An overview of the most recent senate polls

[Bucky]

from TPMCafe's Poll Tracker page

The Good News:

Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision (Rep) Nov 1 Casey (D) 49%, Santorum (R) 39%
Quinnipiac Nov 1 Casey (D) 52%, Santorum (R) 42%
Keystone Nov 1 Casey (D) 53%, Santorum (R) 38%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Casey (D) 53%, Santorum (R) 44%


Michigan
Detroit News Oct 31 Stabenow (D) 52%, Bouchard (R) 38%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Stabenow (D) 49%, Bouchard (R) 42%


Washington
Str. Vision (R) Oct 31 Cantwell (D) 52%, McGavick (R) 44%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Cantwell (D) 50%, McGavick (R) 46%
SurveyUSA Oct 30 Cantwell (D) 54%, McGavick (R) 41%
Rasmussen Oct 30 Cantwell (D) 52%, McGavick (R) 41%


Minnisota
St. Cloud Univ. Oct 31 Klobuchar (DFL) 56%, Kennedy (R) 31%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Klobuchar (DFL) 51%, Kennedy (R) 43%


New Jersey
CNN Oct 31 Menendez (D) 51%, Kean (R) 44%
Quinnipiac Oct 31 Menendez (D) 49%, Kean (R) 44%
Str. Vision (R) Oct 30 Menendez (D) 43%, Kean (R) 42%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Menendez (D) 49%, Kean (R) 43%


Maryland
Rasmussen Oct 30 Cardin (D) 49%, Steele (R) 42%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Cardin (D) 53%, Steele (R) 44%



The Bad News:

Connecticut
Quinnipiac Nov 1 Lieberman (CFL) 49%, Lamont (D) 37%
Rasmussen Oct 31 Lieberman (CFL) 48%, Lamont (D) 40%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Lieberman (CFL) 47%, Lamont (D) 43%



The Nail Biters:

Montana
Rasmussen Oct 30 Tester (D) 51%, Burns (R) 47%
. . . .This is one we shouldn't be so close on. Burns is certifiable. Montana may be the bluest of the red states,
. . . .but the only recent poll listed at TPM tells us we're still in a sweat zone here. Yuck.

These next four are where the funny stuff will happen. They're close enough that a few nudges at the polling places can do a lot of damage and would be very hard to detect. Each of these next four are salvageable by Republicans; if these are your states, then please take the day off from work and GOtv save your country.

Missouri
SurveyUSA Oct 31 McCaskill (D) 49%, Talent (R) 46%
CNN Oct 31 Talent (R) 49%, McCaskill (D) 49%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Talent (R) 49%, McCaskill (D) 47%
. . . .Democrats have a secret weapon in this race: Rush Limbaugh. Please, sir, talk some more. On the other hand, the only poll
. . . .that has McCaskill up is SurveyUSA and I really don't trust their methodology.


Virginia
Roanoke Coll. Nov 1 Allen (R) 45%, Webb (D) 42%
Rasmussen Oct 31 Webb (D) 51%, Allen (R) 46%
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Webb (D) 51%, Allen (R) 47%
GHY (Dem) Oct 30 Webb (D) 47%, Allen (R) 43%
CNN Oct 30 Webb (D) 50%, Allen (R) 46%
. . . . Another 'biter with both some voting machine irregularities and a Republican party willing to win at all costs


Tennessee
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Corker (R) 49%, Ford (D) 48%
CNN Oct 31 Corker (R) 52%, Ford (D) 44%
Benenson (Dem) Oct 30 Ford (D) 48%, Corker (R) 43%
. . . .That CNN poll is like a punch in the gut. I really hope it's wrong, but the fact remains that African American
. . . .candidates often get 5-10% fewer votes on election day compared to opinion poll results. I have family in Tennessee
. . . .and would like to think they've evolved beyond that point, but this one really doesn't look too good for us.


Ohio
Zogby Int. Oct 31 Brown (D) 49%, DeWine (R) 47%
. . . .Only ONE poll on TPM on this race. I find that strange--and disconcerting. DeWine has closed the polling gap
. . . .dramatically in the last week. Plus this is freakin' Ohio. This is where the rats will stink the highest Tuesday.
. . . .I more or less trust Zogby's numbers--it's pretty tough to rig an opinion poll as long as the pollster values his
. . . .professional reputation. So the real danger is that Brown's majority my suffer from "death by a thousand cuts."


The Why-Did-They-Even-Bother-Polling States:

A few Zogbys on non competitive races, as of October 31st
AZ: Kyl (R) 52%, Pederson (D) 44%
NV: Ensign (R) 58%, Carter (D) 37% <== for purely sentimental reasons, this one hurts the most
TX: Hutchison (R) 55%, Radnofsky (D) 36%
NM: Bingaman (D) 58%, McCulloch (R) 38%
WI: Kohl (D) 47%, Lorge (R) 38%
NY: Clinton (D) 57%, Spencer (D) 33%
FL: Nelson (D) 54%, Harris (R) 40%
. . . . hate to say it, but if Crazy Kate breaks 40%, that should count as a moral victory for her
. . . . .(and a moral stain for the rest of Florida)


California . . . . a rare nonZogby
Field Poll Nov 1 Feinstein (D) 55%, Mountjoy (R) 33%

[Alamom]

1. Thank you for the update.

This is very helpful and I love your commentary...:applause:

[MGD]

2. These two sites are pretty reassuring too

if you are one of those people who spends a lot of time worrying about the poll numbers that is.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I always fall back to this site.
edit: scroll all the way down and see if those numbers don't give you a warm fuzzy feeling.

http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php
This one is pretty helpful too

[Old and In the Way]

3. Great analysis.

I wonder about CT....I think there could be a huge Lamont GOTV and I'm not sure how solid Joe's Democrat or Republican support is. I wonder if this could be a real shocker....I'm not writing Lamont off.

[JohnnyRingo]

4. Very good....Here's another comprehensive overview:

From the NYTimes:
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html

It's a great interactive map representing all the electoral battles with up-to-date polls.

Edited for spelling

[cnlst8]

5. nice write-up, but I don't trust Zogby Int polling since it's not always accurate.

Zogby Int. is an on-line polling system, last time I check the method they use is to distribute emails to certain "selected" people from pre-selected areas, and then tabulate the results. Most people generally ignore certain emails, which lead the poll to have mixed result at times. One month I see a candidate up by 10% and next poll 2 weeks later showing the same candidate down by 1%, with virtual no reasoning behind the shift. Zogby Int. polling data is plain erractic.

[OKNancy]

7. Zogby interactive is totally different

than their other methods. They use traditional methods on the published polls.
I've often thought they use interactive as a way to keep the buzz going about their company.

Edit: Zogby Int means International not Interactive. Also they often team with Reuters for their telephone surveys.

[Jed Dilligan]

6. Thanks for posting

Suggestion: You should post margins of error--they often exceed the reported "lead".

[Chipper Chat]

8. Interesting blog from Athens Georgia - pug stupidity + freeper reply

Poll: Will Democrats take over Congress?
David Bill posted on October 17, 2006 - 9:45am.
If you listen to the talking heads on the the cable news channels (maybe even a little bit of it on Fox), you'd think it was over for the GOP this November. They're doomed. The war in Iraq is raging out of control. A long-time representative disgraced in a sex scandal. North Korea is exploding nukes. Iran is taunting us.
There are only a handful of seats in both chambers that would need to change hands for a shift in power. Are we going to see a Newt Gingrich-type of takeover come Election Day? What do you think? Vote in the poll below and please feel free to add your comments
REPLY
hummm, Swan? Clean out what
Submitted by superspy (not verified) on October 25, 2006 - 10:04pm.
hummm, Swan? Clean out what chicken house? Do you need your house cleaned out? Are you a chicken? Perhaps, you are. If you don't think the Republicans need to stay seated, then you are definitely "living in a chicken house". OH, my friend ,, right now, the worst thing that could happen to us, The American Way" would be to let anyone other than the Republicans in the HOUSE,, all Houses!! The Democrats are going to give away every hard earned penny we have worked for to the welfare, non working, people. The Libertarians, we should seriously think about that vote. We would probably all be better off if we voted in a Libertarian. However, Americans don't get the jest of that, yet. It'll take years before they do. Just think for one moment.. How would you like to KEEP all the money you make? Just pay taxes on what you buy to live. NO IRS, NO giving up your hard earned money to people who don't work, scam the system, deal drugs for a living. As it is we pay the taxes for them?? GOD help us!! Let's kick those chickens/Democrats out of our house and take it back. We own the damn house!! Let's keep it ours and ours only!!Let's keep our money for our families. We work for it!! Quit giving it to the people who don't work!!! Also, let's pray that we keep the war on the enemys turf. Over there, not over here. I don't mind paying for that!! Spy