Number of Republican seats in play swells up to almost 60

[ck4829]

While Democratic seats in play goes down to 14.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house...

[Demeter]

1. We'll Take Them All

A veritable tsunami of change in the government of this country, to be followed by the stripping of assets and trials and convictions and imprisonment of the criminals, and if they insist, some capital punishment for show trials.

That will make up for 30 years of abuse at the hands of these fascists.

[Neil the Werewolf]

2. Excellent!

And they've still got Foley's seat in the 'Likely R' category, which means they're still underestimating Democratic strength.

[WCGreen]

3. The "r's" have pulled their money from that race....

[Greatwildbeast]

4. That reference was from a month BEFORE the pedophile scandal broke out!

I'd sure like to see how a current evaluation of the races adds up.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. OMFG, Really? A month ago?

Holy shit, maybe even Diebold won't save their narsty li'l asses this time.

[longship]

5. Sabato is being *very* cautious here.

Many of his "lean Republican" seats are much closer at this time. These vote counters don't want to take a risk at predicting the tsunami. It's too risky for their careers if they are wrong.

But they all know one thing. This isn't gonna be close. They see the big picture just like we all do. There's nothing in the Republican column to stop this thing. The Repukes are down in every single issue, and falling further every day.

But because predicting that would risk their reputations if it doesn't happen, they stay with the safe prediction that the Democrats will take a few seats. Then, when the runaway train screams into the station on November 7th, they'll all say, "who could have imagined that this was going to be so big, so one-sided?" Or, they'll blame the polling outfits.

Actually, it *is* the polling outfits' fault. There is a huge disconnect between the monolithically descending big issue polls and the chaotic candidate polls. Why is that? Are the pollsters missing something? Are they also too conservative in updating their methodologies? Something is very, very peculiar in this disconnect. Anybody care to speculate on this?