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POLLS POLLS POLLS: 3 NEW GENERIC BALLOT POLLS: Dems lead by 17%, 13%, 14%

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Grebrook Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 05:21 PM
Original message
POLLS POLLS POLLS: 3 NEW GENERIC BALLOT POLLS: Dems lead by 17%, 13%, 14%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls /

Polls are starting to look very consistent.
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Greybnk48 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 05:26 PM
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1. Thanks, but I'm concerned about WI Gov. race
between Jim Doyle and that slimebag Mark Green. Rasmussen has Doyle ahead by 4%, Zogby by 1%, but the local St. Norbert College/WPR poll have Doyle up by 13% (which is probablyh correct). I'm worried about vote theft and cheating in WI.
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Grebrook Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. herb Kolh is up by about 30 in the senate race thouGh, our Greatest concern
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Greybnk48 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I don't perceive Herb Kohl as in danger at all
my greatest fear is that a**hole Green.
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rainbow4321 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 05:58 PM
Response to Original message
4. More polls---PollingReport website
Edited on Mon Oct-23-06 06:02 PM by rainbow4321
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm


CNN 40/57 (repuke/Dems)
ABC/Washington Post 41/54
NEWSWEEK 37/55
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 41/50



Just a few from the list--all have Dems ahead!
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ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-24-06 05:09 AM
Response to Original message
5. Some say generic polls mean nothing
I think such margins are very telling about what to expect on election day.

In 2002 election, after months and months of warmongering republicans managed to win 50,5% of the House vote. Democrats won only 46% for a net difference of 4,5%.

In 2004 election after having Kerry as the boogeyman of MA and months and months of scaring people republicans won 49% of the House vote and democrats mamanged to improve their vote to 46,5%. Margin of GOP victory was 2,5%.

If these generic polls are accurate and if they translate into votes and democrats win 55% of the vote and republicans win 42 or 43%, then I am going so far as to predict more than 40 seats in the House and takeover in the Senate.

Just to give you an example of a generic match up in a House district, where there are 50% republicans, 25 independents and 25 democrats. This is what you call a safe republican district... If generic polls are right and democrats win 2/3 of the independent vote, then you have the following:

10% of republicans staying home for whatever reason. Another 10% of republicans cross over and vote for the democrat. The republican also gets a third of the independent vote. So, in this mini district with 100 people, the republican candidate will end with 47-48% of the vote.

The democrat will get almost 100% of his base, the two trhirds of the independent vote and a 10% of the republican vote and will end with 46-47% of the vote. So, you see that no republican is safe this year.

That is why I don't agree that generic polls mean nothing...
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