he'll change if he wins. I think you can put LIEberman squarely in the (R) column. AFter all, they paid for his re-election campaign and they WILL expect a return on their investment.

[Clark2008]

11. So sad for my fellow Tennesseans.

I had such high hopes that our people had finally overcome the conservative media Juggernaut that we have in this state.

In fact, reports on early voting say that the Democrats have out-voted the Republicans by 18 percent:

Using the Kerry figures above, Democrats have an early voting turnout advantage over Republicans of around 18%. Averaging all the methods together, we can estimate that early voting turnout among Democrats was up around 15% higher than Republican levels. Certainly, that is not good news for the GOP GOTV machine - as it begins to ramp up its infamous 72-hour program. The GOP will need to get people to the polls on election day in order to make up turnout ground - a harder proposition than reminding voters they could vote anytime during the 14-day early voting period.

Clearly, Ford and the Democrats won the battle of getting their folks to the polls early. An 18% advantage is pretty impressive and bodes very well for the Congressman and his campaign.

(And this is from Republican blogger, Adam Groves): http://www.tnpoliticsblog.com/2006/11/analysis_early_voting_who_bene.php

I know it's not over until Candy Crowley sings, but the national polls show gloom and doom for Tennesseans - even those who are voting for Bob KKKorker don't seem to understand that they're hurting themselves (if they make less than $200,000 a year) and the entire state. KKKorker will be either stymied in a Democratic Congress OR will do nothing but rubber-stamp Bush's agenda, which will, in turn be a disaster for this state. Tennessee wages are already low compared with national averages and our educational system is a joke (excluding individual school systems in the larger cities, which do well - thankfully my son attends school in a larger city). KKKorker isn't going to change any of that - he'll continue to cut taxes on the wealthy, leaving Tennessee's poor and middle class left to either pay more in state in local taxes per income and/or leaving us to pay more in unfunded mandates.

It looks like this state, after suffering through the financial stagnation of a Republican governor for eight years before finally voting in a good Democrat in Phil Bredesen, who has changed things completely around (yes, to the behest of some working poor because he had to cut TennCare - but, sadly, he HAD to do it because Sundquist ruined our budget for eight years), hasn't learned its lesson about which party is, in actuality, the more fiscally prudent: the Democratic Party.

I would implore anyone on this board with any connection to AAR or any other liberal programming to PLEASE, PLEASE come into Tennessee outside of Memphis. Nashville is ripe, and even the CITY of Knoxville votes blue (it doesn't look so on the maps because the county of Knox votes red, and overshadows us urban dwellers, but I promise Knoxville voted for Bredesen and Kerry and will go Ford). We NEED some alternative media in this state or we're NEVER going to fully understand how much the Republican Party HURTS our state.

Sorry for the rant: it just hurts to watch the rest of the country waking up and my state, looking for all the world, like a state still stuck sleeping in a Republican nightmare.

[Pab Sungenis]

21. Tennessee has a closet problem.

A lot of people on here have been talking about closet votes, people who won't admit to their friends or a pollster that they're abandoning their party of long standing and voting the other way. I think we're seeing a similar effect in Tennessee.

In TN we're dealing with a closet racist vote. A lot of people would never admit to a pollster that there was no way they'd ever vote for a black man, but when they're in privacy area within the confines of Dieboldland, will happily, secretly, push the button the other way.

Of course, I hope I'm wrong, both for our electoral chances and for the soul of the nation.

[Pab Sungenis]

15. DON'T COUNT ON LIEBERMAN'S SEAT.

I hate to have to keep repeating this, but we have no guarantee that Lieberman will caucus with us; he'll know that he owes his reelection to the Republicans who abandoned their own candidate for him, and if he holds the balance of power, they'll make him some really tempting offers.

Also remember that if Rummy resigns or is forced out and ** appoints Lieberman as Secretary of Defense, Jodi Rell gets to appoint a Republican to replace him.

We cannot rely on Lieberman; we have to work harder to flip Tennessee or Arizona into our column or we may be back where we started in 2000.

[BootinUp]

16. A McClatchy poll just reported on MSNBC

paints a better picture for the repukes.
Saying Burns is tied and has momentum in MT, RI (R) up by one, TN Corker up by 12, VA Webb up by only 1.

[PCIntern]

19. I saw that and almost don't believe it...

sounds liek a lot of crap to me...otherwise known as an outlier...

[KharmaTrain]

20. I Like That Scenario...McLauglin Predicted Democrats to take the Senate

You could see Pitchfork Pat bristle at facing the reality and Fatass Tony Blankley prefered to punt...but had to concede most of the races...and you know he had to be dying a thousand death.

I like our odds in both races. McCaskill's organization and work in the rural counties...lessons learned from her failed bid in '04 will tip the balance and Prop 2 will bring more of our people out than theirs. Webb has really turned it on in the past month and has gained a point or two a week since the Macaca episode...Felix lost the military vote with his being a rubber stamp of booosh. While many military-types...especially younger veterans, won't say it aloud, when they're in the booth, Webb will get their vote.

It would be delicious to get the 51 without LIEbermann being a factor...and I still have hopes for some nice surprises.

A telling tale was the lastest RNC blast fax from Mehlmann that pooh-poohs the exit polling and claiming that the critical races always happen in the earlier part of the evening. This sure sounds like Kenny's expecting a long night and now the "firewall" is to try to keep his horde from seeing the early wave blowing Repugnicans out of the water in the east and even more people either switching over or staying home as the night progresses.

[Pab Sungenis]

22. I have this sneaking suspicion that they're going to call a tie or GOP Senate early in the evening

...then have to retract it, 2000 style, at midnight when Arizona shocks everyone.

I can dream, can't I?

[KharmaTrain]

23. You're Not Dreaming...

My concern is the machine problems that could create messes all over the country. This isn't just rigged machines but we're looking at 90% of the country voting with a different system than they did in previous elections.

I'm hopeful Peterson can ride the wave...and that Heyworth is swept out in the process. It would make my trip to Arizona for Spring Training next March a very nice one indeed.

My barometer has been any incumbent that hasn't topped 45% is in deep trouble...last poll I saw had Allen knuckledragging around 43 and Talent is hovering on 45. If the undecideds break 2/3 to the challenger (as has been the past trend), both are in serious trouble.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Do tell...."Spring Traing"

[KharmaTrain]

26. Baseball...Hope Springs Eternal

This Northerner needs some sun and baseball in Tuscon...to see the beauty of the desert and to cheer on my White Sox. It'll be nice knowing there's surely going to be a Democratic Congressperson representing the area. Heck, I may even venture up to Phoenix this time.

Cheers...and here's to partying in another "trending blue" state.

Cheers...

[goclark]

28. ROVE will really like those numbers

That puts him exactly where he needs to be with DIEBOLD.