Robert Fisk: As the 6am ceasefire takes effect... the real war begins

[scarletwoman]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/fisk/article1219037...

As the 6am ceasefire takes effect... the real war begins
Published: 14 August 2006

The real war in Lebanon begins today. The world may believe - and Israel may believe - that the UN ceasefire due to come into effect at 6am today will mark the beginning of the end of the latest dirty war in Lebanon after up to 1,000 Lebanese civilians and more than 30 Israeli civilians have been killed. But the reality is quite different and will suffer no such self-delusion: the Israeli army, reeling under the Hizbollah's onslaught of the past 24 hours, is now facing the harshest guerrilla war in its history. And it is a war they may well lose.

<snip>

Israel itself, according to reports from Washington and New York, had long planned its current campaign against Lebanon - provoked by Hizbollah's crossing of the Israeli frontier, its killing of three soldiers and seizure of two others on 12 July - but the Israelis appear to have taken no account of the guerrilla army's most obvious operational plan: that if they could endure days of air attacks, they would eventually force Israel's army to re-enter Lebanon on the ground and fight them on equal terms.

<snip>

At this fatal juncture in Middle East history - and no one should underestimate this moment's importance in the region - the Israeli army appears as impotent to protect its country as the Hizbollah clearly is to protect Lebanon.

But if the ceasefire collapses, as seems certain, neither the Israelis nor the Americans appear to have any plans to escape the consequences. The US saw this war as an opportunity to humble Hizbollah's Iranian and Syrian sponsors but already it seems as if the tables have been turned. The Israeli military appears to be efficient at destroying bridges, power stations, gas stations and apartment blocks - but signally inefficient in crushing the "terrorist" army they swore to liquidate.

(more at link)

sw

[radfringe]

1. But if the ceasefire collapses

But if the ceasefire collapses, as seems certain, neither the Israelis nor the Americans appear to have any plans to escape the consequences.

it'll "collapse" - GOPers need a war and fear too much to let something like a ceasefire to actually succeed. The probability of the cease fire collapsing will increase exponetially between not and (s)election day - keep your eye on the Dem v. GOPer polls. the worse the GOPers numbers the more likely the ceasefire will become open fire...

The stage is set with linking Hezbolla with Syria/Iran, we've already had a major terror alert (there will be a few more before election day) - they are ramping up the fear factor. Look for big photo-ops/speeches etc on or near September 11

[enough]

2. k&r

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Anyone any idea where Fisk gets his claims of Israeli military deaths from

He says:

In all, at least 39 - possibly 43 - Israeli soldiers have been killed in the past day as Hizbollah guerrillas, still launching missiles into Israel itself, have fought back against Israel's massive land invasion into Lebanon.

But compare that with Haaretz:

Seven Israel Defense Forces soldiers were killed in south Lebanon on Sunday, as troops and Hezbollah guerillas engaged in heavy fighting, hours before a United Nations cease-fire resolution was expected to go into effect.

Sunday's fatalities raise the number of Israelis killed in the war to 154, 115 of them soldiers and 39 of them civilians.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/750327.html

Even adding in the 24 killed on Saturday that Haaretz refers to in that piece, you can't get to 39, let alone 43 (and that 24 fits with the "19 soldiers killed and five missing and feared dead" on Saturday that The Independent reports itself. I wouldn't want to think Fisk is using unreliable figures.

[scarletwoman]

8. I have no idea where Fisk is getting his numbers. He's in Beruit,

so it seems probable that he is monitoring both Lebanese and Israeli media. Since Mr. Fisk is not out in the battlefield himself, he would obviously have to rely on other sources for casualty reports.

For all we know, Israel might be lowballing its KIA numbers in its initial reports for obvious domestic reasons -- Israelis are definitely not happy with the overall execution of this military action. Obviously, Hizbullah would have an interest in reporting higher numbers. It really all depends on what sources were available to Fisk at the time he wrote his piece -- he may simply have been given bad information at that point.

This particular article was filed sometime late Sunday night/early Monday morning, Lebanon time. Perhaps corrected casually figures did not become available until later in the morning, after his piece was published.

I imagine that before too long, Mr. Fisk will publish another commentary from Lebanon, which may very well include more casualty statistics. I'll watch for it and keep an eye out for possible discrepancies.

sw

[jayfish]

4. Amazing, What Good Anti-Tank Weaponry...

can do for a fighting force. It's a good thing the folks trying to throw off the occupiers in Iraq haven't had any.

Jay

[bigtree]

5. if you're not following Fisk you can't know Lebanon

[furman]

6. If you're following Fisk you're not getting an unbiased opinion.

[bigtree]

7. but I can appreciate that bias as he is right there in Lebanon

who doesn't write with bias?

[mom cat]

9. Victory has a thousand fathers, Defeat has none. So let the

blanes begin!

[Disturbed]

10. "fight them on equal terms.'?

How equal is that? The Israeli Forces have a whole lot of tanks, armed personnel carriers and other types of weapons that Hezbullah does not have. Also, what are the numbers of soldiers on each side

[theanarch]

11. being biased does not necessarily mean one is...

unobjective or deliberately spinning. As for sources, over the years (decades?) i've found that the other side's propaganda is generally more accurate than ours...they have less reason to lie, for one thing...that usually happens when the truth is so ugly (e.g. why lie when the truth serves you better, or at least adequately enough?). Fisk is absolutely right about Israel losing this war (of choice) big-time; they've done more to legitimize Hezbollah (at least to the Lebanese) by this war than if they hadn't launched it. Most dangerous for Israel is that the IDF has lost its aura of invincibility, professionalism and competence. Just like the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, it's one thing to pulverize a country from the air; it's quite another to actually control the ground with grunts on foot.