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Watch the Undecideds this week.

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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:02 PM
Original message
Watch the Undecideds this week.
Many races still have significant percentages in the "Undecided" column. With one short week left in the campaign it's time to pay attention to those professed undecided voters. Because of the political environment favors the Democrats this year, these voters will probably break for the Democrats. The only question is, by how much. If one assigns values from the generic Congressional ballot the Dems could gain a point or two as more undecideds pull the D lever than the R lever. In the closest races, that may be enough.

Now, one could make all sorts of arguments for how these undecideds will vote, but I like the one that asks, "If the Republicans haven't sold their plan at this late date, the Democrats aren't Democrats more likely to get the benefit of the doubt?"

Another dynamic which may be important is when there is a strong Dem candidate up-ticket. Safe statewide Dem candidates for Governor, US Senate, or other statewide offices could also pay benefits. This certainly may pay off in states like OH or PA where both the Governor and Senate races are heavily favored for us Dems. Down ticket, races like Mean Jean Schmidt vs Dr. Victoria Wulsin may pay off for the Democrat. Coat-tails may be important this year.

So, when you see a poll of likely voters that has the Dem behind 39/37 and 15% undecided, remember that the two percent could easily be made up by those 15% of voters who are having a lot of trouble committing to a Republican incumbent. That cannot be good news for the GOP.
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porphyrian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:07 PM
Response to Original message
1. Undecided my ass. You'd have to brain dead to be undecided now. - n/t
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Lex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Plenty of brain dead voters around.
2004 was evidence of that.

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BOSSHOG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
3. What is there to be undecided about?
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 01:17 PM by BOSSHOG
It boggles the mind that anyone on the 30th of October would not know who they would vote for:

Webb or Allen
Ford or Corker
Brown or Wine
McKaskill or whatshisname

You either are a constitution hating asshole who will vote for republicans or you want change now.
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Ishoutandscream2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Boss, there are a bunch of "constitution hating assholes"
out there. Either that, or they are just too damn ignorant to understand it.
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
4. I guess I don't understand
people who, at this late date, can't make up their minds. Hard hard can it be?

I voted absentee last week. There were a couple of initiatives I stewed over for a bit, but for the main candidates it was a no-brainer.

THe race I find most annoying in this regard is the Webb/Allen race. Allen is such a smary little twit. How he's polling ahead is mind boggling to me. What ever in the world do people in Virginia see in this guy. He comes across as dumb as a post. Anyone 'undecided' about that race is truly clueless.

Mz Pip
:dem:
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. i really don't think anyone is undecided, undecided is for primaries and not for
a general imo, i think these "Undecideds" are really "Don't wanna tell you"
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
6. Undecideds late in the campaign as a rule usually break 2-1 for
the challenger.
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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:16 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Bingo!
You've got it. Dems benefit. Even if it's just momentum the benefit will go to the Dems.

But, you're correct. These people may be undecided because they just don't want to say. Most of them are likely going to pull the "D" lever.
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Finder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
7. From what I can tell...
Undecideds as well as first time voters are planning to vote for change. I have heard many say a combination of "no incumbents" and "bring back checks and balances."

I am hopeful the dems will take the house at least.

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