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Buttercup McToots Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-03-06 05:10 PM
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Playing With Fire!
Full article:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini08...

DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
The July Newsletter
Playing With Fire!
Enrico Orlandini
3 Aug, 2006

snip>

As tragic as the plight of Peru sounds, it is nothing compared to what is going on in the Middle East. For almost a year I have been attributing the rise in gold to the fact that the yellow metal senses some future event of really tragic proportions. I also said that I didn't have any idea as to what it could be related to. I am sorry to say that is no longer the case. Supply and demand factors aside, gold has focused its attention squarely on the Middle East conflict, an event orchestrated in large part by some insane policy implemented by the present US administration and supported by Israel. Some feel that it's really Israel that's calling the shots, but it doesn't matter1. What matters is the course they're on and the results they'll produce. At the present moment Israel is busy laying waste to Lebanon and it is doing so in such a fashion as to provoke and attack from one or more of its Arab neighbors, specifically Iran with help from Syria. An Iranian attack would be "just cause" for US military intervention, and since they lack the manpower for such an action, it would mean the US would probably play their nuclear card. Think about this for a minute. The US is the first country to develop a nuclear weapon, the first and only country to use such a weapon, and now sixty-one years later they seem to want to do it again. The justification is that Iran possesses, or is on the verge of possessing, weapons of mass destruction. Does that sound familiar? Remember Colin Powell showing the world all the indisputable proof that Iraq possessed such weapons? We never found any did we? I have news for you; you won't find any this time around either.

Just for a moment, I want to turn this argument around and suppose that Iran actually possesses nuclear weapons. Given their religious beliefs, culture, and history just how do you think they'll react? I'm not an expert on the Middle East, but I think I can figure it out by myself. If they've got it, they'll use it! Who do you think they'll direct their rage against? Why Israel of course! Do you have any idea what kind of mess this is going to create? There will be no winners here; only those who go down in flames. Both sides are going to risk everything, they are going to lose everything and what is worse, both sides are going to inflict tremendous suffering on the rest of the world.

Why would anyone want to go down such a dangerous road? Well, for the US a lot of it has to do with oil whereas for Israel it would be a chance to settle some old scores once and for all. I have no idea who threw the first stone in the Middle East some three thousand years ago, but if George Jr. is dumb enough to start dropping nuclear ordinance on the Arabs, and I think he is, you will be fighting the next war throwing stones from your respective caves2. Anyone who thinks China and Russia will sit quietly by while the US goes about the confiscation of +/- 50% of the world's oil is more than a few bricks shy of a full load. So far they have been content to let America kill innocent men, women, and children in Iraq and Afghanistan, all in the name of democracy, because they know full well it's a war we can't win. Russia can write volumes about going down to defeat in Afghanistan. The implementation of nuclear weapons changes all that, even low grade nuclear weapons, as the Arab nations would be powerless to fight back. At least over the sort run. Over the run long the United States would reap what it sows as the Al Qaeda would find some way to explode a nuclear weapon on American soil. It's worth remember that throughout the course of human history, whenever a bully has started throwing stones, someone eventually comes along with a bigger stone. The process of retribution often takes years, or even decades, but it inevitably happens. Mr. Bush will find that out the hard way.

For those of you who feel safe living in your log cabins nestled in the mountains of Montana, complete with solar power, a ten acre vegetable garden, your own well, and a satellite dish, I have one thing to say: think again! Don't be so naive as to believe you can simply explode a few nuclear bombs on the other side of the world and go on with your life as if nothing happened. More years ago than I care to admit, I took a biology course from a professor who was a bit of a rebel. In the middle of the semester, he dedicated a week's worth or lectures to a topic most people in today's world know nothing about, nuclear winter. It surprised me to learn that it was only necessary to explode half a dozen nuclear bombs on our globe to seriously alter for many decades the earth's weather patterns. In short, you would see snow at the Equator during the summer months and temperatures would hit freezing. I live just below the Equator in a city of ten million people where half the houses don't have roofs (it rains once every twenty years in Lima so most feel a roof is a luxury they can live without). Maybe 1% of the houses have a heating system. Nuclear winter would probably kill half the people in Lima within a week.



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