ANALYSIS: Hezbollah is still showing no signs of breaking

[spindrifter]

By Amos Harel

It was a bad news day. In the morning, Israeli forces in Lebanon clashed with Hezbollah near Avivim. Two soldiers were killed. In the afternoon, Hezbollah began to shell the entire northern region heavily. Scores of Katyusha rockets were fired and two children from Nazareth were killed. For eight days, the Israel Defense Forces has been pounding Lebanon and dropping thousands of tons of bombs on it, yet Hezbollah remains the same intransigent rival as before. It is showing no signs of breaking.
<snip>

The air force's first assault last week, aimed at long-range rockets in central Lebanon, caused considerable damage. Now the army is conducting a series of small ground operations to trace launchers in the thicket close to the border. The soldiers in the Maroun Ras area found a compound in a forest, complete with weapons bunkers, shelters and launchers that had been prepared a long time in advance. From here, rockets were launched at Safed, Ma'alot and the Miron Air Force base. The Hezbollah group hiding there surprised the IDF force and in the close-range fire exchange, two Israeli soldiers and two Hezbollah members were killed.

This incident illustrates three things. First, that like the IDF, Hezbollah too has been preparing for this confrontation for six years; second, that not everything can be done from the air. Third, that such a ground operation involves quite a few casualties and the government will have to consider this fact if it decides on a more massive invasion in the future.

<snip>

European diplomats believe Israel has maneuvered itself into a trap. It cannot stop the operation without having real political achievements to show its public, but prolonged fighting will seriously try its citizens' fortitude and will not guarantee the expected achievements.

<more>

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/740649.html

[CuteNFuzzy]

1. Hizballah isn't going to break

when all you're doing is bombing the civilians

[DaveinMD]

2. that isn't

all Israel is doing.

[CuteNFuzzy]

3. what else are they doing?

[The Magistrate]

16. The Predominant Israeli Action, Sir

Is artillery fire across the border at points suspected of being caches of rockets, prepared firing points for their launching, or prepared defensive points for Hezbollah fighters. There are no cameras in the southern reaches of Lebanon, nor foreign correspondents, and so it does not feature much in the reported events. But it is where most of the actual fire is concentrated.

Israeli activities in the rest of Lebanon are aimed at interdicting communications, and destroying facilities of Hezbollah, particularly in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where they are quite common. There are definite signs that their targetting intelligence is not as good as it could be in some of these strikes.

[CuteNFuzzy]

21. "targetting intelligence is not as good as it could be"

Impressive.

[The Magistrate]

25. The Point Remains, Sir

The planes are not just flying over the city and dropping bombs at random: the intention is to hit targets viewed as having military value in a campaign to neutralize Hezbollah. Certainly if the intelligence on which the targeting is based is poor, the effect may be similar, but the intent still remains other. All military bodies, of course, are always convinced their intelligence is spot-on accurate, whatever it might actually be....

[CuteNFuzzy]

34. So you are saying Israel has clean hands?

[blonndee]

38. Sorry, thought you were responding to me. delete

[The Magistrate]

39. That, Sir, Would Depend On Your Definition Of 'Clean Hands'

They are probably doing their best to strike targets of military utility to them. Piles of dead non-combatants gain them nothing, and do their efforts real damage, so there is no good reason to suppose their intention is to produce them. In what they are attempting to do, however, namely neutralize an irregular armed body, non-combatant deaths are certain to occur.

[HamdenRice]

78. There is evidence of another geo political aim, however

It seems that Israel is also targetting Lebanese infrastructure and Army in order to "punish" Lebanon into deciding to eliminate Hezbollah itself. But they are falling into the same trap they fell into when the used this tactic on the Palestinian authority -- namely destroying the security services whose cooperation is the key to eliminating the threat. It didn't work with the Palestinian authority and it won't work with Lebanon. This was the predominate view of the speakers at the Arab American Institute conference broadcast over CSPAN yesterday.

[The Magistrate]

85. That Is A Sound Analysis, Sir

Viewed in the abstract, the government of Lebanon not only should quash Hezbollah, but is obliged to, not only from basic defining characteristics of what constitutes a state, but by United Nations directive. That it was likely incapable of this in the preceding year is, however, an unfortunate fact of the situation. It is my view as well that actions degrading further the capabilities of the Lebanese government are likely to prove counter-productive, and detrimental to Israel in the long run. All parties to this conflict often seem to indulge in behavior reminiscent of a person so exasperated and frustrated and enraged that they lash out in manners that, however much they may briefly relieve emotional strain, not only do not, but cannot, achieve anything constructive, even from their own points of view, and often leave them in worse, more exasperating, frustrating and enraging circumstances than they were in before.

Once the Wise General wrote: "There is no instance in history of a state benefiting by prolonged warfare."

[LSK]

17. destroying powerplants, airports, bridges, etc etc etc

[Ravenseye]

80. factories, industrial plants, manufacturing plants, businesses, etc, etc e

[Redstone]

4. What heroes they are! They'll keep firing unguided rockets into cities,

no matter what!

Let's all support the Freedom Fighters!

Redstone

[Cameron27]

5. There you go !!

Speaking the truth...good for you, and I agree.

[Redstone]

6. You're one of the few.

Redstone

[Onetothehead]

7. You gotta kill them all or it will start again

The next step is ground forces within 1week after their done
bombing the key targets, They are not targeting civilians as
one poster said. Casualties of war ,it happens

[CuteNFuzzy]

8. "not targeting civilians"

Then how do you explain 300 civilians dead

[Onetothehead]

11. Have you ever been in a war

If your answer is no , then I can understand your question.
If you have been then you already know the answer to your
question .

[CuteNFuzzy]

12. Sorry, how do you explain 300 dead civilians

if civilians are not being targeted

[Solo_in_MD]

40. Considering the amount of ordinance that is being used, 300

is a surprisingly LOW number. if you have watched any of the video, there is some serious firepower being used. Leafleting and careful targeting is keeping the number down.

Hezbollah put their munitions and launching sites in populated areas, esp southern Beirut. They put the population at risk as human shields in direct violation of the Geneva Convention. Watch the video at CNN, see the secondaries for yourself...clearly some of the strikes are hitting munition storage.

Praise $DEITY there are so few dead.

[greccogirl]

58. Yes.

It is a low number - if Israel wanted to they could have wiped out all of Lebanon including Hizbulloh, if they weren't concerned about civilians.

[Solo_in_MD]

74. Another area than no one has commented on here: sub munitions

This was been a big deal in Afganistan and elsewhere. The IAF has them. If they were really going after soft targets and personnel, they would have been heavily employed. I have not heard of them being used yet.

While I may not like what the IDF is doing, they clearly have a plan and are sticking to it. That plan seems to include minimizing civilian casualties where they can.

[Selatius]

15. The same way you explain 100,000+ dead Iraqis in the US war in Iraq

When you wage war in crowded environments, you end up killing innocent civilians in the process. It's the unfortunate nature of war. As a result, if you go to war, you better have a damn good reason to go to war in the first place, or you shouldn't even bother entertaining the notion of war.

[The Magistrate]

18. Indeed, Sir

You have put it in a nutshell.

An additional complicating fact is that, in fighting an irregular armed body, tha category of "civilian" can become pretty flexible, particularly when the reporting authority does not like what is happening. A dead Hezbollah man, not being a soldier in a state force, can be called a civilian death without really lying, if one is so inclined, though he is certainly a combatant by any reasonable definition.

[cantstandbush]

26. As with any 18-25 year-old in Israel. All considered to be in the

military whether wearing uniforms or not.

[The Magistrate]

32. That Is Not How It Works, Ma'am

The Geneva Accords are quite clear that citizens liable to military service, whether by conscription or by call-up while in inactive reserves, cannot be considered combatants unless called to the colors. Otherwise, it would be no crime of war simply to shoot men of military age, and it most emphatically is. A Hezbollah fighter is a member of an armed body, albeit an irregular one, and while that body is engaged in hostilities, is a combatant, just like a serving soldier of some state. The real distinction is between combatant and non-combatant, not soldier and civilian.

[blonndee]

31. True, and it's also easy for the "regular" force to

claim that civilians were REALLY combatants/insurgents/terrorists. Both of these problems make it even more difficult for the population among whom the irregular fighters move, as the entire population becomes suspect.

[The Magistrate]

37. Absolutely, Ma'm

Many armies seem to operate on the principle that if it is dead, it for damned sure was a combatant, just as partisan forces tend to operate on the principle that any of their people killed were harmless non-combatants murdered by the beastial foe. The fact is that there simply is not enough concrete information available in the present situation to assess whether the Israeli actions are within the laws of war or not, and there may never be. Denunciations or defenses can, at this point, only proceed from pre-dispositrions towards the various saides of the conflict.

A further complicating factor goes beyond the fact that irregular bodies move among the non-combatant populace, using it as a sort of living foliage for concealment: it is part of the routine strategems of guerrilla operations to provoke the conventional enemy into actions that will result in non-combatant casualties, as these have tremendous political utility, and tend to increase recruitment to the guerrilla force.

[Onetothehead]

56. Why the hell do you have the American flag upside down

What the hell is wrong with you, do you know how many people
died for this flag and have spilled
blood in other lands to promote freedom. You need to grow up

[riderinthestorm]

66. The upside down flag is a military distress signal

As an avatar, I use it to indicate that I believe America is in deep distress at the moment with this Administration. It's an entirely appropriate metaphor for what is happening to our country at this time in our history.

Enjoy your stay at DU.

[The Magistrate]

67. It Is A Recognized Disress Symbol, Sir

Certainly you know that.

And the point you are attempting is a foolish one anyway. People serving in the armed forces die for the country and its ideals of liberty and equality and justice for all, in accordance with an oath to protect the Constitution, not for a pretty scrap of cloth.

[Onetothehead]

69. I know that very well sir

But the intention of it here is not for that use. You are not
in a battle field. It should not be used as an avator in that
way.To use it in this kind of way is disrespectful

[riderinthestorm]

72. Ever since Bush v Gore, I consider I am in a battle on a battlefield.

I don't perceive my use of this avatar as disrespectful at all. I believe it is indicative of the state of our union.

[The Magistrate]

73. It Seems Most Likely, Sir

Those who do that do so to mark their distress at the emergency afflicting the nation as the result of disasterous mis-rule by the present regime, which implies no disrespect to the country or the flag, but only to the reptiles in charge of the nation and seeking to shelter themselves behind symbols of patriotism while they loot it....

[malaise]

79. Why don't you volunteer

BUsh needs you in Iraq.

[blonndee]

81. Educate yourself, please. nt

[High Plains]

83. Go away.

[alcibiades_mystery]

33. How elastic would you like your category, Sir?

No doubt, in some case you may be correct. But that is a dangerous, dangerous road you're traveling down, my friend.

Perhaps a bit of reflection on the scope and quality of such "flexibility" is in order?

[The Magistrate]

42. To My Mind, Sir

An active member of the armed elements of Hezbollah is a combatant in the present circumstances.

When one considers the question of destroying facilities maintained by Hezbollah, or infrastructure of use to its maintaining supply and communication for its armed forces, the normal balancing of military utility against harm to non-combatants comes into play in determining whether an action is within or without the bounds of the rules of war.

[alcibiades_mystery]

49. Any active member of Hezbollah is a combatant

But surely you're not claiming that all civilians - or even most - killed during this operation in Lebanon are active members of Hezbollah?

[The Magistrate]

54. There Is Insufficient Information On The Point, Sir

To state yea or nay to that question, and so it is impossible for me to answer it.

[alcibiades_mystery]

59. I'm surprised at you, Magistrate

And that's all I'll say, since I consider you a friend on these boards.

[The Magistrate]

65. It Is My Hope, Sir

Our mutual regard will remain. But there is not sufficient information on the point available, and it is not my custom to state opinions on questions of fact in the absence of knowledge essential to forming an accurate opinion.

[riderinthestorm]

68. I admire your restraint

As the rhetoric has ramped up here over the past few days, I've been really dismayed at the lack of factual basis for some assertions here. We don't know what's going on over there and to make categorical statements as though they are fact is pretty unfair.

I have to admit, I am with some of the rest of you here. There should be thousands of civilian casualties if Israel were really targeting, willy nilly, civilians. I am really shocked and profoundly grateful the Lebanese casualties are so low all things considered. (Please note, I'm not trying to diminish the horrendous individual costs to each Lebanese civilian, so please don't flame this. I'm speaking militarily only.)

Hezbollah shares a huge portion of blame for placing their operations in civilian areas. What a tremendous shame. Why did Lebanon allow them to do this? There's some guilt there on Lebanon's part as well....

[The Magistrate]

71. The Lebanese Government Allowed It, Ma'am

Because it had no real alternative: the choice was turn a blind eye or ignite a civil war that the government might well lose. People may be forgiven for punting such a decision down the road in the hope something better will turn up....

Remember that for five of the last six years since the Israeli departure from southern Lebanon, Syria remained in occupation, and the government of Lebanon was a mere puppet of Damascus. Hezbollah on the borders of the Galillee suited Syria just fine. It has only been for a year or so that a real Lebanese government has existed, and it is still a weakling sprout.

[riderinthestorm]

75. I really feel for the Lebanese people and govt

Squeezed between a rock and a hard place.

I am so angry at the Bush Admin for their benign neglect of this area - Lebanon especially. It didn't have to be like this. If they were at all serious about bring democracy to the MidEast (and we know that's a farce), they'd have understood all this.

:cry:

[alcibiades_mystery]

77. I fear, Sir

That no amount of information will satisfy you on this point. I fear, in other words, that your reticence on this point owes not to a lack of accurate information, but to a desire for an opposite conclusion. Cheers.

[The Magistrate]

82. That Is Not The Case, Sir

Reliable reports, on the nature of the casualties and the circumstances of their infliction, when these emerge, as they are bound to, will determine my charactization of the events. It is quite possible for a reasonable goal or a just cause to be pursued in a criminal manner, or even a foolish one, and it is my practice to apply the same standard to the violence of all sides.

[alcibiades_mystery]

29. If it is an inevitability that you will have high civilian deaths

Then it doesn't really matter whether you are targeting them or not. The decision to proceed is criminal, with or without intent, but especially under this vapid, despicable pretense that "shit just happens." No, people made a choice that they knew involved hundreds of unnecessary deaths, and pretended afterwards that it was a necessity. The category of intent is a red herring and atrocious abrogation of responsibility in such cases. At the very least, whether the Israeli government "intended" civilian deaths matgters not a whit to the civilian DEAD, nor, I suspect, to their families and friends.

You cannot have it both ways. You cannot say, on the one hand, that civilians aren't being targeted, and, on the other, that civilian deaths are inevitable in X type of operation. If they are inevitable, then that rises to de facto "targeting" the second the green light is given. There's no way around this. Of course, the usual response to this conundrum, that ifIsrael did intend civilian casulaties there would be many more of them, is as obvious as it is vapid, a complete non sequitor. The problem is that one claims not to intend what one admits is inevitable. That these multiple senseless declarations continue to appear point to the only force that can keep such nonsense functioning together: ideology, pure and simple.

[The Magistrate]

45. Inevitability Of Harm To Non-Combatants, Sir

Does not make an action criminal under the laws of war.

That the distinction makes no difference to those near and dear the dead and wounded is certainly true, and no one with any sense could imagine otherwise.

[alcibiades_mystery]

48. Perhaps I shouldn't have used "criminal"

It is certainly unethical in the extreme, and meager justification. The narrow category of the "laws of war," in this case, is utterly incapable of any ethical task. What I find despicable is the vapid joining of two justifications for the complete lack of ethical responsibility, the first of which relies on intent, while the second relies on inevitability. Intent doesn't matter if you claim a result is inevitable.

[The Magistrate]

64. Once Matters Have Reached A State Of War, Sir

Ethics is pretty much out the window. There will be situations in which ethical amd moral behavior may be of utility in gaining success in war, but that is not quite the same thing as being ethical or moral; it is merely another field for the ruthlessness needed in the enterprise to be displayed. The Israeli government feels it be a necessity of state that the Hezbollah organization be neutralized and wrecked. That so not an unreasonable position, from the point of view of the Israeli state. The leadership of Hezbollah had clearly calculated that a major confrontation with Israel would advance its own goals of increased prestige as the leading active foe of Israel, and of weakening its political foes in Lebanon itself. That, too, is not an unreasonable position from the point of view of the Hezbollah leadeership. But the collision could only eventuate in war. An excellent case could be made that Israel is playing into the hands of the Hezbollah leadership, particularly in its second goal, by what it is doing today, and if Israel fails to achieve what it has set out to do, Hezbollah will certainly achieve both its goals.

[Solo_in_MD]

28. Well for one thing, if they were targeting civilians there would be 1000s

dead.

Look and the amount of ordinance fired. The casualty figures are surprisingly LOW. They are also warning residents. The IDF is quite competent and considering their target set, keeping the casualties down.

Hezbollah storing and shooting from populated areas, effectively using civilians as shields. This is a serious Geneva Convention no-no, but then the UN and the Geneva Conventions have never mattered to Hezbollah.

Consider this, several of the CNN and BBC stories and video show clear evidence of secondary explosions. That generally means at there was something to hit there.

[alcibiades_mystery]

35. Never competent enough

We're not talking about supermarket shrinkage statistics here, you know. They're not figures. They're human lives.

[Solo_in_MD]

41. Quite competent,especially compared to Hezbollah

who is yet to hit anything with their rockets except civilians.

The level of casualties is surprising low given the amount of ordinance being used by the IDF.

[alcibiades_mystery]

46. Again, never quite competent enough

Hundreds are dead behind such competence. Dead. Never, ever competent enough.

[Solo_in_MD]

50. The competence of an army is not measured in lack of civilian dead

Its measured in accomplishing its objectives at minimal loss of its own lives and expense. The IDF is going out of its way to minimize civilian casualties, but it is Hezbollah who put the military targets in the middle of populated areas. The IDF is doing much better than expected in minimizing civilian deaths

[alcibiades_mystery]

52. Never competent enough

These metrics are as disgusting as anything I've seen. You can't seriously be patting the IDF on the back over ONLY having killed 250 or so non-combatants, can you?

[Solo_in_MD]

55. Not patting anyone on the back in this one, there is plenty of blame

to go around. I am however pleasantly surprised at the lack of civilian casualties. Loss of innocent life is a tragedy and I am glad to see it being minimized.

Your seem to ignore the fact that Hezbollah put them in the danger they face when they intentionally located bunkers, firing sites, and munition storage in heavily populated areas.

[alcibiades_mystery]

57. I don't ignore anything

And I can't say anything about this catastrophe is "pleasant."

We are oceans apart on human worth. There is no metric that would measure "competence" in this area, as far as I'm concerned. I don't think it would do any good shouiting from this shore over to where you sit pleasantly surprised by this whole thing, calculating minimizations, so I will cease discussion here. Good luck to you.

[greccogirl]

60. Compared to Hizbulloh

firing rockets willy nilly anywhere. Of course, their entire purpose (along with Iran) is the destruction of every Jew, which they have reminded us of at every opportunity.............

[High Plains]

84. So your buddies only murdered 300 people this week, so far.

Well, isn't that admirable?

"The UN and Geneva Conventions hae never mattered to Hezbollah." You have a lot of nerve even mentioning the UN, given the dozens of UN resolutions Israel routinely ignores.

[Marie26]

87. If you were the Prime Minister of Israel,

what would you do? A militia organization devoted to the destruction of your country is operating along the northern border. This militia has amassed thousands of rockets, now ready to launch at your country. You know this militia is receiving funding & supplies from other nations, and is growing stronger every day. You also know they are in the process of developing larger & even more destructive weapons. One day, this militia crosses the border & kills 8 of your soldiers & captures 2 others, while also lobbing missiles at your cities. What would you do?

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Onetothehead]

13. Israel can do it, the question is at what cost

It will come down to how far Israel wants to go, right now they are not even using a fraction
of the weapons they posses.but make no mistake Hezbollah are tough fighters but there gonna be squashed this time.

[greccogirl]

61. Yes. Israel could have done it in a few days........

had they shown the restraint they have shown not only now but in every war they've been attacked in.

[Solo_in_MD]

36. Politically, not militarily.

They did it through attrition, ambushes, booby traps and other asymmetrical techniques that should sound real familiar to us. They never stood toe to toe with the IDF. Not even the best Arab armies have been able to do that in the past 40 years. The IDF left Lebanon, but it was not militarily defeated. It left when Israel decided it was not worth it anymore.

This time, its a little different. Hezbbollah, or at least Nasrallah is feeling his oats and saying he will scorch the earth before disarming to anyone and states Hezbollah will go head to head with the IDF. Somehow I don't think so.

Hezbollah is a militia group whose roots were are from regional warlords. Their training is 2 parts Jihad to 1 part basic military skills from another militia style group, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. They lack air power, armor, and tactical discipline. In a straight up fight, I doubt they could defeat the police force from a major US city, let alone a professional army.

One phrase I keep hearing from the Israelis is "This time we will finish it". Almost wondering if it is some sort of Hebrew colloquialism translated into English. Hearing it from people I would not expect to be saying it.

[ShortnFiery]

22. "Casualties of war ,it happens" = It's EVIL and it's WRONG. eom

[Teaser]

10. straw man

Your demogoguery is showing. You're arguing a point the OP didn't make.

But nice try.

[DELUSIONAL]

14. Just nuke Lebanon -- and then Syria -- and then . . . .

plan carefully Israel -- you might use up all your Nukes to kill of everyone who might hate you -- and the enemies you are creating . . . killing requires killing and more killing and yet more killing.

Yep that's the answer -- just roll out the nukes and lob them here and there -- have a nuke lottery.

One over here and one over there -- create a patch work of nukes.

Oh -- what the fall out might drift over Israel?? Just wait -- it will clear and then the land can be claimed -- at least it will be cleared of ???????? oh just fill in the blank.

<Sarcasm -- damn it -- Sarcasm>

How many dead will be enough? How much land will be enough?

Seems like bombing and occupation hasn't work yet -- perhaps it might be a good idea to try something else???

Just asking? I'm not personally involved -- except that my tax money is helping to pay for the bombs and planes etc for this war -- so I am involved. If I travel overseas I could be a target -- so I am involved. But mostly I don't like to see photos of innocent children ANY innocent children killed by indiscriminate bombing.

[Onetothehead]

19. Israel has done just about everything that was asked of them

You have people there that want them dead because they are
Jews.
If the roles were reversed there would be another Holocaust
there and you know it. They would not stop until every Israeli
were dead.

[CuteNFuzzy]

20. Does not justify Israel's current campaign

of targeting the civilian Lebanese population.

Does not justify it one bit.

[Solo_in_MD]

43. They are not targeting the civilian populace

They are going after the sites, storage, and bunkers of Hezbollah who dispersed them in populated areas to use the civilians as human shields. Given the amount of ordinance that has been used, the casualty count is surprisingly low.

[greccogirl]

63. They are

doing no such thing. The goal of the complete destruction of Israel justifies what then?

[ShortnFiery]

24. That talking point doesn't work for any but the "true believers"

It's NO excuse to label an entire POPULACE as worth killing because "your people's lives" are considered more precious BY YOU. It's disgusting hatred on both sides BUT you have no right to broad brush this and use it as an excuse to kill innocents.

[cantstandbush]

27. Save for 16 or so UN resolutions. nt

[cantstandbush]

30. Well for sure you have people here who keep accusing others of

that. I have yet to see where anyone has said that or even implied that. But it's fairly easy to accuse people of such thinking in an attempt to get them to shut up.

[Onetothehead]

44. All this could end tomorow if Hezballa just threw there weapons in

If tomorow All Hezballa , Hamas and the Mulas just threw thier
weapons in the sea
Israel would stop and there would be peace there.Israel would
keep to them selves and 
life would go on. But wait one minute what if tomorow Israel
threw all thier weapons in the sea
do you think there would be peace or would they be
exterminated from the Middle east.
Waiting for some honest answers.

[blonndee]

47. You can't expect one side to do it and not the other.

Given the aggression that Israel is showing, which is illustrative of the aggression they've shown throughout their short history, do you honestly think there's a chance in hell of any Arab nations or groups disarming? You might as well say, if BOTH groups disarmed, maybe they'd get along, but don't hold the non-Israelis to one standard and Israel to another. Israelis are not -- I repeat, NOT -- superior to anyone else, just like the U.S. is not, contrary to what some apparently believe deep down in their hearts.

[Solo_in_MD]

51. Hezbollah has been told by the UN to disarm and let the Lebanese

army take over. They have refused.

A recent statement by Nasrallah says he will scorch Lebanon before disarming. The Lebanese national army is not shelling Israel, Hezbollah is.

This would all be over if Hezbollah disarmed.

[blonndee]

53. Actually, you are right, my mistake.

I interpreted the comment as referring collectively to the neighboring Arab nations, probably because of a careless read on my part and also recently reading that exact sentiment here recently.

I acknowledge my mistake and concede the point.

[Solo_in_MD]

62. no one is keeping score, this is a discussion not a tennis match

I clearly come from a military background and know something about how wars are fought. I tend to take somewhat pedantic technical positions when it comes to accuracy of statements being made, especially against those who thrive on hyperbole, and are therefore easy targets. That does not mean I agree with what Israel or Hezbollah is doing, just trying to get correct details out there, since the details matter. For example in another post I discussed the difference in how the IAF might have cratered the runways in Lebanon, since it could mean a difference in months when it comes to getting the airfields operational again.

The facts are that Hezbollah is an illegal militia being supported by outsiders. It takes serious money to do what they do and they sure as hell aren't getting it from Lebanon. They run the southern end of the country as an Islamic state in defiance of the UN and the national government. Acting as a surrogate they poke at Israel in much the same way they did while Israel occupied southern Lebanon. This time the lion came out of his cave, and the devastation is terrible. However, what the IDF is doing makes sense from their objectives. Still a terrible price is being paid by the people of Lebanon. Hezbollah should get the bill for it, but somehow I don't think so.

[Hardrada]

23. I agree with you and not the rah rah Israel posters.

The U.S is complicit in Israel's murderous assault on a neighboring nation's people and infrastructure. A lot of people have to play the antisemitic card because their consciences may have begun, at this point, to bother them.

[sampsonblk]

70. Who will declare victory and pull back first?

That's the real question. The Israelis are apparently not going to achieve their objectives without paying a much higher price than they planned for. How much will they invest in this before they decide they've done enough?

On the other hand, Hezbollah's stated objectives are completely out of reach. There is NO way Isreal can exchange prisoners with them now. Cannot happen. So I would think that these are not their real objectives. If so, then what are their real objectives? They must be after something far more limited. When will they announce that they, not Israel, are the victors and will cease their attacks?

My bet is that Hezbollah will hold off until they're down to their last rocket before they blink. How many rockets do they have? Can Israel keep this this up that long? Are they willing to do that? Or will they throw in the towel due to international concerns?

[Solo_in_MD]

76. I am not sure that the price is going to be beyond Israeli estimates

The land action just started and we will need to see how it develops.

The consensus is that there will be some sort of security zone patrolled by UN troops. Between now and then, Israel will be going over most of southern Lebanon looking for launch sites and hidden supplies. Not clear how far north they are going with this searching, and there was a lot of Hezbollah infrastructure around Beirut.

Hezbollah was considered to have 10,000 rockets. Read tonight that the estimates that 1000 have been fired. Some have been blown up by the Israelis, so its anyones guess about how many they have left, of what type and range. Figure 50% attrition would be my guess

[sampsonblk]

88. You could be right, of course

Neither side is going to tell us what their limit is before they give in.

It appears that the Israelis have prevented Hezbollah from being resupplied. So once they run out of rockets, they will have to come to the table and talk. If it does come to that, I suspect they will sue for peace before they completely run out - in order to save face and ammo.

Will the Israelis see this through till then? It looks like it, but I am not so sure.

[Igel]

86. Considering that there have been but two or three

skirmishes, deep in the south of Lebanon and away from cameras, with there being no stated intent from Israel to occupy any land there ...

What would Hezbollah's "breaking" look like? Would it be noticeable from 20k feet up or from across the border?

Is it even possible without significant ground action, either by the Israelis, the Lebanese military, or folks on the ground?