CNN: Orders for new homes plunge...worst oversupply slump in 40 years...

[Human Torch]

Builder: Oversupply slump worst in 40 years
Toll Brothers slashes outlook on new homes as orders plunge and revenue misses forecasts.
August 9 2006: 4:15 PM EDT

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/09/news/companies/toll_bro...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Homebuilder Toll Brothers said the current slump in residential construction is unlike any it has seen in 40 years as it became the latest to warn of a glut in new homes for sale and a slowdown in the closely watched real estate market.

The builder of luxury homes also reported weaker than expected preliminary results for the just completed quarter and cut its outlook for the homes it will sell in the current period. Toll Brothers (Charts) shares fell 4 percent in premarket trading.

The housing and homebuilding markets have helped drive the national economy during the past few years. Any downturns in these critical sectors could add to the problems of an already unsteady situation.

In a statement, company chairman Robert Toll warned there is a glut of supply of homes for sale in the market, as the building boom of recent years seems to be turning into a bust.

[TomInTib]

1. So, take this, Bobby Jack Perry. And shove it up your everlovin' ass

Bobby Jack Perry (Perry Homes, Houston), my ex's cousin and georgies single biggest contributor.

See you in the soup line, asshole.

Jesus (you know that guy, Bobby Jack) Christmas.

[Atman]

2. YES! I've been renting for six years. I've been waiting for this.

The bargains are a'comin. Sorry to all you people who paid $350,000 for a raised ranch, but...what were you thinking? Unless you were flipping homes every few months, no one had any business thinking the insanity of housing prices would continue. Common sense, people. The speculators and the rich drove the prices up and the rest got taken along for a ride. Many people are going to get hurt, and that is terribly unfortunate. But dear God, it's not as if you couldn't see it coming from miles away!

[Human Torch]

4. Also check out this Newsweek article I posted yesterday:

Newsweek: Adjustable mortgages + home equity loans = foreclosures

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[wicket]

33. Some of my friends took out one of those no-down ARM a few months ago

We tried to talk them out of it but they wanted that condo so badly so they did it any way. Not that I'm one to talk, still being a renter and all, but I'd rather wait to be able to afford a place than to take out a highly risky mortgage and be sunk.

[soothsayer]

6. Jeez, I sure do hope prices start falling for the same reason.

Folks say they won't, but I'm hoping anyway. It's just ridiculous.

[Human Torch]

12. The "American Dream" is not $500 K for a 900 square foot "fix-er upper"

I have a friend who's a realtor. It's a challenge, believe me. When I talk to him about the fact that OLD 1000-or-less-square-foot "single family" homes in Silicon Valley sell for half a million (or more), he replies "that's the market."

He regularly sells 1 bedroom condos for $400K and more. He sells homes in neighborhoods that are "on their way back" (translation: The King & Story Road and Capitol-McKee areas of San Jose, gang and drive-by central) for obscene amounts. In Palo Alto (an "old money" town) it is not unusual for a two bedroom CONDO to sell for $750K and up (he just sold one belonging to a mutual acquaintance for that amount).

It's beyond insane.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

8. Yeah....Think Robert Toll Saw It Coming From Miles Away?

Sounds like he is shocked and surprised. The sad thing, is it's ASSSHOLES like him, who contributed to this whole catastrophe that's about to unfold. And he's got his high salary and stock options, and will someday take his money and run, while everything comes crashing down.

[MadHound]

45. Yes, Toll Bros. did see this coming

Early this year, January or Febuary, Toll Bros. did a massive sell off of their own stock. They didn't do that for shits and grins, they saw the writing on the wall and decided to get out and divest while the getting was good.

[Atman]

23. I remember last time "things were bad" in the housing market

(Gosh, wasn't that under the GOP, too?) In Springfield, MA when the market turned south last time, if you were willing to take a chance you could purchase a 12 room victorian home for $35,000. This wasn't when I was a child, this was just during the last housing bust. A LOT of people did, and wound up renovating entire neighborhoods as a result, and those homes are worth fortunes now. Or, they were up until recently. But the point was, as with the stock market, one man's bust is another man's opportunity. I do genuinely feel badly for people who are going to lose their homes as a result of this, but sheesh...a little as a year ago in little CT town you couldn't get a 2 bedroom Cape Cod style starter home for less than $300,000. What the hell kind of madness is that? How could people have really thought a house like that would keep building equity forever?

[leftchick]

25. I have no pity for my freeper-in-laws

they bought a mc'mansion in a gated community in Florida at the peak price two years ago. I am waiting to see what happens there.

[alcibiades_mystery]

39. Yup, me too

We don't really plan to buy until next year, but I won't mind undercutting some dimbulb who paid twice the worth of a starter on an idiotic ARM, when they really didn't have the money to buy a home - much less THAT home - at all. Damn, kid. Capitalism hurts, don't it? They barely have a stitch of equity, and we've been living cheap and saving big. All the clowns that told me I was dumb because I wasn't getting equity...I'm guessing my liquid money in the bank outstrips their equity on those ridiculous mortgages nicely. Not too worried...

[MissB]

47. Yeah, I don't get the denial

The signs have been there for the last couple of years, it seems.

Best of luck on your search for a house.

[meldroc]

63. Same here. Sucks for a lot of people, but good for me...

I'm currently in the process of paying off debts and saving up a downpayment for my first home, and I estimate I'll be ready to pull the trigger in two years, assuming I remain gainfully employed and can keep saving at my current rate.

Yes, a lot of people will get burned, but will I exploit a housing crash to my advantage to get a nice home for cheap? Hell yes!

[earth mom]

65. You know, it could crash a lot worse than this and people could be losing

their jobs AND THEIR HOMES. It could be you or family or friends. I'm not happy to see this. Not at all. I feel sorry for people who will be screwed by this. (well except for the greedy home flippers and speculators)

[progressivebydesign]

70. Thanks... I'm sure people who are losing everything appreciate you..

sheesh. self centered much?

[WCGreen]

3. The builders here in Northeast Ohio have imposed a

de facto moratorium on new Mc Mansions until the glut is sated...

[OzarkDem]

15. Our mayor was complaining

that the $800,000 McMansions are selling for $600,000 now.

[WCGreen]

17. What are you doing up so late...

I had a taste for a Peanut Butter sangwich...

[upi402]

5. He thinks it could last 2 years before coming back n/t

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

7. I am sorry to say...

That there are some whose ruination I will find vastly entertaining. Vastly.

[tularetom]

9. Out here in the Central Valley of CA

they're plunking these McMansions down on what farmland is left and selling them at California prices to buyers making Appalachia wages. Fuckin banks are gonna own 'em all in a couple years and that isn't a good sign. Banks do not want to be in the real estate bidness.

[Bozita]

10. Keep moving! Nothing to see here. C'mon, keep movin'!

The economy?

Oh.

[ReadTomPaine]

11. And the bubble just continues to grow... n/t

[azurnoir]

13. Thinner and thinner and thinner..................n/t

[Dr.Phool]

16. I think the bubble is bursting.

Four years ago, when I moved to the Tampa Bay area (Pasco County) I told people in Ohio how cheap real estate was down here. My home has doubled in value since then. Houses in my neighborhood sold days after they went on the market.

Not anymore. They're sitting for months now.

[recoveringrepublican]

20. I hear you, I live in Tarpon Springs, moved here from MN

I moved here in 1998. I was amazed at how cheap it was to live here. I always wanted to moved back to MN, but knew we couldn't afford it at the time. We bought our house for 70K in 2000, it is now valued at over 250K! If it wasn't for my hubby's family we would have sold and bought a house outright in the boonies in MN or ND. I hope the prices come down as was just reading that the MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD income down here is a little over $40K. My family makes much more than that and no way would we buy a home for over $150,000. Renting is getting harder and harder here in pinellas. Apts going condo, mobile home residents either being evicted or forced to find tens of millions of dollars to buy the land under their homes, even a small motel in Tarpon is selling it's rooms as "studios" for $119K. I have a friend who works for a non-profit that helps people find affordable housing, he no longer can afford to rent in the area (hell probably not even in a 300 mile radius). I won't even get into the traffic situation.

After watching all this though, I think we will stick it out here. We have a 15 year fixed rate and are able to put a little more toward the principle every month. After that's paid off I never want a bank owning my home, or having to worry about finding a place we can afford and still be able to eat.

[DemonFighterLives]

38. Here in MN

We still have a few places left in the boonies.

My wife and I bought one in Mid-MN with 40 acres and a small beat up house.
The bubble is bursting though and we may wait a few years to sell or main house.
Both homes were great deals and have climbed in value.

I don't know where all the trusses are going, but my friend is working overtime right now at a truss plant. They are still going gangbusters.

[AngryAmish]

74. They still have trusses?

I thought most every hernia was operated on...

[FooFootheSnoo]

52. I hail from the Tampa area too

We bought our home for $72 back in '99. Houses in my neighborhood were selling for $180 up until recently. I even heard of one person who bought for $195!! These are tiny, no-frills starter homes that were built in the mid-80's. However, my neighbor put her house on the market over a month ago at $180 and it's still empty.

[Cleita]

14. Tsk, tsk, too many houses and we have homeless and

families living in crowded trailers. Something is really wrong here.

[midnight]

43. There is something wrong.

Building industry should try and work out a deal to make sure every vet that is coming home, has a home!

[DianaForRussFeingold]

71. Great Idea!

[Gormy Cuss]

69. Yes, and we both have a good idea what it is.

I'd love to have inclusionary zoning with requirements for affordable housing as part of every new development or redevelopment within 30 miles of a city center.

I also believe that trailer parks are a better use of land than a handful of McMansions.

[mad-mommy]

18. the market here

I have said this before, and I'll say it again...the homes just keep going up here, and they're selling. I have noticed some still on the market for a few months, but they'll go. We just happen to have a large influx of city folks sellling their city homes, and then buying here for a fraction of the price. Most working here, can't afford anything here now. There were some local folks, as well as the incomers, that overpaid in bidding wars. How can that ever make sense? And the banks that gave them these homes, well let's just say, they'll be getting them right back should any of the overpayers lose their job, health, or have to relocate. Don't you feel that when people overpay, give in, continue to fill up their hummer, that they are just making it hard on everyone else? I guess if they can do it, they don't think about that?

ps, there is new home construction everywhere you look here.

[conflictgirl]

19. But I thought Bush keeps telling us the economy is good?

I can tell the housing market is doing bad everywhere. My sister-in-law in the Dallas area has had her house on the market for four months and counting, and still hasn't had any buyers. And she doesn't even have a McMansion, just a fairly moderately priced older family home. And around here, Michigan in general has a crappy economy but in the neighborhood where I own my house, the real estate market has done pretty well as compared to other nearby areas. One of our neighbors down the street has had their house on the market since late April, and hasn't even had many people coming to view it. It's a four-bedroom, which is pretty unusual around here, at a fair price and seems to be in good condition. Even two years ago when we were house shopping, four-bedroom houses in this area were always sold within a month or so. I'm not planning to sell our house, but if my husband's unemployment stretches on too long it might become necessary. I'm watching the real estate market in my neighborhood in case that has to happen, and things don't look good. I feel bad for the people who weren't even over their heads with ridiculously huge houses and still have to move because they can't afford their house anymore, and just can't sell. There are going to be a whole lot more people in that boat soon, I think.

[Rosemary2205]

21. Wrong side of the tracks in Atlanta is selling good.

the houses are sitting on the market a couple of weeks longer than they did 5 years ago but the sales and building are still going pretty good.

[SoCalDem]

22. Smoke & Mirrors.. that's our wonderful economy

and lies & fables..

like the big lie that a person earning $40K "deserves" a half-million dollar home (that when new, sold for under 10k)..

I actually heard a "money honey" on CNBC say that a person making $40K "really shouldn't expect to buy a house over...say... $400K"......

My jaw dropped....

[The Anti-Neo Con]

29. How much home someone SHOULD buy...

Personally, I'd NEVER buy a home that cost more than 3 times my annual salary...just to be on the safe side. You could buy one 4 times your annual salary if you want to go out on a limb.

A lot of people getting into trouble with foreclosures are ones who went and bought a home that cost 5X or more than their annual salaries. Problem is that with all the easy credit that went around, loan officers were all too eager to say "Don't worry, you can swing it!"

[RebelOne]

24. I don't know, but in my neighborhood in No. Georgia,

they are building plenty of luxury home subdivisions. Homes are $350,000 and up.

[Atman]

28. A lot of stuff that was already in the pipeline is still going forward

But most new development has slowed to a crawl. In fact, when they talk about "new housing starts" they refer to building permits issued, not actual housing construction. So even though you may have lots of "new houses" being built, statistically they're probably several months old already.

[TahitiNut]

30. Residential construction always overshoots a slump

Ever has it been and ever shall it be. In my 63 years on this planet, I've NEVER seen a housing slump where the builders didn't take 6-9 months to appear to get the news. They invest so much of their time, money, and effort in land improvements, permits, materials acquisition, financing, hiring, business planning, etc. that the new builds just keep arising while the market is ending a binge phase and going inot a purge phase.

Despite the abundance of information and the self-congratulatory claims of 'business acumen' and expertise, most such businesses operate like insensate dinosaurs, only realizing their tail is being eaten by the time their head is being swallowed.

[DemonFighterLives]

40. So very true

and prophetic as well.

[WinkyDink]

26. But Richard and Ginger have to Flip This House!

Save my reality TV, people!

Seriously: I live in the eastern part of PA that borders Jersey. People from there are and have been for a decade moving here for the CHEAPER homes....I'm still talking $350K+. A little further north and it's New Yorkers crossing over to the Poconos.
That latter trend might slow a bit as the big news story yesterday was how Crips and Bloods are taking over gated communities.

[smoogatz]

46. Crips and bloods are taking over gated communities?

Cool. How?

[mad-mommy]

50. I read all about that in the paper....

Supposed gang activity here where I live, in NE PA. The market really sucks here, if you work here or near here and want to live here.

[leftchick]

27. So I had to look at the McMansions Toll Brothers builds

yikes that is God awful....



Chapell Hill, NC 5200 sq ft of tackiness.

[TahitiNut]

31. It's missing the lawn jockeys.

What's with the assholes who buy this crap? Why do they have the obsession with the faux pillars? The circular drive and the pillars seem to hearken back to cotillions and antebellum dances at Tara, with the "darkies" stepping and fetching and strumming on their old banjos.



I guess it's just me, but I see this kind of crap and can't help think it's redolent of some yearning for racism run amok and servitude rampant.

[leftchick]

32. lol!

indeed.

[CottonBear]

35. This style is hugely popular in the Southeast.

Newly built and very tacky, look alike McMansions abound in the mostly white, upper middle class county where I work. Builders can't throw together these crappy $400,000 and up houses fast enough. Ironically, $250,000 range houses are not selling well. Keep in mind that in northeast, Georgia $250,000 will buy you a very nice and large home on a large lot.

I think that the super-expensive tacky McMansion owners are living on credit. It costs a fortune in utility bills, taxes, insurance, professional lawn maintenance fees, and homeowners association fees to maintain these houses. They are all driving new SUVs and luxury sedans which gulp gas. They have to keep up with the Joneses. Maybe they lease the cars. They have 2 or 3 kids. The wife stays home.

I have no idea how there are so many people living in the county that have super high paying jobs. They must commute 2 hours to Atlanta because I don't think the local metro area has that many new high paying jobs. The local university professors, doctors, dentists, accountants, high income small business owners, lawyers and developers already had very nice homes in the city and surrounding counties. I know that there is some job growth here but it is mostly in service areas or university-IT related.

[TahitiNut]

36. There're plenty of these monstrosities in the recently suburbanized

... periphery of the Detroit area, particularly in the northern reaches of Oakland and Macomb counties. "White flight" is running amok unabated, imho. Even smaller houses emulate the antebellum style, sometimes with a portico that dwarfs the rest of the house. Ugly. Butt-ugly.

[Tesha]

64. This cancer of a style has spread everywhere.

It's what the over-builders are building here in New
hampshire as well; this old place is starting to look
like Dallas with pine trees.

Tesha

[Hoping4Change]

72. "Dallas with pines trees" LOLOLOL

If I don't laugh I'll cry....I share your disgust.

[marions ghost]

42. they are building some of this same crap

not far from where I live. Delusions of Grandeur. Hideous.

[lectrobyte]

51. At least that looks like somewhat of a nice sized lot. In North Raleigh

they are plopping those down on .33 acre. A gate with no fence? check. Circular drive taking up the whole front yard? ditto. Two story foyer with big-ass chandelier. You know it!

[leftchick]

53. I used to line in N Raleigh

off of falls of the neuse in a lovely older neighborhood on an acre lot. We have since moved and downsized dramatically. I do know the neighborhoods you are refering to. There is one that was going up right in back of the Harris Teeter on FOTN when we moved..

[lectrobyte]

60. That's my dream, to move out of this place, but my job keeps me

in this area for now. Wake County is basically turning into this now:

http://www.hasentree.com

[leftchick]

75. looks like stepford

[FooFootheSnoo]

56. gads, that's ugly!!

[pitohui]

62. well i'd take it

what's wrong w. it? yeah, i used to want trees around my house too but having my house smashed up twice in a coupld years takes the glamor out of trees real quick, let me tell you

[Hoping4Change]

73. Bigger homes = more fuel required for AC and heating

Great article (orginally from Slate) about the environmental consequences of the increased size of homes.



"From 1991 to 2005, the median lot size of single-family houses sold in the United States shrank by 9 per cent, but the median indoor area increased by 18 per cent. If you can't stand the heat, go hide in your kitchen."




http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename...

[Robb]

34. We had an interesting piece in the paper here

...we're close to Telluride, so any slump is going to be delayed because of that ungodly-money market.

But we're seeing more people renting than ever. Folks that bought investment houses in the last ten years are struggling to find people willing to pay rent to cover the investment mortgage -- wasn't a big deal when it was $500-700, but now it's more like $1,200+ and the bath has begun.

With higher interest rates and inflated costs, for the first time ever it actually makes more sense in many markets to be renting, because the rental market is a renter's market.

[salitine]

37. Well, if they made houses that work "off the grid" they might have

something worth buying. Who wants a friggin leaky drafty expensive home that simply WON'T WORK without the power company leash? People are looking for POWER AND FUEL INDEPENDANT HOMES!!!

[DemonFighterLives]

41. Good aswer.

Welcome to DU!

[Atman]

44. Have you heard about the Toyota that will power your house?

Seriously...Toyota is developing a hybrid car/house combo. You pull the car into the garage at the end of the day and plug it in. The power generated and stored by the car during your daily driving is then used to power the house, or parts of it, for x number of hours. In the morning, you "recharge" your power source simply by driving to work.

[FooFootheSnoo]

55. Now THAT might be worth $400,000!!

depending on how long the car lasts!!

[stubtoe]

58. Hear, hear!

Let's hope that Off The Grid homes will be the next popular "thing" in housing, once this ridiculous McMansion phase dies out.

Imagine, housing that makes sense! What a concept!

[Xenotime]

48. More evidence that the economy is in the tank.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

49. This means the cost of building material should be going down, right?

Just asking because I need a new laundry room and I've been waiting patiently.

[Tesha]

66. Nahhh, there'll be another hurricane or typhoon or...

> This means the cost of building material should be going down, right?
>
> Just asking because I need a new laundry room and I've been waiting patiently.

Nahhh, there'll be another hurricane or typhoon or giant
container ship loaded with gypsum sinking somewhere to
ensure that the costs of those 2x4s stays as high as ever.
And hey, the trucks that deliver that stuff need diesel,
dontchaknow?

Tesha

[warrens]

54. To make things worse

Builders all over the country have found ways around requirements to build affordable housing, including rental properties, to balance the boom in McMansions. It isn't like these monsters are going to come way down in price; you're not going to suddenly see 8 bedroom houses with vaulted ceilings selling for $100K. There's really no fallback; the people who need housing still can't afford it. Sometimes, letting the market decide doesn't work out, and this is one of those times.

[Tesha]

67. (Allegedly-)free markets generally don't work out well for the poor. (NT)

[FooFootheSnoo]

57. I'm a little worried

I'd like to see housing prices become affordable again. On the other hand, hubby works for a contractor and I don't want him to be out of a job. I think he'd be one of the last to go at his company. He told me the other day that an old friend of his that drives a truck delivering trusses (I think he said trusses) has already been laid off because no one is ordering any. I'll keep my figners crossed through this.

[izzybeans]

59. Good. Homebuilders flooded the housing market here. They have actually

deflated the price of older homes. I'm not sure how much more farmland we can spare for the patchwork homebuilder. Maybe the Toll Brothers should look into this whole remodeling thing. I hear there they built some houses a few years back as well.

[pitohui]

61. what are they smoking?

sure as hell no oversupply of homes within hundreds of square miles of where i'm sitting

the gulf coast is badly in need of homes, hell, mississippi is badly in need of affordable homes at least as far north as jackson, i know, i've tried to buy one...without one damn bit of luck

true, everybody can't build a home in san diego but there are plenty of places where people are living in trailers and tents for lack of homes

this country is badly in need of housing!

[Tesha]

68. Theyre not interested in building housing for poor people.

(Yes, I *KNOW* I'm over-generalizing, but I'll bet you
need a lot more housing for people who can't afford
gated McMansions than for people who can.)

Tesha