Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Now one year after Katrina, and no major hurricanes this year?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU
 
tuvor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 12:10 AM
Original message
Now one year after Katrina, and no major hurricanes this year?
I believe there were several named hurricanes in the months before Katrina hit last year, but this year I recall hearing of only one major storm several weeks ago that petered out before it could hit the USA (near Florida, I think). Nothing else.

Is this unusual by this time of year? Or have I not been paying attention?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
geomon666 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 12:13 AM
Response to Original message
1. Amazingly enough...
Edited on Mon Aug-21-06 12:14 AM by geomon666
We have not had a single hurricane so far this year in the Atlantic. 3 tropical storms, no hurricanes. However, there is a new wave that just formed off the coast of Africa. It's looking like it'll develope.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tuvor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Well, that's good to hear.
Thanks for the good news, and let's hope we have a lucky streak this year.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 12:24 AM
Response to Original message
3. Jeff Masters @wunderground says...
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.ht...
Well, our quiet days in the Atlantic didn't last very long, as it's time to talk about a new threat area. A very vigorous tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. The waters under the wave are 27-28 C, which is .5-1.5 degrees C above the 26.5 C threshold for tropical cyclone formation--not great, but good enough. Wind shear is a modest 10 knots. There is a large area of dry air and Saharan dust to the wave's north, and this will likely be the major inhibiting factor for this wave.

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models develop the wave into a tropical storm; the UKMET does not. The GFS predicts the storm will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands.



Problem is that there is next yr, and the next yr, and the next yr, and...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
4. It may be that the Pacific has had all the action this year.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
insane_cratic_gal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 01:23 AM
Response to Original message
5. Maybe Gods not pissed off
over Gay and Lesbians atm..or liberal or anyone who disagrees with the religious republican right..
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
soup Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 06:05 AM
Response to Original message
6. some statistics
from Ed Dunham's meteorologist blog at Central FL Hurricane Center:


>>I've taken a look at the past 126 seasons (1880-2005) and captured some interesting statistics. First, the easy stuff: 25% of a season's total number of named storms occurs on or before August 15th, so statistically this would yield 12 named storms for this season since we've already had 3 tropical storms this year. But I also found that if the 3rd named storm occurred on or before August 1st, on average the season would have 13 named storms - but is this really an average season?

Just for fun, I learned that there have been 14 seasons prior to this one that started off with 3 tropical storms - and for all of those seasons, the average was 10 named storms including 4 hurricanes of which 2 were major hurricanes. The last season that started this way was 2002 - as a matter of fact 2002 started with six straight tropical storms and had a season total of 12/4/2. The 4th storm of that year was named on August 29th.

So I started to wonder what Climatology would think about this season if the next storm this year was not named until after August 25th - and the answers are interesting (if you like numbers). In the past 126 seasons, 74 of them did not have the 4th named storm until after August 25th. Nothing unusual there - seems like a common event, but what do the season totals look like when that happens?

Another interesting answer. The average season total is 8/5/2, with the highest seasons at 14/6/4 (1953) and 13/10/8 (1950). This means that in order for Colorado State (Dr Gray et al) to hit its revised forecast of 15 named storms this season, the next named storm must occur before August 26th...OR...the Atlantic basin must set a new record for season activity after August 25th.

I decided to take this statistical investigation one step further. What happens (no matter when the 4th storm occurs) if the 5th storm does not get named until after September 10th (the climatological peak of the season)? It turns out that this happens one-third of the time (42 of the last 126 seasons) - still somewhat common. When this happens, the season totals decrease to 7/4/1 on average, with the highest seasons at 11/5/1 (1898) and 10/5/2 (1943). I also discovered that there has only been one season (1968) where the 4th storm occurred before August 26th and the 5th storm occurred after September 10th. In other words, if the 4th storm happens late, usually the 5th storm does as well, but if the 4th storm happens earlier that August 26th, the 5th storm happens before September 10th.
>more:
http://flhurricane.com /

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 06:06 AM
Response to Original message
7. HUSH!!
Please! Don't tempt fate!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
flordehinojos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 07:27 AM
Response to Original message
8. o, please. no need to call any into existence. besides, the season is not
over until october. there is still plenty of time ahead. and plenty of warm ocean waters everywhere. i just hope for the miracle of a hurricane free season.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SmokingJacket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 07:32 AM
Response to Original message
9. Hurricane Andrew was the first of the season, in late August '92.
Unusual maybe, but not unheard of.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-21-06 07:34 AM
Response to Original message
10. Talk to me after late August and September
Edited on Mon Aug-21-06 07:38 AM by malaise
until then, I'll remain on alert.

Andrew was late August and so was Katrina. Gilbert hit us on September 12th 1988. Wilma hit Cancun and Cozumel in late November last year. Enjoy the current calm. Things are warming up and soon or very soon, somewhere will get hit.
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm1/caribbeansat...

Edit -reword, add.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri Apr 18th 2014, 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (01/01/06 through 01/22/2007) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC