BREAKING--New House polls show looming Democratic landslide

[tpsbmam]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/12/14357/845

<snip>

Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will
show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the
exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections.
It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats
found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.

This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held
districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are
currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with
"safe" leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of
Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on
safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means
Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with
between 19 and 26 more races in the "toss-up" category. This is a looming
landslide.

Update: Here are the results (PDF). I'll keep adding more as fast as I
can. Polls showing Democratic pickups are in bold:

* NY-26: Davis (D) 56%--40% Reynolds (R)
* OH-15: Kilroy (D) 53%--41% Pryce (R)
* NY-24: Arcuri (D) 53%--42% Mieir (R)
* OH-18: Space (D) 51%--42% Padgett (R)
* PA-07: Sestak (D) 52%--44% Weldon (R)
* NM-01: Madrid (R) 52%--44% Wilson (R)
* NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%--43% Taylor (R)
* NC-08: Kissel (D) 51%--44% Hayes (R)
* PA-06: Murphy (D) 52%--46% Gerlach (R)
* MN-06: Wetterling (D) 50%--45% Bachmann (R)
* IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%--46% Chocola (R)
* AZ-01: Simon (D) 50%--46% Renzi (R)
* OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%--45% Schmidt (R)
* FL-13: Jennings (D) 47%--44% Buchannan (R)
* WI-08: Kagen (D) 48%--46% Gard (R)
* IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)
* KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 48%--48% Northup (R)
* IL-06: Duckworth (D) 47%--47% Roskam (R)
* CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 47%--47% O'Donell (R)
* MN-01: Gutknecht (R) 48%--47% Walz (D)
* VA-02: Drake (R) 48%--46% Kellam (D)
* NJ-07: Ferguson (R) 48%--46% Stender (D)
* NY-03: King (R) 48%--46% Mejas (D)
* WA-08: Reichert (R) 48%--45% Burner (D)
* KY-04: Davis (R) 49%--46% Lucas (D)
* VA-10: Wolf (R) 47%--42% Feder (D)
* ID-01: Sali (R) 49%--43% Grant (D)
* CT-05: Johnson (R) 52%--46% Murphy (D)
* CA-04: Doolittle (R) 52%--44% Brown (D)
* IL-14: Hastert (R) 52%--42% Leasch (D)
* IL-19: Shimkus (R) 53%--36% Stover (D)

Every seat I have listed is held by a Republican and was polled from
October 8-10. One Democratic district, TX-17, was also polled. It showed
Edwards (D) 55%--38% Taylor (R).

[Waya]

1. Holy crap......

I hope this holds.....

[bridgit]

2. oh those poor republicans thinking they would never-ever fall...

[gordianot]

25. Just like the 1000 year Reich.

However I would not put anything past GOP Fascism.

[WI_DEM]

3. too many close races for comfort

I'm disappointed to see Johnson up by six in CT-05

[MrCoffee]

4. GO DARCY (WA-8)!!!

I'm proud to be hustlin' votes for her. She'll make a damn fine Representative.

[cyberpj]

5. Everyone knows the polls can't be trusted ever since 2004. Trust Diebold.

I love all this good news but I'm severely burned by election fraud and I have no faith that we can prevent it again. They'll do whatever they need to do to keep control of the houses. But I'll gratefully be wrong on this.

[Atman]

6. DON'T BELIEVE THESE POLLS!

Please, please, don't. We need to fight like it is the last fight of our lives...because it may well be. There is another poll posted on DU tonight showing a Senate split of 49D, 49R and 2I...and if anyone thinks Joe is really I, they're nuts. He's as independent as McCain. Unless there is a twenty point lead, I'm not buying any of this shit. They'll still steal it, but I think now they're focusing on the much easier Senate steal...at least they can always get Cheney in to break all the ties for the GOP...if there ARE any ties, because we regularly have over a dozen traitors willing to suck off Bush every time.

.

[WI_DEM]

7. If Sanders wins he'll vote with the Democrats--if Joe wins it's anyones

bet especially in a closely divided Senate.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[tpsbmam]

11. I tend to agree with you......

As much as I don't trust it now, we ALL know anything can happen and elections can be rigged. But I get sooooooooooooooo tired of negativism and nay-saying. That gets me down more than the Rethugs do sometimes.

It's true, we can't rely on polls too heavily, but it's nice to see that there's a little hope and it's nice to see that there are at least some Americans waking the hell up out of their comas.

We need to keep working our asses off up through the elections, take a break, and then working them off again to get the Dems in line and prepare for '08. And you're right, it's paying off.

[brentspeak]

28. Where did he say it was a "foregone conclusion"???

He's pointing out the obvious fact that polls such as this can lull people into complacency. Bill Clinton's staff were always instructed to work the campaign as if they were 20 points behind, even when the polls said they were 20 points ahead. That's the only smart thing to do.

And pre-election polls three weeks before Election Day are not "tangible results"; they're nothing. The only tangible results people should be concerned about are those the day after Election Day.

[Atman]

30. If WHAT is a "forgone conclusion?"

Where did I say anything is a forgone conclusion? I said we have a shitload of work still left to do, and while it is great to be optimistic, we've had it in the bag before, only to wake up punk'd. These "OH MY GOD! WE'RE GOING TO WIN THE WHOLE WORLD!" posts are coming fast and furious lately...from many the same people who are always posting "Never believe the 'MSM'" messages.

So, with all due respect...glad you're pounding the pavement, too. Keep it up. But don't stop for a moment, even to admire the polls, because you never, ever know what is coming tomorrow from the boys at BushCo.

.

[Monkeyman]

9. John Laesch closed that gap in a week Hastert was up by 30

www.john06.com

[never_get_over_it]

37. Isn't that SO exciting

I got to talk to John the other day and he is a great guy and I'm rooting for him BIG TIME - I think things are only going to get worse for Hastert with the folks testifying to the ethics committee - oh man I think John could actually pull this off

anybody who can please send John a few bucks

[frogcycle]

41. Laesch thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[SeveneightyWhoa]

10. Interesting. New member makes thread..

..telling us we're about to win in a landslide.

Ok folks, time to stop working and caring, and go home!! This election is pretty much ours!

[NNN0LHI]

14. I was once a new member here at DU

I caught a lot of hell too. Wouldn't have wanted it any different. It was one great education.

Don

[tpsbmam]

15. FYI.....

This "new member" has been working my ass off in campaigns since the age of 10, including all recent elections. Actually, it was earlier than 10 but I don't really remember those. I'm now 50, disabled, and STILL working my ass off in local and national elections. I grew up in politics, lived it daily (and hated it), and use my free time to change this country -- I don't really have much time to post on boards. But I can see that means that I'm worthless.

And what have YOU been doing with YOUR time.....I mean besides posting on message boards.

[SeveneightyWhoa]

19. Okay, tpsbmam.

I believe you.

My apologies..

[flyarm]

29. WELCOME tpsbmam..GLAD TO HAVE YOU HERE!!

AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK AND CONTRIBUTIONS!

i WAS ALSO NEW AFTER THE 2004 ELECTION..BECAUSE I WAS AN ELECTED DELEGATE FOR THE STATE OF FLA

and i worked my ass off for the party and the candidates!!

I do know what it is like to work hard in the trenches..and i appreciate your work!!

fly

[never_get_over_it]

38. Well I am very glad you posted this

even though I am absolutely scared shitless about some last minute dirty trick or the rotten macihnes taking this from us AGAIN - it is nice to see these numbers and actually feel some HOPE - so thanks for posting and lets hope with each passing day the numbers get better and hold - and that on the morning of November 8th we can all breath a sigh of relief - because I for one don't know if this country can take two more years of this crap....

[MrCoffee]

16. Interesting. A Canadian telling us how to work for our candidates.

Quit bitching. It's a good OP, and it's a boost for those of us who are working hard in the tight districts on that list to see some fruit of our labor.

[HockeyMom]

12. Peter King is the last holdout here

2%? PLEASE, we can do this.

[AX10]

13. kick

[UrbScotty]

17. But let's not stop... KEEP ON WORKING!

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/ih8thegop/78

[blue cat]

18. Even if we lose due to Diebold,

We have the people with us. Our movement is growing.

[helderheid]

20. true - time to work our asses off so there is a huge difference in

the polls between the Ds and rs that election fraud would be obvious if the repubs steal it (and why wouldn't they)

[cynatnite]

21. Polls look good, but...

Kerry's did, too. Not ready to pop any champagne just yet.

[mvd]

22. Go Lois Murphy and Sestak!

They are both being outspent pretty badly on ads, so this is remarkable.

[survivor999]

23. I'm SURE that most of the Repug money

right now is being spent on organizing ways to prevent potential D voters to vote in Nov. ANY method they could think of.

[kiteinthewind]

24. We can't get too complacent

This is great news, but remember that they could be fucking with the polls, too. We still need to make sure EVERYONE goes out to vote, and make sure NO ONE says, ah, the Dems got it, I don't need to get out there and vote. I know plenty of people that are just that lazy, at times. So celebrate the story, but let's keep hitting the ground and GOTV!

[Cocoa]

26. If you see Bush's reflection in the snow-covered hills

etc.

[brentspeak]

27. Ignore the polls

If we don't work for our local Democratic candidates, then you can expect a Republican, not Democratic, landslide.

[KingFlorez]

31. Let's not get lax

These numbers are good, they mean we need to get out and strike why the iron is hot. Call your Congressional candidate, even if they are the underdog and ask what you can do. On election day, we need to make sure we turn out our base big. There is much work to be done.

[BadGimp]

32. Taking bets that the GOP will hold onto the Congress and Senate.

Any takers?

IMHO the election has already been decided. The voting machines are in place.

I pray I loose. Seriously.

[Az_lefty]

33. Good Lord, I can't wait for Nov 8th...

here's hoping this holds up...

[lonestarnot]

34. If they think I will take any comfort in this an stay home and not

vote, someone has lost their marbles. But nice try.

[AspenRose]

35. "Looming?" Why does it have to sound like something foreboding?

You'd swear a tornado or hurricane was about to hit.

That said: Read the poll, acknowledge the poll, then it's back to work....it ain't over until it's over. Been burned too many damn times.

[SharonRB]

36. I really wish they would do some polling in Michigan

I'm dying to know how Nancy Skinner is now polling against Knollenberg.

[frogcycle]

39. Echoing most of the comments...

This is a nice progress report. It shows we are moving in the right direction, for the moment.
When Laesch reported his progress against Hastert at tonight's town meeting, everyone was pleased. But still a long way to go. But encouraged. Ok, so he's 10 pts back. If we can be "encouraged" when he's 10 pts back then we sure has hell should NOT be complacent when we're 10 pts ahead! And we need to win by big margins so fraud is harder. It ain't over til its over.

You think a NASCAR driver lets off the gas once he manages to pass the other guy with 27 laps to go?


And besides - we need enough seats to OVERTURN VETOES! Getting the majority is big, it means we get the committee chairs and run the place, control what gets voted on - but that just means we can squelch the maniacs writing laws to allow flensing , and can pass laws we want - that Bush will veto. So getting control may slow the hemmoraging, but its not enough.

[TheBaldyMan]

40. any bets there is a last minute republican landslide courtesy of Diebold

[frogcycle]

42. not taking that one

you have to wonder how blatant it would have to be before the general public went nuts.

I mean hell, when MLK was shot, nearly every major city was burned, riots lasted for days.

When people feel totally disenfranchised, realize the "system" just stuck it to them big time, will emotions finally boil over? This war has not gotten people in the streets like VN, except briefly (and lamely) at the outset. But VN was 50,000 dead, well over 100/week; we "only" lose a couple a day. But if people suddenly realized that the right to vote had indeed been cancelled along with most of the bill of rights, and that that was an enabler to an expansion of this ill-fated war into the six others wolfowitz has in his sights, would we actually be facing revolution?

If we "storm the Bastille" with votes, know we did, and they blithely nullify them and declare victory... will we... MUST we... storm the Bastille for real? Whatever that might mean.

These are scary times.

We face an enemy within whose limits seem nonexistent.

[TheBaldyMan]

45. considering 2000 & 2004 were stolen, followed by a news blackout

the main problem seems to be either of:

• verifiable paper trail voting
  
• MSM actually calling foul on dodgy outcomes
  

in the absense of the first and not much sign of the second, I'd say the Dems should start screaming and keep screaming until someone takes notice.

Gore conceded in 2000 when he should have cast a shadow over W's "presidency".

Kerry rolled over and died in 2004 when he should have kept fighting.

The stakes are too high, even taking back control of congress to put the brakes on W for the last two years is worth it.

[tenshi816]

43. Yep, that's a lot of elections to steal,

but I wouldn't put it past them to try. The question in their minds has to be is "by what percentage do we set the machines to flip the vote?".

[Occulus]

44. Hmmmm. I'll take this with a

(Apologies, dialup folks. I fixed it.)