McCaskill pulls 9 points ahead of Talent!!

[proud2BlibKansan]

SurveyUSA Poll: Democrat McCaskill Pulls Ahead of Talent

October 12, 2006


U.S. Senate Seat May 'Flip'

In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 10/12/06, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill leads Republican incumbent Jim Talent 51% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, on 9/14/06, McCaskill has gained 3 points and Talent has lost 5 points. McCaskill's advantage has grown from 1 point to 9 points.

The election is in 26 days, on 11/7/06. Most of the movement in the race comes from Independent voters, who supported Talent by 12 points in September but now support McCaskill by 13 points, a 25-point swing. 91% of Democrats vote Democrat. 87% of Republicans vote Republican.

McCaskill has made big gains among male voters: Talent leads by 1 point among men, a 14-point drop from September. McCaskill leads by 18 points among women, a 2-point gain. McCaskill leads by 50 points among black voters, by 4 among white voters. 69% of those who support Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, vote for McCaskill. 82% of those who oppose Amendment 2 vote for Talent.

Talent leads in the Ozarks. McCaskill leads in the rest of MO. In Central MO, McCaskill has gone from 12 points behind to 16 points ahead, a 28-point swing. Talent defeated Democrat Jean Carnahan by 1 point in 2002, 2 years after she had been named to fill the U.S. Senate seat of her posthumously elected husband Mel Carnahan. McCaskill, who has been Missouri State Auditor since 1998, ran for Missouri Governor in 2004 and lost to Republican Matt Blunt by 3 points.

http://claireonline.com/news.jsp?key=3434&t=

[Zambero]

1. Missouri, like PA will never retain a right-wing idealogue

They may sneak into office by a whisker the first time around, but their true corporatist-fundamentalist colors will catch up with them every time. Witness the fall of Ashcroft. It's time to bid farewell to the right-wing Rickys and Jimmys of this world!

[trapandroll]

2. She kicked his butt in their debate

She clearly has the gravitas to make Talent look like the amateur that he is ....

[David Zephyr]

3. She was magnificent in the debate. Welcome to the DU, trapandroll.

:hi:

[proud2BlibKansan]

7. Yes she has bested him in a couple debates

Welcome to DU :hi:

[mvd]

4. Great news!

:bounce:

[saltpoint]

5. Claire McCaskill is a refreshing change-of-pace from Jim Talent.

I hope this poll percentage is accurate enough to be a harbinger of an even bigger victory for Claire on Nov. 7th.

Great news!

And how 'bout them Rams?!

[proud2BlibKansan]

6. How bout them Chiefs?

LOL

Go Claire!!

[saltpoint]

8. Yeah, the Chiefs are cool. I like 'em since Hank Stram days. I was just

giving Claire some creds for buying out the remaining tickets for the Rams' game a couple weeks ago so the game could be televised for fans.

I hope to god she whips Talent's worthless fanny in this Senate race.

[Nimrod2005]

9. Told you after her MTP debate...She had just won the seat that day..

An awesome strong perosn, can't wait for her to take over.

[newportdadde]

10. Have you heard how Amendment 2 is polling?

I'm starting to notice all of the vote NO, stop the cloning signs now.

[proud2BlibKansan]

12. I see lots more vote yes signs

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Overoptomists- beware of the evangelical vote

This is great news, but if there is one thing I have learned the past 6 years is that these polls have been screwed up by the Christian right to lifer voters who are 100% guaranteed to show up at the polls. Remember, these polls do not represent who actually shows up and votes- "likely" voters are more apt to be the fundies, and I think they have been responsible for a 1 to 2% margin of error in favor of the GOP. Rove has certainly known this for years now- these people are sure voters they can count on. All told, I'd put McCaskill's likely performance at about a 6% margin now- which is great, but- I am extremely guarded in my optimism over this.