Truth Is All Analysis - How Repukes Can Steal Mid Term Election

[Ugnmoose]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00377.htm

(snip)

One might have expected that with three years notice something might have been done. But four years later in 2006 the election machinery is if anything more vulnerable to manipulation than it was back in 2002. Last week a new set of Diebold source code was even demonstrated to be in the wild again – it was supplied to a former Maryland legislator presumably by someone seeking to warn of the software's continued vulnerability.

In 2006 what is different from back in 2002 is that the GOP is polling at record low levels. This time the Democratic Party thinks it is on a march to victory. Karl Rove, architect of the 2000, 2002 and 2004 election victories of course thinks rather differently.

All this begs a question: If voting fraud on a similar scale to that which was indicated in 2002 occurs in 2006, can the GOP keep the house?

The following analysis prepared by internet poster and statistician Truthisall - and edited and presented by Scoop correspondent Michael Collins - answers this question and very importantly identifies where Vote Fraud 2006 is most likely to take place.

The unfortunate truth is that the level of electoral malfeasance required for the GOP to maintain control of both the House and Senate is much smaller than you might assume it to be.

[leftchick]

1. thank god for TIA

and the other election fraud truth tellers! God knows most elected officials have been completely ignoring this for at least 6 EFFING YEARS!

[dchill]

2. "If voting fraud on a similar scale...?"

To quote the infamous NY Rep(robate) Peter King, "It's all over but the counting - and we'll do the counting."

[Atman]

3. Did you know that TIA is actually me? And I'm Will Pitt's boss?

Really. Honestly. That is the latest speculation on the conservative underwear stain boards. I've never laughed so hard in my life. That is one stunningly stupid group of people.

[althecat]

21. Do you have a link?

I think we are not supposed to post them here.. but you could pm me...

Or you could just post it here. Seems to me that it might be justifiable in some circumstances and this sounds like one of them.

[stillcool]

4. they've mapped it out for us...

down to the most likely precincts... wish I lived in one.

In the most likely scenario the Democrats will win 60% of the undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58 Republican-held seats. There is a 99% probability that they will win 30 or more. Therefore, the Republicans will have to steal a minimum of 16 elections in order to retain the House.

Based on the data, these are the races that will determine control of the US Senate. Unless the Democrats plan for a 1994 election shift, special attention is required. Of these states, Pennsylvania had numerous election irregularities in 2004; Ohio’s election was a disgrace; Missouri was the site of poll closing and other controversies; Tennessee experienced problems with electronic voting. In 2005 Virginia had a recount that didn’t allow counting optical scan ballots!

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00377.htm

[Grebrook]

5. They're not stealing the election, stop posting this junk, if something happens

we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. This is just going to demoralize people.

[Atman]

6. Didn't you mean "we'll drive off that bridge when we come to it?"

Isn't that the standard GOP line?

[Grebrook]

7. What exactly is your solution? Other than trying to delude people into

thinking that their vote doesn't count? If you honestly think the GOP is going to try to rig the election with tensions running this high, with the public so overwhelmingly in the Democratic camp, then you're obviously TRYING to believe it because it's what you want.

And anyway, there are too many comptetitve races for them to try to rig, they would have to trash millions of votes. Not thousands. Additionally, if the Dems overwhelmingly win the popular vote, but the GOP trashes some votes and they eak by with a minimal majority because of gerrymandering, it would undoubtedly lead to mass street protests and the public would never trust the government or the Republicans ever again. Lawsuits, demonstrations in every major city.

Shit, it might even be fun. But that's not going to happen. Just vote.

[greeneyedboy]

8. THANK YOU!

i wish everyone moaning and shrieking about fraud would just go volunteer with one of the kajillion groups watching the elections or organizing to prevent/counter all the various dirty tricks this time, e.g. http://www.electiondefensealliance.org http://www.ep365.org http://www.verifiedvoting.org etc.. or go it alone and use the tips at http://www.blackboxvoting.org/toolkit.pdf .

regardless of what some of the more corrupt GOP leaders and their minions might like to do (& i wouldn't put anything past them), fraud is going to be a lot harder this time, and http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/25/13291/514">they would need a hell of a lot of it in hundreds of places to catch up.

[Atman]

9. Where am I trying to delude people? Am I any more than you are?

You're certainly trying to delude people into thinking the GOP won't fuck with the vote. What's the difference? Your comments demonstrate incredible naivete about the issue. "Trashing votes?" Too many races to rig? This isn't 1940, Grebrook. This ain't your father's vote theft. It's electronic, it's computerized and it doesn't take living breathing humans in every precinct tearing up ballots, using false IDs, or large blocks of dead voters. It takes shitty assed computers with sub-Windows security and unauditable votes which get transmitted to central tabulating houses designed, run, and owned by the GOP.

And LAWSUITS! BWHAHAHA! They're PRAYING for lawsuits. They want 'em. The more the better. Busby-Bilbray already set the precedent. Marches in the streets? Great! What's ANSWER's theme this year, cuz that's all the GOP controlled media is going to cover again.

I'm glad you think democracy is just fun and games. Bring your kids, make balloon animals. Make up some excuses like "we didn't try hard enough" or "people voted for security" or "they had a stronger message/get out the vote drive." Or "the polls were all wrong." We've heard 'em all before.

But I'm not saying we shouldn't fight. We SHOULD fight. But I'm just hoping we'll really take the fight seriously this time. I'm not going to just take a Xanax and hope for the best.

[buddysmellgood]

10. Mass street protests? LOL. They stole 02 and 04. Maybe the third time is the

charm. Yeah, people have to vote. But look into what happened in Ohio and Florida. It's happening again. If it's close, we lose. I'm going to vote, but I'll not stop talking about the death of democracy.

[weeve]

15. Death of Democracy indeed ...

[davekriss]

14. Though I am very concerned over the possibility of...

...yet another election theft, I am still voting. Note, however, despite registering in my new town more than a month ago, I haven't yet recieved my registration card (and I'm in a highly contested state now).

[althecat]

17. Truly Delusional Viewpoints There.... Fun Is What This Will Not Be....

"If you honestly think the GOP is going to try to rig the election with tensions running this high, with the public so overwhelmingly in the Democratic camp, then you're obviously TRYING to believe it because it's what you want."

Why do you think the GOP wouldn't try to rig it. They have:
- motive - to stop themselves being tried for war crimes -
- means - the machines remain as vulnerable now (More in fact) as they were back in 2002 and 2004.
&
- opportunity - as long as morans continue to preach the "they would not dare" do it line it will be like taking candy from a baby. Not to mention the fact that 2004 proved that even in highly contested possibly bogus races - e.g. Ohio - it is impossible to get an actual recount done.

"And anyway, there are too many comptetitve races for them to try to rig, they would have to trash millions of votes. Not thousands."

The point of the article you are dissing is to show that this assumption is pure crap. They would only need to rig 15-20 competitive races.... infinitely easier to do than back in 2004 with the presidential election.

"Additionally, if the Dems overwhelmingly win the popular vote, but the GOP trashes some votes and they eak by with a minimal majority because of gerrymandering, it would undoubtedly lead to mass street protests and the public would never trust the government or the Republicans ever again. Lawsuits, demonstrations in every major city."

And there is where you tip over into the realm of true delusion. If the GOP wins narrowly the media chorus will be "get over it", there will be protests and lawsuits yes... but they will not make it onto network TV except to be ridiculed. The lawsuits will fail - the system is corrupt and the law is a pile of shit three miles high.

"Shit, it might even be fun. But that's not going to happen. Just vote."

This has happened at least three times already in the last six years. It is not fun. It is the very definition of demoralising. If you want to sit by and watch your democracy get trashed great.. but some folks plan to do their best to prevent it from happening.

[starroute]

11. OK, I live in PA-8 -- so what do I do next?

n/t

[althecat]

18. Get over to the election forum and start a VOTE FRAUD INTELLIGENCE thread....

Start off with some background info on your race and then report blow by blow what is happening from today through to the election.

Bottom line: we need intelligence about these races.

We need to know how the polls are moving and what possible explanations will be given for a departure from those poll results come election day.

We need people with their eyes open looking for patterns in how the PR war is being waged in contestable elections.

We need to know how effective the GOP GOTV effort really is in your district - if that becomes the explanation for a GOP win then we need someone to have their eyes open watching it.

[althecat]

20. The Election Reform Forum Is Here....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

[tritsofme]

12. I'm going to enjoy TIA's analysis

When we take back the House in two weeks.

I guess the default argument will have to be that they "stole" fewer races so we didn't win 100 more seats since there was a 99.9985454% probability of that happening or something like that...

But I guess I'm just a "disruptor" or whatever TIA would always say to get him banned.

[Vadem]

13. Well, how is TIA doing? I pray he is well and is up to keeping us...

all gasping at his predictions during this 2006 midterm season. Does anyone have any news as to how TIA is? Please let us know! I've really been thinking about him and praying for his good health. Thanks for any information!

[Fed Up]

16. if they were going to steal the election,

wouldn't Bush and Rove be going around with glum faces, saying, "This doesn't look good for us"?

Instead they're going around all smiley about their prospects. If they were going to steal it, they wouldn't be going around saying how great their chances are, they'd act like they were going to lose, so they could show surprise after the selection.

[althecat]

19. Why would they do that....

If they are going to steal it they will do precisely what they are doing. Expressing confidence in their GOTV efforts and pouring buckets of cold sick on the commentators who pundit otherwise. That way when they win they can explain that it is not a surprise and there is nothing to see there so MOVE ON PEOPLE. GET OVER IT!