Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

BREAKING--New House polls show looming Democratic landslide

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU
 
tpsbmam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:03 PM
Original message
BREAKING--New House polls show looming Democratic landslide
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/12/14357/845

<snip>

Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will
show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the
exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections.
It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats
found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.

This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held
districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are
currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with
"safe" leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of
Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on
safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means
Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with
between 19 and 26 more races in the "toss-up" category. This is a looming
landslide.

Update: Here are the results (PDF). I'll keep adding more as fast as I
can. Polls showing Democratic pickups are in bold:

* NY-26: Davis (D) 56%--40% Reynolds (R)
* OH-15: Kilroy (D) 53%--41% Pryce (R)
* NY-24: Arcuri (D) 53%--42% Mieir (R)
* OH-18: Space (D) 51%--42% Padgett (R)
* PA-07: Sestak (D) 52%--44% Weldon (R)
* NM-01: Madrid (R) 52%--44% Wilson (R)
* NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%--43% Taylor (R)
* NC-08: Kissel (D) 51%--44% Hayes (R)
* PA-06: Murphy (D) 52%--46% Gerlach (R)
* MN-06: Wetterling (D) 50%--45% Bachmann (R)
* IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%--46% Chocola (R)
* AZ-01: Simon (D) 50%--46% Renzi (R)
* OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%--45% Schmidt (R)
* FL-13: Jennings (D) 47%--44% Buchannan (R)
* WI-08: Kagen (D) 48%--46% Gard (R)
* IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)
* KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 48%--48% Northup (R)
* IL-06: Duckworth (D) 47%--47% Roskam (R)
* CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 47%--47% O'Donell (R)
* MN-01: Gutknecht (R) 48%--47% Walz (D)
* VA-02: Drake (R) 48%--46% Kellam (D)
* NJ-07: Ferguson (R) 48%--46% Stender (D)
* NY-03: King (R) 48%--46% Mejas (D)
* WA-08: Reichert (R) 48%--45% Burner (D)
* KY-04: Davis (R) 49%--46% Lucas (D)
* VA-10: Wolf (R) 47%--42% Feder (D)
* ID-01: Sali (R) 49%--43% Grant (D)
* CT-05: Johnson (R) 52%--46% Murphy (D)
* CA-04: Doolittle (R) 52%--44% Brown (D)
* IL-14: Hastert (R) 52%--42% Leasch (D)
* IL-19: Shimkus (R) 53%--36% Stover (D)

Every seat I have listed is held by a Republican and was polled from
October 8-10. One Democratic district, TX-17, was also polled. It showed
Edwards (D) 55%--38% Taylor (R).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Waya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. Holy crap......
I hope this holds.....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bridgit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
2. oh those poor republicans thinking they would never-ever fall...
:rofl:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
gordianot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
25. Just like the 1000 year Reich.
However I would not put anything past GOP Fascism.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:05 PM
Response to Original message
3. too many close races for comfort
I'm disappointed to see Johnson up by six in CT-05
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MrCoffee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:06 PM
Response to Original message
4. GO DARCY (WA-8)!!!
I'm proud to be hustlin' votes for her. She'll make a damn fine Representative.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
cyberpj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. Everyone knows the polls can't be trusted ever since 2004. Trust Diebold.
I love all this good news but I'm severely burned by election fraud and I have no faith that we can prevent it again. They'll do whatever they need to do to keep control of the houses. But I'll gratefully be wrong on this.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Atman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
6. DON'T BELIEVE THESE POLLS!
Please, please, don't. We need to fight like it is the last fight of our lives...because it may well be. There is another poll posted on DU tonight showing a Senate split of 49D, 49R and 2I...and if anyone thinks Joe is really I, they're nuts. He's as independent as McCain. Unless there is a twenty point lead, I'm not buying any of this shit. They'll still steal it, but I think now they're focusing on the much easier Senate steal...at least they can always get Cheney in to break all the ties for the GOP...if there ARE any ties, because we regularly have over a dozen traitors willing to suck off Bush every time.

.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:10 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. If Sanders wins he'll vote with the Democrats--if Joe wins it's anyones
bet especially in a closely divided Senate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
tpsbmam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. I tend to agree with you......
As much as I don't trust it now, we ALL know anything can happen and elections can be rigged. But I get sooooooooooooooo tired of negativism and nay-saying. That gets me down more than the Rethugs do sometimes.

It's true, we can't rely on polls too heavily, but it's nice to see that there's a little hope and it's nice to see that there are at least some Americans waking the hell up out of their comas.

We need to keep working our asses off up through the elections, take a break, and then working them off again to get the Dems in line and prepare for '08. And you're right, it's paying off.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
28. Where did he say it was a "foregone conclusion"???
He's pointing out the obvious fact that polls such as this can lull people into complacency. Bill Clinton's staff were always instructed to work the campaign as if they were 20 points behind, even when the polls said they were 20 points ahead. That's the only smart thing to do.

And pre-election polls three weeks before Election Day are not "tangible results"; they're nothing. The only tangible results people should be concerned about are those the day after Election Day.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Atman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #8
30. If WHAT is a "forgone conclusion?"
Where did I say anything is a forgone conclusion? I said we have a shitload of work still left to do, and while it is great to be optimistic, we've had it in the bag before, only to wake up punk'd. These "OH MY GOD! WE'RE GOING TO WIN THE WHOLE WORLD!" posts are coming fast and furious lately...from many the same people who are always posting "Never believe the 'MSM'" messages.

So, with all due respect...glad you're pounding the pavement, too. Keep it up. But don't stop for a moment, even to admire the polls, because you never, ever know what is coming tomorrow from the boys at BushCo.

.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Monkeyman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
9. John Laesch closed that gap in a week Hastert was up by 30
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
never_get_over_it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #9
37. Isn't that SO exciting
I got to talk to John the other day and he is a great guy and I'm rooting for him BIG TIME - I think things are only going to get worse for Hastert with the folks testifying to the ethics committee - oh man I think John could actually pull this off

anybody who can please send John a few bucks
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
frogcycle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 02:15 AM
Response to Reply #9
41. Laesch thread
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SeveneightyWhoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
10. Interesting. New member makes thread..
..telling us we're about to win in a landslide.

Ok folks, time to stop working and caring, and go home!! This election is pretty much ours! :eyes:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. I was once a new member here at DU
I caught a lot of hell too. Wouldn't have wanted it any different. It was one great education.

Don
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tpsbmam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. FYI.....
Edited on Thu Oct-12-06 07:24 PM by tpsbmam
This "new member" has been working my ass off in campaigns since the age of 10, including all recent elections. Actually, it was earlier than 10 but I don't really remember those. I'm now 50, disabled, and STILL working my ass off in local and national elections. I grew up in politics, lived it daily (and hated it), and use my free time to change this country -- I don't really have much time to post on boards. But I can see that means that I'm worthless.

And what have YOU been doing with YOUR time.....I mean besides posting on message boards.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SeveneightyWhoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Okay, tpsbmam.
I believe you.

My apologies..
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #15
29. WELCOME tpsbmam..GLAD TO HAVE YOU HERE!!
AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK AND CONTRIBUTIONS!

i WAS ALSO NEW AFTER THE 2004 ELECTION..BECAUSE I WAS AN ELECTED DELEGATE FOR THE STATE OF FLA

and i worked my ass off for the party and the candidates!!

I do know what it is like to work hard in the trenches..and i appreciate your work!! :hi: :hug:

fly
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
never_get_over_it Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 01:59 AM
Response to Reply #15
38. Well I am very glad you posted this
even though I am absolutely scared shitless about some last minute dirty trick or the rotten macihnes taking this from us AGAIN - it is nice to see these numbers and actually feel some HOPE - so thanks for posting and lets hope with each passing day the numbers get better and hold - and that on the morning of November 8th we can all breath a sigh of relief - because I for one don't know if this country can take two more years of this crap....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MrCoffee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. Interesting. A Canadian telling us how to work for our candidates.
Quit bitching. It's a good OP, and it's a boost for those of us who are working hard in the tight districts on that list to see some fruit of our labor.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HockeyMom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:16 PM
Response to Original message
12. Peter King is the last holdout here
2%? PLEASE, we can do this.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:17 PM
Response to Original message
13. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
UrbScotty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
17. But let's not stop... KEEP ON WORKING!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
blue cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:24 PM
Response to Original message
18. Even if we lose due to Diebold,
Edited on Thu Oct-12-06 07:24 PM by blue cat
We have the people with us. Our movement is growing.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #18
20. true - time to work our asses off so there is a huge difference in
the polls between the Ds and rs that election fraud would be obvious if the repubs steal it (and why wouldn't they)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
cynatnite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:35 PM
Response to Original message
21. Polls look good, but...
Kerry's did, too. Not ready to pop any champagne just yet.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mvd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:46 PM
Response to Original message
22. Go Lois Murphy and Sestak!
Edited on Thu Oct-12-06 07:46 PM by mvd
They are both being outspent pretty badly on ads, so this is remarkable.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
survivor999 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
23. I'm SURE that most of the Repug money
right now is being spent on organizing ways to prevent potential D voters to vote in Nov. ANY method they could think of.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kiteinthewind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:08 PM
Response to Original message
24. We can't get too complacent
This is great news, but remember that they could be fucking with the polls, too. We still need to make sure EVERYONE goes out to vote, and make sure NO ONE says, ah, the Dems got it, I don't need to get out there and vote. I know plenty of people that are just that lazy, at times. So celebrate the story, but let's keep hitting the ground and GOTV!
:dem: :dem: :dem: :dem: :dem: :dem:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Cocoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
26. If you see Bush's reflection in the snow-covered hills
etc.

:toast:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
27. Ignore the polls
If we don't work for our local Democratic candidates, then you can expect a Republican, not Democratic, landslide.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
KingFlorez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
31. Let's not get lax
These numbers are good, they mean we need to get out and strike why the iron is hot. Call your Congressional candidate, even if they are the underdog and ask what you can do. On election day, we need to make sure we turn out our base big. There is much work to be done.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BadGimp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
32. Taking bets that the GOP will hold onto the Congress and Senate.
Any takers?

IMHO the election has already been decided. The voting machines are in place.

I pray I loose. Seriously.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Az_lefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
33. Good Lord, I can't wait for Nov 8th...
Edited on Thu Oct-12-06 09:52 PM by Az_lefty
here's hoping this holds up... :beer:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 10:21 PM
Response to Original message
34. If they think I will take any comfort in this an stay home and not
vote, someone has lost their marbles. But nice try.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AspenRose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 11:47 PM
Response to Original message
35. "Looming?" Why does it have to sound like something foreboding?
You'd swear a tornado or hurricane was about to hit.

That said: Read the poll, acknowledge the poll, then it's back to work....it ain't over until it's over. Been burned too many damn times.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SharonRB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-12-06 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
36. I really wish they would do some polling in Michigan
I'm dying to know how Nancy Skinner is now polling against Knollenberg.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
frogcycle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 02:10 AM
Response to Original message
39. Echoing most of the comments...
This is a nice progress report. It shows we are moving in the right direction, for the moment.
When Laesch reported his progress against Hastert at tonight's town meeting, everyone was pleased. But still a long way to go. But encouraged. Ok, so he's 10 pts back. If we can be "encouraged" when he's 10 pts back then we sure has hell should NOT be complacent when we're 10 pts ahead! And we need to win by big margins so fraud is harder. It ain't over til its over.

You think a NASCAR driver lets off the gas once he manages to pass the other guy with 27 laps to go?


And besides - we need enough seats to OVERTURN VETOES! Getting the majority is big, it means we get the committee chairs and run the place, control what gets voted on - but that just means we can squelch the maniacs writing laws to allow flensing , and can pass laws we want - that Bush will veto. So getting control may slow the hemmoraging, but its not enough.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TheBaldyMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 02:14 AM
Response to Original message
40. any bets there is a last minute republican landslide courtesy of Diebold
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
frogcycle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 02:26 AM
Response to Reply #40
42. not taking that one
you have to wonder how blatant it would have to be before the general public went nuts.

I mean hell, when MLK was shot, nearly every major city was burned, riots lasted for days.

When people feel totally disenfranchised, realize the "system" just stuck it to them big time, will emotions finally boil over? This war has not gotten people in the streets like VN, except briefly (and lamely) at the outset. But VN was 50,000 dead, well over 100/week; we "only" lose a couple a day. But if people suddenly realized that the right to vote had indeed been cancelled along with most of the bill of rights, and that that was an enabler to an expansion of this ill-fated war into the six others wolfowitz has in his sights, would we actually be facing revolution?

If we "storm the Bastille" with votes, know we did, and they blithely nullify them and declare victory... will we... MUST we... storm the Bastille for real? Whatever that might mean.

These are scary times.

We face an enemy within whose limits seem nonexistent.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TheBaldyMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 03:53 AM
Response to Reply #42
45. considering 2000 & 2004 were stolen, followed by a news blackout
the main problem seems to be either of:

  • verifiable paper trail voting
  • MSM actually calling foul on dodgy outcomes

in the absense of the first and not much sign of the second, I'd say the Dems should start screaming and keep screaming until someone takes notice.

Gore conceded in 2000 when he should have cast a shadow over W's "presidency".

Kerry rolled over and died in 2004 when he should have kept fighting.

The stakes are too high, even taking back control of congress to put the brakes on W for the last two years is worth it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tenshi816 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 03:20 AM
Response to Reply #40
43. Yep, that's a lot of elections to steal,
but I wouldn't put it past them to try. The question in their minds has to be is "by what percentage do we set the machines to flip the vote?".
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Occulus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-13-06 03:23 AM
Response to Original message
44. Hmmmm. I'll take this with a
Edited on Fri Oct-13-06 03:31 AM by kgfnally


(Apologies, dialup folks. I fixed it.)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue Sep 02nd 2014, 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC