Alito: Anyone done the numbers for straight out defeat?

[hlthe2b]

Is there any possibility (besides Fillibuster) of picking off enough Repugs to defeat him on a Senate vote?

[Burning Water]

1. Not a chance.

But why does it matter. Defeat is all that is needed.

[hlthe2b]

5. It matters because the Dems may not fillibuster...

I want to know what our "hail Mary" chances are...

[Burning Water]

12. If the Dems

don't filibuster, it's because they know they won't have to votes to sustain it or they fear the 'nuclear' option, and they fear the backlash of an unsuccessful filibuster, which might be severe. So, if they don't have the votes to filibuster, what are the chances of a straight-up defeat? You do the math. My calculations say 0%

[hlthe2b]

13. Come on... don't be insulting... They could fail to filibuster

simply because they fear the backlash--whether they have the 41 votes or not. My question is not irrelevent.

[Burning Water]

14. Didn't mean to insult you, but

there seem to be a lot of very sensitive people on this site who don't always read the comments, or the questions, of other posters. Perhaps I'm one of them. Wasn't the original question about whether or not we had a chance of a straight-up defeat of Alito? That is certainly the way that I read it.

If we lack the votes , or the will (which in practical terms amounts to the same thing), to either filibuster, prevent cloture, or prevent the nuclear option, then in what possible world do we have the votes to defeat Alito in a straight up-or-down vote??

If they had the votes to defeat Alito, why would they have to filibuster? Why would they fear a backlash? Again, I don't mean to be insulting, and I hope you don't take it that way, but I cannot follow your thinking.

[mcscajun]

2. It's extremely doubtful.

The committee vote just came down...All Ten Republicans voted FOR Alito; All Eight Democrats voted AGAINST him.

The vote in the full Senate will probably come down the same way; All 55 Republicans voting FOR Alito...and it won't matter then if any of the 44 Democrats vote FOR him or AGAINST him. Senator Jeffords of Vermont is Independent and it's not known how he plans to vote.

Senator Ben Nelson (in name a Democrat) has announced he'll vote FOR Alito.

And read this crap:
One committee Republican, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, said he was saddened that the vote today was strictly according to party and that Judge Alito was likely to get only a handful of Democratic votes in the full Senate. "What did you expect President Bush to do when he won?" Mr. Graham asked rhetorically.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/24/politics/politicsspecial1/24cnd-alito.html?hp&ex=1138165200&en=bf91db6c0d726a45&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

8. Listening to Graham...

...talk about detainees who try to get access to some kind of fair hearing as opposed to being held in limbo indefinitely, makes it clear that he not only isn't bothered by innocent people being held for long periods without any due process, but that he gets off on it.

[Grown2Hate]

3. What does it take to confirm; a simple majority?

In that case, we'd need SIX Republicans to defect (with Satan himself holding the tie breaking vote). I don't see six defecting, and that's ASSUMING that EVERY Dem. will vote no, which I see as a stretch. HOWEVER... we only need 41 Dems willing to filibuster, something I find to be FAR more within the realm of possibility. Let's all hope (AND CALL OUR SENATORS!).

[mcscajun]

4. Confirmation requires a Simple Majority.

So if the vote came down 49 Republicans voting FOR, and all 44 Dems voted Against, in concert with 5 Republicans AND Jeffords, Alito would go down.

As it is, we have one Democrat already planning to vote with the Republcians, so we'd need 6 Republcians AND Jeffords.

I don't see it.

And much as I'd love to see the filibuster happen, it wouldn't change any minds on the Republican side. They're not backing down on this. Bush won't, either. They threw us the bone of the Meirs nomination to shoot down, and now the real deal is on.

[NanceGreggs]

7. They threw us the bone of the Meirs nomination to shoot down,

Actually, they didn't - they 'shot her down' themselves. Where was Meirs' 'up or down' vote?

[mcscajun]

10. She wasn't shot down on a vote...but in the furor surrounding her

nomination.

We helped pull her down, regardless.

[mom cat]

6. Some might not nuke...Pressure them hard...even Specter.

[hlthe2b]

9. Yes... some REPUGs may vote against nuke who would

feel too threatened to vote against Alito...

[mom cat]

11. That could very well make the difference.