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Marketplace just reported that the 4.4% jobless # is based on the "Household Survey"...

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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 07:59 PM
Original message
Marketplace just reported that the 4.4% jobless # is based on the "Household Survey"...
Edited on Fri Nov-03-06 08:12 PM by Up2Late
...which they called the "notoriously volatile" Household Survey which also said that 437,000 jobs were created, as opposed to the official number that was released today, that showed 92,000 jobs.

<http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2006/11/03/PM200611031.html>

<http://marketplace.publicradio.org/>

PLUS, if you take out the newly created GOVERNMENT JOBS, it knocks that number down to about 58,000 October Jobs!


...Health care and other service jobs fared especially well. But construction and other housing-related jobs fell by 33,000 last month. Factories lost 39,000 positions.

Jared Bernstein is with the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank funded by labor unions. Bernstein says when you exclude government work, the private sector added just 58,000 jobs last month. That's the worst performance in a year.

JARED BERNSTEIN: There is enough in this report, both in terms of slowing job growth, in terms of some of the problematic sectors like housing, to lead you to believe that the slowing economy is gonna start showing up in the job market in coming months.

As for the unemployment rate hitting a five-year low, Bernstein says it might be a little off. It's based on a notoriously volatile household survey which showed the economy created 437,000 new jobs last month.

Bernstein says the only people who believe that number are running for office....


(more and the audio at link) <http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2006/11/03/PM200611031.html>



ALSO! I heard NPR report (during their hourly updates) that the reason that the September and August numbers were revised upward, was because they added in "THE SELF-EMPLOYED!!!"

Note: They only reported the Self-Employed part once, about mid-afternoon, so I don't have a link to that, but I bet if you did some digging, someone here could find this among the "Fuzzy Math."
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:08 PM
Response to Original message
1. What did you expect the week before elections?
The lying-est administration ever was going to tell the truth a few days before the elections? Not a chance. Christ, they've lied about EVERYTHING since day one, they sure aren't going to tell the truth now.
After the Bush administration is gone (finally), the American people are going to find out the truth about what's been going on the past 8 years. Bush better get his lying ass to Paraguay, pronto, because Americans are going to be after his ass and they're NOT going to be kind! :grr:
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Vorta Donating Member (704 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
2. Reserves
Do guys serving in the reserves in Iraq count as having one job or two? Since their wives have to work two jobs to keep the house afloat, are they driving down the unemployment stat?

Are the two million people in US prisons who do work in the prison considered employed?
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. Those are Great questions too! I know that Prison Labor is way up...
...since Bush took over.

Welcome to DU! :toast:
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
3. That's their spin right now
I signed up for Christie Todd-Whitman's a long time ago to see what 'moderate' Republicans actually do. She's never one time opposed anything out of this administration. Anyway, she sent out her Bush talking points today, all about the great economy. Here's what I posted to her blog, we'll see if they post it.


Once again, Ms. Whitman proves she is not on the side of change and taking her party back from the extremists. Rather than tell the truth about the negative affects of trade agreements and excessive spending on our economy in her “Reasons To Vote On Tuesday” email, she chooses to join the Bush talking point machine.

1. When Republicans have bad economies, they say Presidents have no control over the free market. Or blame a Democrat. In any event, the recession began in March 2001 and ended in Nov 2001, completely under Bush’s watch. It’s irrelevant to anything today. And GDP at the close of business on Nov 3 is 1.5 percent.

2. The Bush Administration has been manipulating the numbers for some time. Unemployment is figured by a survey, not actual unemployment claims as some believe. You may recall when the Administration attempted reclassifying “making” hamburgers as manufacturing. Well they did a similar thing with employment. Now, if you can’t find a job - but mow lawns or have a weekly tag sale in your garage - you’re considered employed. In addition, the only real job growth in the last 5 years has been in the health industry.

3. The Dow is no longer a measure of this country’s economic health. Earnings from multi-national corporations do not reflect the economy in this country because most of the growth in the world is in China and India. Stock profits are only marginally beneficial as retirees receive only 19% of their income from assets while receiving 20% of their income from work. The retiree with a social security check, pension and savings has gone the way of the 40 hour work week, just another happier time in our nation’s history.

4. Wages have only increased 2.8% since 2001, the worst performance in history. Corporate profits have increased a whopping 62%!!! When do workers get their fair share?

5. Productivity has fallen flat this summer. That’s what happens when you can’t increase the work day any longer or move any more people into salaried positions. In other words, it’s what happens when you’ve exploited labor all it can be exploited without causing a labor riot.

Ms. Whitman wants you to look at numbers. Well let’s. Annual health care expenditures are expected to reach $4 Trillion Dollars by 2015. Health care premiums are increasing 8-9% EACH YEAR. The poverty rate has risen from 11.3% in 2000 to 12.6% in 2005. Property taxes have tripled across the country. You currently owe $28,575.20 of the $8,576,549,393,437.38 national debt.

It’s time for a change.

http://www.lightupthedarkness.org/blog/

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Gabi Hayes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. fan TAS TIQUE!
deserves a thread of its own

seriesly


so does the BS "household" method of determining unemployment rates...completely unreliable
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niceypoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
5. They have been doing this for the last three + years
Edited on Fri Nov-03-06 08:36 PM by niceypoo
they tossed out using employment stats and started using this survey in 2004. It is always a few percent lower than the real numbers. I judge by looking in the jobs section in the paper. When Clinton was president, there were three full pages of job ads in the weekday classifieds and double that, or more, on sunday. Now there are a half page on weekdays and maybe a page and a half on sunday. Not even close to Clinton days yet they claim the same unemployment numbers. If Clinton had used the survey he would have had unemployment numbers in the minus category.
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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. You need to take into consideration the on-line job postings
that are leaving traditional newsprint As fast as possible...

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area51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. online job ads
Those are looking pretty anemic, too.


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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-04-06 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #8
14. But when you put them together...
That's all I am saying...

If I use a stat, I always try to put it in context when I compare it with something else..
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. I think I remember hearing that, but it just didn't click with me...
...or set off any alarm bells that this was a "Survey" and not the actual numbers.

Thanks for the info.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 08:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. Heh heh heh. I knew they were lying, but this is worse than I thought.
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Jack Rabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
10. Sounds like an election-year calculation . . .
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Mayberry Machiavelli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
11. Where did these numbers USED to come from, before shrub?
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-03-06 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I think they came from actual Dept. of Labor job numbers...
...which I think is where the 92,000 number came from.

I bet this is why they keep "revising up" the past month numbers every month. The numbers don't come out at the same time, and the "household survey" numbers are so wildly different (and easy to manipulate) that, I bet they are averaging the two when the "revise" the the past months numbers.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-04-06 02:16 AM
Response to Original message
15. kick n/t
:kick:
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-04-06 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. kick n/t
:kick:
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