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Don't panic about this "Syrian army raises readiness" stuff.

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Taxloss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 05:31 PM
Original message
Don't panic about this "Syrian army raises readiness" stuff.
Or, indeed, similar noises from Iran. Ignore it.

These announcements are primarily for domestic consumption, and they're as bogus as Bushco's "terror alerts". Assad's a shrewd fellow, a populist, and is obviously keen to be seen to be "doing something" about Israel, because that's what the vast majority of the Syrian public want - and the more aggressive the better. However, Syria will not attack unless Israel attacks - and Israel has enough of its plate as the Lebanon situation has gone so horribly wrong.

Why won't Israel attack? Because the present situation suits Syria down to the ground. Assad gets to look tough, Syria can fight Israel by proxy without getting its hands dirty (if you think Damascus cares about Lebanese civilians any more than Tel Aviv, you're sadly wrong), and Israel's international profile suffers horribly by the day, by the hour. Assad is sitting pretty on this mess.

Of course, I might be wrong. I sincerely hope not, for the obvious reasons. But there are concrete steps Syria could take to escalate the situation that it is not taking - such as calling up reservists. It's worth keeping an eye out for that, and ignoring the rhetoric.
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pinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. I agree. The rhetoric is aimed for domestic play. And further
play in the Arab world. I saw Mubarak's statements today and the couple of statements coming out of the Iraqi Parliament recently. All seem to be primarily positioning statements in the war of words, more than anything else, imho.

Real time troop movements would be an alarm, big time. But this seems SOP for the Middle East.
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
2. I think you are wrong...This whole this has been planned for years..
including Israel's part...I think we will attack Iran and Syria...but I sure hope you are right...p.s. Blair has had a big part in this.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. So the US controls Hezbollah, Syria and Iran?
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Lefty48197 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. Same reason they light up the sky with tracer rounds
every time the air raid sirens go off. The attacking jets are already on their way home, but the tracer rounds work to convince the citizens that they are actually doing something.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
5. I agree with you n/t
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Reckon Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-31-06 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
6. I think
... Israel will come up with some pretext to strike Syria which will bring Iran into the war. Then the Bu$h Admin will say it has a legit reason to widen the war. COMING SOON!

But first Israel will weaken them all they can.
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