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It's time to start paying attention to undecideds.

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longship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 04:19 PM
Original message
It's time to start paying attention to undecideds.
Edited on Mon Oct-23-06 04:22 PM by longship
It's two weeks out. The general rule of thumb for undecideds (and independents) is that they will break proportionally for the incumbent party. However, that rule doesn't always hold. In 1994, it clearly did not hold true. Likewise, this year with all the advantages in the Democratic Party column, and a generally large anti-incumbent sentiment, one expects that the undecideds should break for the Democrats.

Keep that in mind when you look at all these polls tightening in favor of the Democrats--few, if any are going the other way.

As an example, look at the race for FL-24, D-Curtis/R-Feeney. Zogby has recently put this race as "tied".

R-Feeney - 45%
D-Curtis - 43%
Other -- 2%
Not sure - 10%

with Curtis leading with Independents 48% to 37%.

Now, consider how the "Not sure" voters will break. If the numbers of the independents are any indication, "Not sure" should break in the same proportion for Curtis. This may be enough to swing this election for the Democrats. I figure it at:

R-Feeney 47.4%
D-Curtis 48.6%

Close, but Curtis gets the nod.

The question here is, with upwards of 80 competitive House races today, almost all of which are Repuke-held, how many of the close races will Dems take because Dems get the benefit of the undecideds? If things go the way today's numbers indicate, Curtis takes down Feeney in November.

This is why we cannot afford to let up. This is why we all have to give time and money until it hurts. There is so much at stake this year. We could get it *all* but we have to work hard for it.
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  - I totally get what you're saying  unpossibles   Oct-23-06 04:54 PM   #1 
unpossibles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. I totally get what you're saying
but I have to wonder who these people are, and how they could be Undecided right now. I don't get it.
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