I found this interesting and wonder if '06 will be shades of 1970. Sen. Tom Dodd (Sen. Chris Dodd's father) was considered a conservative democrat and supporter of the Vietnam war. He was elected in '56 defeating non other than Prescott Bush. He was re-elected during the Johnson Landslide of 1964, but in 1970 he when he was seeking a third term he was challenged on the left by Rev. Joe Duffey who was a strong anti-war democrat and supporter of Eugene McCarthy in '68.
Dodd had some health problems and wasn't sure he was going to run so he dropped out of the Democratic primary and later re-entered the race as an Independent. Rev. Duffey won the Democratic nomination. The GOP nominee was non other than Lowell Weiker.
So we had a three way race in '70: Democratic nominee Duffey, GOP nominee Weiker and Independent incumbent Senator Tom Dodd (who up to that time was a Democrat).
On election night Weiker ended up winning over Duffey by 90,000 votes while Dodd, the incumbent and the Independent, ran third with over 250,000 votes--he was largely blamed for Duffey's loss by splitting the Democratic vote.
Fortunately, Weicker turned out to be a liberal republican, and more liberal than Dodd was.
Could this happen again in '06 with Joementum running as an Independent? split the Democrats and cause the Democratic nominee Lamont to lose? I don't think so. For one thing, the GOP nominee this year is not nearly as strong as Weicker was--polls show he is polling about 13% in a three way race. But could enough Republicans and die hard Joe Democrats be enough to give Joe a plurality and win? that would be the question.
This is about that 1970 Senate race:
http://connecticutlocalpolitics.blogspot.com/2006/03/senate-1970-threading-needle.html