What the hell are "likely" voters? If someone asks me if I'm "likely"

[karlrschneider]

to vote, they will get a very clear answer. Are there people who aren't sure if they're even
-going- to vote?...

[bryant69]

1. Pattern of voting perhaps?

If you've voted in 4 out of the last 5 elections?

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[ryanus]

2. Right

Polling all registered voters may not be accurate because not all registered voters actually end up voting. Since pollsters don't know who will actually vote, they come up with criteria of who is likely to vote, and poll them. In theory this should be more accurate.

[blm]

3. If your voting habits are REGULAR - you show up to vote every election.

This way they toss out the newer and less active voters - generally skewing the poll rightwards.

[SoCalDem]

4. They look at recent elections, and count how many times you voted

If you voted in 4 of 5 recent elections, you are likely to vote...but if you only made it one time, they would consider you "iffy"....

and yes.. they all have access to those records..

That's why the whole myth of a "secret ballot" is nonsense.. If you register as a dem, they pretty much know how you voted...

and if you ever register as independent, you have to declare a party when you show up to vote in a primary, so they can give you the correct ballot, so once you vote in a primary, they mark down which ballot they gave you "R or D"..

[Javaman]

5. same as likely suspects in morons* world. nt

[Realityhack]

6. Well...

if you ask someone if they are likely to vote... some people may well say no and thats a good indication that they won't.

However IIRC likely voter pols aren't much more accurate untill the day before the election or so (I could have that wrong though).