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Some stuff I've heard about some races from "insider" types

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Sammy Pepys Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:25 PM
Original message
Some stuff I've heard about some races from "insider" types
Nothing groundbreaking, but here's what I'm hearing from a conglomeration of people either working the campaigns or doing independent polling work:

1) Allen wins in Virginia by about 3 points.
2) Burns probably loses, but it will be tight.
3) Chafee is gone.
4) Corker wins Tennessee.
5) Menendez should've had NJ locked up by now...things look to be trending Keane. Dems need strong turnout here.


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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. Insider types?
And just who might these insiders be? I don't mean their names, I mean what positions do they hold that give them all this inside knowledge? Beyond that, I think posts like this are rather pathetic, and serve no positive purpose. The election is still 9 days away. A lot could happen.
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Sammy Pepys Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. Fair enough...
Three are working campaigns...two of them being a position seperated from the manager.

Two are polling analysts...one at an independent company, the other a "not so independt" company...if you get my drift.

Also, three members of Congressional staff.
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. Win or lose, Conrad Burns might find himself on a jail cot before much longer.
At least that's the prediction of Oklahoma Republican Senator Tom Coburn.
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Skidmore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
3. Freaking "insiders" are a real part of the problem.
IMHO.
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Cessna Invesco Palin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Indeed.
We certainly wouldn't want anyone with actual experience running a campaign. Not every insider is an Al Shrum or a Donna Brazille.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:46 PM
Response to Original message
4. it's all about turnout. GOTV!
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:48 PM
Response to Original message
5. Groundbreaking? thuis is notthing
Allen will lose VA by aboiut three points.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. You talk to pessimists evidently.
The only one of those I think we are going to lose is TN. But even that could go our way with some luck. Webb is going to take Allen, I have a good feeling there. Burns is done. Menendez will win.
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Joe for Clark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
8. Cali makes good sense.
I am telling you - for a fact - There is no way any pollster out there can anticipate who is really going to vote on Nov 7th and who is not.

And I know one thing equally true in our history as a country - angry americans vote. It is really true. And this is about as bad as I have ever personally seen it.

For myself, I am damn sure - (and there are no numerical studies even possible) - any democrat within the margin of error has a probability to win - and that is based on our history as a country. As long as we vote.

We will.

Joe



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Carrion Donating Member (206 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
9. Jeez
My dead grandmother could have come up with those picks..........
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saracat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
10. Those "insiders" sound "leaning Repug" and their info is old.
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 04:26 PM by saracat
Menendez is up in NJ and Webb leads in Va.I agree about Burns and Chaffee but Corker is NOT getting Tenn in a walk if at all.
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Sammy Pepys Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Most certainly not Republicans....
...that Iassure you. They're not pessimistic, just cautious. They are actually very optimistic about Jersey....they're just not resting on their laurels there.
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saracat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. I agree with that! no one should be resting on their laurels anywhere
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. RI man on C-SPAN this morning said Whitehouse STILL has a lead over Chaffey
and it looks like that's the way it will stay. He made it sound like Whitehouse had all but won. :) Last I heard, Burns still trailed Tester too. Has that changed? The Corker/Ford race if very iffy. Corker has a slight lead.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 05:12 PM
Response to Original message
15. Sounds Like Conventional Wisdom
But Allen and Corker are not locks...

If this was Vegas they would problably be 2-1 favorites...
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