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RW Think Tank Says Bush May Attack Iran In 12-18 Months

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kurth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:21 PM
Original message
RW Think Tank Says Bush May Attack Iran In 12-18 Months
AEI Fellow After Meeting With Bush: President May Take Military Action Against Iran In 12-18 Months

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a member of a small group of analysts who were asked to discuss their views on the Middle East with President Bush at a private lunch this week, said this morning on ABCs This Week that the mid- to long-term fallout from Israel-Hezbollah conflict could be a good thing because it may prompt Bush to take military action against Iran. Watch it:

GERECT: I think more importantly because of the way the Syrians and Iranians reacted it is possible that the president has gotten very, very angry over that issue. If, in fact, you see down the road because the premier issue for the iranians is nuclear weapons program if you see down the road the president taking a much harder line on that issue

STEPHANOPOULOS: How much harder line could he take? Are you talking about military action?

GERECT: Well yeah it is conceivable you go down the road 12 or 18 months that the president will say nuclear weapons in the hands of the mullahs is simply unacceptable as he said many times. And if in fact Lebanon contributes to the hardening of the American postion, then I would say that hezbollah actions in Lebanon were a great mistake.

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/08/20/gerecht-iran/
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MichiganVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nope.
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wakeme2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:25 PM
Response to Original message
2. I would bet sooner than that
Probably after the Nov Elections... Just my guess.
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Phredicles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. With what?
Our army's overextended as it is and air strikes would be tantamount to begging Iran to insert itself more overtly into Iraq. I know Bush is a major dumbshit, but surely this would cause a great crisis within the military.
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wakeme2008 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Cheney is telling Bush about all the Roses the people will greet us with
and IMHO he will believe Him AGAIN.... :grr:
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 09:53 PM
Response to Reply #4
12. Look at Cornwallis in 1780
Cornwallis was fought to a standstill in the Carolinas, he had two major (Through small) parts of his army defeated and destroyed (Tarleton at the Cowpens and Ferguson's Troops at King's Mountain). Cornwallis still had Charleston and all of Georgia and South Carolina, but North Carolina was in US hands and would remain so unless the supplies to the Partisans (The term Guerrillas had not yet been invented, that term would replace partisan the Peninsular Campaign of the Napoleonic Wars).

Thus Cornwallis had a problem, slowly lose North Carolina and then South Carolina and Georgia, or attack the supply base of the American Forces in Virginia. Cornwallis knew if he moved North, Nathanial Greene, Commander of the US Southern Forces would just watch him leave and retake the Carolinas and Georgia.

Thus Cornwallis, the most brilliant of the British Commanders during the Revolution, was in a box. If he stayed where he was he would lose the Carolinas, if he attacked he would lose the Carolinas. On the other hand, Cornwallis thought, once he had ravaged Virginia he could retake the Carolinas with Virginia as his base. The only problem was the French Fleet in Rhode Island. Would the French use it to help Washington or ship in to the Caribbean after the Hurricane season? The British Took Charleston for the Same reason the French were in Rhode Island, to keep their fleets out of the Caribbean during the Hurricane Season. Cornwallis was counting on the fact the French were more worried about the Sugar islands of the Caribbean than helping Washington. Unfortunate for Cornwallis, the French army Commander was able to convince the French Admiral to help Washington trap Cornwallis in VIrginia, thus lead to Cornwallis's surrender at Yorktown.

My point is that, like Cornwallis, Bush is in a box. Bush is slowly losing the War in Iraq, and sooner or later the losses will get to high Congress (Afraid of losing the next election). Congress can cut funding for the War in Iraq and order the Troops home just like Congress did in regards in Vietnam in about 1973). On the other hand if Bush attacks Iran, the Supply lines to the Rebels in Iraq would be cut (At least Bush thinks so, I have my doubts but that is another story). The best way to defeat Guerrillas is to cut their source of food, arms and Ammunition. In Bush's mind this will be done by Attacking Iran. I can see Bush transferring all Air operations to attacking Iran, leaving out forces in Afghanistan and Iraq without any air cover. The insurgents in both places will just raise up and attack forcing whatever US ground forces still in Baghdad to fight a defensive operation till the air operation over Iran is over. The problem here is I see the Shiite in Southern Iraq revolting in SUPPORT of Iran, cutting what is left of US supply lines to Baghdad (The Air operation against Iran will require the use of Air Transport as Tankers for the Air Operation, thus cutting even the Air transport of Supplies ot Baghdad).

Thus I have to say I fully foresee an US Attack on Iran. Such an attack will be stupidest Military act since Hitler kept sending German Troops into Stalingrad (Hitler kept sending troops in even after it was Clear taking Stalingrad would gain nothing). Like Stalingrad if the US attacks Iran, it will lead to a disaster. When Cornwallis left the Carolinas to attack Virginia Cornwallis knew he was giving up the Carolina and may come into danger by the French Fleet and Washington's Army, Bush and his Cabal do NOT even have that idea. Bush and the rest of his Cabal have convinced themselves that by Attacking Iran, Iraq will be solved.

What I see is a full scale Air Attack on Iran. The Shiite in Southern Iraq revolts forcing the British (Who hold that area) to withdraw or ask for American Support. American Forces will be sent south but than the Sunnis in Baghdad will escalate their attacks in Baghdad and force the fall or the American Withdraw from the Green Zone. Once out of Baghdad surviving US forces will head for Kuwait, Conceding all of Iraq north of Basra to the Sunni insurgents.

Now they are some questions (Like the French Fleet during Yorktown). Like the French at Yorktown (Who basically wanted to go to the West Indies), the Sunnis do not want the Shiites to win any war with the US. Thus it is possible that the Sunnis may CUT BACK they attacks upon some promise by the US that they will get to run IRaq after the Iran operation.

Another alternative is that the Turks seeing the US withdraw south, decides it is time to teach the Kurds a lesson and Invade Kurdistan. In fact the Israeli invasion of Lebanon may have been part of plan to establish a supply line from Beirut to Baghdad. With the Israelis holding Lebanon, the Christian Lebanese holding Beirut, the Turks holding Kurdistan and the US forces in Baghdad supplies via Beirut instead of via Basra and southern Iraq. Prue speculation, but the traditional invasion route into Iran has been via Syria not the Persian Gulf.

Thus if the US attacks IRan you have several situation that can occur. One of which is an Iranian attack on Saudi oil terminals, shutting them down and with them drop in Persian Gulf Oil Production. If I was Iran and was attack by the US the oil terminals of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would be my first two targets. The US military is depended on oil to fights, and by cutting world wide oil production you weaken the US military forces. This weakens Iran also, but the US more so.

Anyway back to my point, Bush and his Cabal are in a box, and they do NOT want to do what they should do, withdraw from Iraq, thus like Cornwallis in a similar situation, Bush will attack, for Bush is un-willing to admit defeat, and thus will convert defeat into disaster.

More about King's Mountain:
http://jrshelby.com/kimocowp/km.htm

More about The Cowpens:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cowpens
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Critters2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:26 PM
Response to Original message
3. The AEI should know
They're giving the orders.
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
6. If the Democrats take back congress, he will have much trouble with...
this scam.
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 06:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. He Won't Be President In 12~18 Months
John Conyers as Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.
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iamjoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 07:01 PM
Response to Original message
8. Just In Time
for the 2008 Presidential election campaigns to kick off

clever bastards.
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The Backlash Cometh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. "Right-wing Think Tank." That's how we got in this mess to begin with.
By listening to them.
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Nutmegger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 07:10 PM
Response to Original message
10. PNAC anyone?
:eyes:
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
11. Reuel Marc Gerecht is one scary dude. I saw him on an AEI thing on C-Span
about two years ago and posted here on DU about what he said. Many posters on that thread though he was a scary a dude as I did.

If he is saying Bush will do it...I'll take him at his word unless he's had a "Saul on the road to Damascus" incident and his eyes are blinded by the light and he's seen a "New Way" ...i'll figure what he says is what he knows to be true... :-(
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
13. Wasn't there a DUer who named some day in July as when it was going to

happen?
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Warren DeMontague Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
14. Attack Iran??? ........With WHAT?
His wife's creepy grin?

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Joe Bacon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-20-06 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. oh no, This is what we will use
:nuke:
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