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USGS automated site now showing a small quake in NK | Prelim. yield est.

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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:28 PM
Original message
USGS automated site now showing a small quake in NK | Prelim. yield est.
Edited on Sun Oct-08-06 11:52 PM by DinoBoy



USGS calls it a Mw 4.2.

This curiously showed up about three hours after the test supposedly happened (9:36 PM eastern).

VERY SKETCHY ESTIMATE OF YIELD

According to Wiki's page on the Moment magnitude scale, the relative yield of a nuclear weapon can be determined based on the moment magnitude using the following equation (be sure to read the caveats on the page, this arithmatic is FAR from set in stone):



4.2 = (2/3)(log10(mTNT/kg))
6.3 = (log10(mTNT/kg))
1,995,262kg = mTNT

So it looks to be roughly 2.0kt

Please check this site for a comparison or various nuclear weapons. This one (if I am doing my math correctly, and if the caveats to the equation hold true) does not appear to be that big.
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Subdivisions Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
1. Not good...not good at all. This has the potential for huge
and profound consequences. What will happen next?
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Taoschick Donating Member (391 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Nothing
North Korea is going to do whatever the hell it wants.
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Toucano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. Actually, I don't find the delay that unusual.
Remember, it's the USGS.

Resources are not evenly spread throughout the world, and I've often seen a delay in reporting on international events.

I think I may have even been the first one to report an earthquake to them once.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Amazing we could be so advanced and yet so slow and behind.
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. These are automated pages
They should update in seconds, not hours
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htuttle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. What do you suppose accounts for the delay?
Edited on Sun Oct-08-06 11:48 PM by htuttle
Could there be reasonable explanations for it, beyond any expected politicizations of the USGS? Is it possible that the data was withheld for a time, either by the US or SK, or that, for some reason, the globally linked sensors didn't detect it, yet more strategically placed, non-linked SK sensors did? I have seen absolutely no reports of gamma ray emissions detected, btw.

I'm asking you, because I've learned that if DinoBoy knows anything, it's rocks!

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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. Who knows...
It could have been withheld by the South Koreans, the USGS, the CIA, or the seismologiust called into work in the middle of the night.
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Toucano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. It should update with what?
Do you think they've got seismographs spaced every 10 meters all over the globe that report directly to their website?

It doesn't happen that way.

Delays like this are not uncommon.
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
6. A man made 4.2 earthquake is not a small thing.
A natural 4.2 is nothing to sneeze at. What do China and Japan say?
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-08-06 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Haven't heard yet.
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
10. So it was 10 times weaker than the ones used in WWII?
Fat Man yield was 21 kilotons.
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. It appears that way, again IF and only IF
the caveats on wiki's page hold true.
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Rex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Yeah I try to never use wiki, but I don't know anything about the math.
Thanks.
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-09-06 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. On straight science, wiki seems ok
politics and pop-culture get vandalized, but arcane science rarely if ever does.
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