Serious question: what is Israel trying to accomplish?

[WilliamPitt]

Leaving off hyperbole about end times and all that crap, I'm looking for informed opinion as to what Israel is attempting to accomplish with all this.

Do they want Hamas to fold as the new Palestinian government?

Do they want to batter Hezbollah into giving up their arms?

Are they just looking to get those IDF soldiers back?

If any or all above, or something else, is the ultimate goal of all this, is there any reasonable expectation that the current tactics will succeed?

[Teaser]

1. My guess:

blow shit up.

[chimpymustgo]

26. They're spreading democracy?

:shrug:

[whistle]

2. Dick Cheney's strategy to have the world dominated by fascism

...simple as that.

[Midlodemocrat]

3. I don't think that they are going to all this to

get those two soldiers back, but that is JMHO. It seems to me that they are trying to get Hezbollah to disarm. My brother was just there, and while admittedly he is not a Middle Eastern Scholar, the clients of ours that he visited indicated that the average Israeli had accepted Hamas and was going about their lives.

Again, this is just my opinion.

:hi:

[Swede]

4. They want rockets to stop dropping on their towns.

They are lashing out in fear and anger.

[tridim]

12. They're "lashing out in fear and anger".. Just like Bush.

The entire world seems to be in a reactionary mode, which is EXACTLY what the terrorists want. They've won.

[ananda]

65. bears repeating

"The entire world seems to be in a reactionary mode, which is EXACTLY what the terrorists want. They've won."

"The entire world seems to be in a reactionary mode, which is EXACTLY what the terrorists want. They've won."


"The entire world seems to be in a reactionary mode, which is EXACTLY what the terrorists want. They've won."

[BurtWorm]

27. That's a very generous reading of the situation.

I don't know if that's why the government of Israel is behaving the way it is. I think they're behaving in a way they have come to be expected (by the ruling power class, domestic and international) to behave when dealing with neighboring states. It amounts to reaction, but I don't think it's out of fear or anger.

[MikeNY]

84. Huh? Governments have emotions?

Israel has been on a media blitz in the US for the last few weeks about how their towns are being rocketed by hundreds of bombs a day. How come I haven't seen any footage of this? What I do see is Israel destroying a civilian airport, shooting at FOX (yes, FOX, reporters.. search YouTube for it), and a lot of other provocative actions that threaten Middle East stability.

Israel has one of the most powerful armies in the world thanks to US funding. Are we now surprised to see them using their arsenal?

The US just vetoed a resolution that:

Called for the immediate release of the Israeli troops
Called on the Palestinians to end the violence
Condemned Israel for knocking out power / killing civilians
Provide international aid, humanitarian aid.

We vetoed it because its "out of date". Tell that to the people that are going to die.

War is good for business.

[eridani]

86. When did the rockets start dropping on their towns?

Didn't hear word one about it until this Gaza crisis.

[muriel_volestrangler]

89. There's an interesting timeline at Wikipedia (bear with me)

Yeah, I know, it's not reliable in itself - but it's very well backed up by links to press reports (over 120 of them!) Operation Summer Rains

This points out:

Tensions had been high for some time in Israel due to Qassam rocket attacks launched by Palestinians into densely populated areas such as the Israeli city of Sderot, reported to have exceeded 800 rockets in the past seven months,<6> although there had been no casualties since Israel's withdrawal from Gaza.<7> Concurrently, between the end of March and the end of May 2006, Israel fired at least 5,100 artillery shells into the Gaza Strip.<8>

On June 9, during or shortly after an Israeli operation, an explosion occurred on a busy Gaza beach, killing eight Palestinian civilians, of whom three were children.<9><10> An investigation is underway as to who is responsible. Israeli shelling was temporarily suspended, but resumed soon after and reached more than a thousand shells per week by the end of the month.<11> Other Israeli missile attacks included one on the Gaza highway on June 13 that killed 11 Palestinians (including 2 children) and injured 30, and on June 20 that killed 3 Palestinians (all children) and wounded 15.<12><13>
...
On June 24, 2006, Israeli commandos entered the Gaza Strip to capture two Palestinians, who Israel claims are Hamas militants, in the first arrest raid into the Strip since Israel pulled out of Gaza in September 2005.<18><19>

On June 25, 2006, armed Palestinians crossed the border from the Gaza Strip into Israel via a makeshift tunnel and attacked an Israel Defense Forces post. During the morning attack, two Palestinian militants and two Israel Defense Force soldiers were killed and four others wounded, in addition to Shalit, who suffered a broken left hand and a light shoulder wound.<20><21>

So there actually is a pattern of gradual build up to this - rockets and shelling, followed by deaths, followed by snatches on both sides.

[eridani]

91. Very useful.

Thanks.

[Toots]

100. Yep that's how you do that all right

Do you really believe they are so stupid? You don't bomb civilian targets and kill women and children and expect people to be nice to you. It just doesn't work that way...They are just escalating the violence and IMO that is exactly what they want.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. An attack on Iran.

They want an excuse to take out Iran's nuke facilities.

That's my guess.

[druidity33]

96. my thought too... nt

[Astrad]

6. My sense is it has more to do with internal Israeli politics much

like the "war on terror" does here. When a missle lands in Israeli territory there's a knee-jerk sense that something should be done. Which of course something should and the easiest and most emotionally satisfying response in the short term is always aggression. And politicians can exploit that for political advantage. Olmert needs to seem strong so as not to lose support to Likud and its like. Tragic really.

[Howardx]

15. very good point

from the cs monitor

"Analysts say that unlike former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who had a history of taking an aggressive military stance, Mr. Olmert is considered relatively "untested" as a national leader, making it harder for him to display patience. Mr. Sharon and cabinet members who supported the disengagement plan - Olmert included - said that once Israel was no longer occupying Gaza, it would respond harshly."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0629/p01s04-wome.html?s=t5

[w4rma]

83. Maybe hes trying to pacify the Israeli right-wing so he isn't assassinated

by a right-wing radical as another famous Israeli peacemaker was.

[mike_c]

18. agreed-- I think this is closest to the truth although any of the...

...consequences mentioned in this thread are plausible outcomes. The IDF is Israeli foreign policy for all intents and purposes. Military responses are the norm for Israel and the internal politics dictate disproportionate force against arabs, etc.

[Posteritatis]

37. Is shooting *back* "aggression?"

No value judgement either way, I'm still on the fence about this particular mess. Just curious as to folks' interpretations of it.

(For a more loaded version of the question, does the answer depend on who's shooting back?)

[sendero]

97. Yes.....

..... taking out hundreds of civilians in response to the kidnapping of two soldiers is "aggression".

Israel has a history of absurd and untargeted retaliation for everything that happens against them. Look how well it is worked for them.

And we seem to be following their methods closely in Iraq. It's going to work just as well for us.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

7. my view on this includes two of your options

I do believe they want the soldiers returned...however, this is a very convenient excuse for battering Hezbollah positions and facilities in order to remove that stone from the Israeli shoe. Or at least shrink it...

My $.02

sP

[Selatius]

8. They want to do several things in your list, but...

I don't believe the situation can be solved at this point through military force anymore. There will have to be a diplomatic solution unless we want to sit back and risk watching the situation escalate over and over again into a bigger problem.

[rucky]

9. How have these policies worked out for them so far?

some say not well, considering all the violence.

others imagine that it would be much worse without all the violence. I can't defend that position right now.

[PuraVidaDreamin]

10. US need to stop sending millions of dollars a day to Israel

Without true leadership I fear there is
no good outcome here.

[bullimiami]

11. what is scary is how olmert is making sharon look sane.

i dont believe they are working with a long term plan, its just desperate reaction, striking out because they dont know how else to deal with everything.

[malaise]

30. hahahahaha - not funny but

I was wondering if Sharon was running the operation from the nursing home.

This is Sharon in the 1980s.

[Jacobin]

13. Hard liners on both sides are driving the train wreck

Hard line Likud party members want to expel Palestinians and increase the size of Israel to its 'biblical proportions'

Hard line Palestinians want to destroy Israel as a state and run all the Jews out of the Middle East.

They are both getting their way...in a way.

[AngryAmish]

14. From what I have heard

Israel will not allow a Hamas government to function. Israel believes that Hamas is a genocidal organization dedicated to the elimination of Israel and Jews both. They have decided to punish the people of Gaza for electing Hamas and prove that support for Hamas will mean that the people of Gaza will live in squalor. They have been going about this for a few weeks now since the Hamas inclusive government of Gaza will do nothing to stop the rocket attacks against Israel.

Why the actions in Lebanon? There had to be a response. In the past Israel has traded lots of lebanese prisoners for the bodies of a few IDF soldiers and a live Israeli businessman. There is a newish gov't in Israel who may be putting on a show of force to make their bones with the populace.

Many (some?) Israelis think also that all their enemies respect is force. So if Israeli gets hit they hit back with much more force.

[bryant69]

16. I think part of it is that they are afraid of looking weak

They don't feel they can afford to back down.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[MallRat]

17. Olmert may be overcompensating for his lack of military credentials.

Doesn't it always seem like the leaders with the least military experience are the ones most likely to quickly resort to force?

[pecwae]

88. Another good point. n/t

[theboss]

19. I think three things are at play

1. As others have pointed out, there is nothing better to get the poll numbers up than a foreign war.
2. I think Israel does legitimately fear Hezbollah and wants to give them a good battering.
3. They are sending a message to Hamas that they are willing to fight it and all of its friends if need be. Israel almos always uses military aggression to drive people to the negotiating table.

[Rex]

20. Well they were trying to get back one of their soldiers.

And now, dam if it ain't breaking down into a full blown war. I think if the ME was just at the normal vulcan level of death and destruction, then the problem with Israel and the Palestinians would blow over.

Things are not normal, not even close. We occupy Iraq and some of Afghanistan and have made hostile overtures toward Syria and Iran. We made it a regional war by abandoning our mission in Afghanistan and invading Iraq. So 3 years have passed and what's happened? In Afghanistan the opium fields are producing at an all time high and the capital of Iraq gets about 4 hours of electricity a day.

Small things lead to huge wars as often as big things do.

[PassingFair]

45. I don't buy it. I think you need to shoot an ArchDuke to start

a full scale war. It's in the rules somewhere.
:)

What I think will depend on how OUR gov't reacts.
I fear it is all play acting to set the stage for
a U.S. invasion of Iran.

The plans DO call for Iran or Syria to be next.
Most people (myself included) are surprised it's
taken THIS long.

PNAC is a tad off schedule in their plans for
world domination.

[Rex]

62. I agree, I thought PNAC would attack Iran back in March.

I hope someone takes a giant dump on PNACs plans.

[Carni]

103. I agree passing fair I think this is all the PNAC plan

This has been their end game all along although realistically what they think this will actually accomplish is a mystery to me...if everything has been blown to hell there won't be a lot of places for these crooks to spend their stolen money at will there?

Of course no one said these creatures were sane...

[lutefisk]

105. The PNAC'ers are a bit touchy when asked about "timetables"

They get real cranky when asked about a timetable for Iraq, and part of that irritability comes from what you stated:

"PNAC is a tad off schedule in their plans for world domination."

They are evil and misguided as well as tragically incompetent.

[Penndems]

21. Revenge

Tit for tat for the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. I fear that entire region is gonna go up like a tinder box, and the Bush cabal is standing back, watching it happen. Damn them!

Every single Administration - with the exception of this one - has had the Israelis and the Palestinians at the negotiation table. We need a diplomat whose is an expert in Middle Eastern affairs (NOT BOLTON - he's no diplomat) to get them to engage in peace talks. When they're talkin', they ain't fightin'.

Dennis Ross was our Middle East Envoy during the Clinton Administration. Too bad the current one doesn't have someone like him now.






(edited to correct typo)

[Junkdrawer]

22. A policy of disproportional response ON ALL SIDES will do it...

every time.

Kinda like playing "chicken" with locomotives hauling gasoline tank cars.

[Junkdrawer]

41. Rush Limbaugh: December 7, 2001

Unleash Israel and Win Peace

The only way some form of quiet will ever exist in the Middle East is if Israel is given the latitude to totally defeat its declared enemies. Only then will the terrorist attacks on Israel's civilians come to an end. Perpetual negotiations, diplomatic half measures, or land for peace deals will not bring peace to the Middle East. For those who believe this is an irresponsible notion, I use history as my guide.

....

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_071306/content/rush.guest.html

Chilling then, especially chilling now...

[pa28]

66. That's exactly what's going on here.

This "disproportionate retaliation" we've been hearing about seems like a matter of doctrine on all sides.

Look out.

[leftofthedial]

23. neocon hegemony in the ME

and the US has botched the job strategically in Iraq

don't dismiss religious extremism. that is a key component of RW Israeli political motivation.

[leesa]

24. I think it's their last chance to take control of the Middle East. Their

puppet and cash cow, the Unites States, is headed into the shitter. Right at this moment the US and Israel have the most powerful military forces in the world, but it won't be the case much longer when China and Japan and Saudi Arabia call in their debts.

They're going for the brass ring.

[malaise]

31. Yep

A last ditch attempt as Bushco has failed completely and utterly.
sp.

[cali]

71. Israel is not some diabolical puppet master controlling

the entire world. Maybe you should broaden your reading and research. Yikes.

[Warren Stupidity]

74. You grabbed the brass ring!

That is it in a nutshell. This is the path to our war with Iran and Syria. We need a cause to start it and this is their way to get a cause going.

[kentuck]

25. They may be trying to distract from the civil war going on in Iraq...

I'm sure it's a proportional response?

[FSogol]

28. They want increased US aid and by aid, I mean $$$$$. n/t

[God Almighty]

29. They want an all-out Arab-Israeli war because the US backs them

They want full control of the Middle East. The Israelis believe they would likely win as they are the only country in the Middle East that has any significant chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and they believe they can get away with any war crimes they commit. They are extremely confident and are showing off their believed power. The world needs to seek sanctions. Personally, I think the people running the government of Israel should be exiled to a desert island until they learn to stop attacking their neighbors. Most Jews of conscience are currently opposed to what Israel is doing.

[flyarm]

32. they want the war with iran..that bush wouldn't start so they are starting

the ball rolling..they want this war in the worst way..is how i see it..

but i do not pretend to know much about it..but it is what i fear..

they want this war with iran..

and this is how they will get their war..with us fighting it..

fly

[MadAsHellNewYorker]

33. Serious question: what is Hezbollah trying to accomplish?

why did they take the soilders in the first place?

[Coexist]

34. I am not sure - but it scares me.

I will be holding my breath for a while.

My greatest fear is that they are trying to draw other ME countries into this - to give us a better reason for attacking Iran - to help 'stabilize' the region.

I know they want Hezbollah out of Lebanon.

We will see what they get.

[eridani]

87. A blast from the past

Hezbollah didn't even fecking EXIST until the first Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the 80s.

[Fleshdancer]

35. I honestly have no idea

I feel for the kidnapped soldiers and their families, I really do. I think Israel has a right to defend herself just like I think all nations have a right to defend themselves...this includes Lebanon and Syria.

This situation doesn't make sense to me though. I personally think all parties involved are wrong for various reasons and the only conclusion I can come up with that makes any sense to me is that a small group of people want to fight and have the power to do so.

Meanwhile, millions of people on both sides of the conflict who desire nothing more than living a peaceful existance and being flat out ignored. This infuriates me.

[stop the bleeding]

36. AIPAC & PNAC

this is my answer - and I am serious as anyone could be right now.

[New Government]

57. Damn right. Best answer in the thread. It's the TRUTH!.....nt

[Balbus]

38. Israel is just tired of the bullshit.

And I, for one (and the only maybe), am quite glad that they are reacting aggressively to this provocation.

[npincus]

106. you're not alone

:)

[Cleita]

39. I think they have their RW nuts in power just like we do who are

using their military for nefarious purposes. I know Israelis and other Jewish people who do not agree with a lot of the things these politicians do and who do believe the Palestinian people have been ill treated by their fellow Israelis.

That being said, I really stay out of these discussions because no one seems to know where there is a solution to the problem.

[Hatalles]

53. This is what happens when too many RW nuts are in power all around...

... the world.

[bdamomma]

59. I only wish these leaders would fight it out among themselves

and keep innocent civilians out of it, wishful thinking......sigh...

[itzamirakul]

95. I agree. The sad thing is that the average, everyday person in both

the Israeli and the Arab communities are the people who are really suffering through these constant "wars." It can't be pleasant to have to spend the night in an rocket shelter regardless of which side you are on.

An article in the February 2006 NY Daily News said that there are more Israelis living in NYC now than living in Tel Aviv. I think it is this continuous instability in the region that is bringing more and more families out of Israel. Who wants to have to think about their children being forced to serve in the armed forces?

I don't know about Arab families, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that they, too are trying to escape this hotbed of historical conflict and immigrate to places where their children can grow up in freedom and peace.

In the long run, I think the average, everyday "Joe" in both the Arab and the Israeli communities wants the same thing...peace.

It is the powerful few who want dominion and control. It is they who need to be neutralized.

[moondust]

40. Rockets.

As the "security barrier" has been largely effective against the suicide bombers, apparently Hezb/Hamas have pursued other approaches to terrorizing Israel, namely rockets that will go over walls. Israeli intelligence may indicate that large caches of rockets are starting to pile up in southern Lebanon and they have decided to put a stop to the rocket strategy before it goes any farther. The kidnappings provided an opportunity.

??

[Plaid Adder]

42. This cannot possibly be about two kidnapped soldiers.

The way I figure, this is about seizing the opportunity to prove to everyone that they are the people who really control the occupied territories--and Lebanon, and anyone else who's close enough for them to attack--because they have the military, and so they don't have to care what party's in charge of the Palestinian Authority.

What do they hope to gain? Who knows? I don't think that's what it's even about any more. I think that situation has gotten so reactive and entrenched over the past 30 years that there is not a whole lot of rational thought being put into these decisions. If there is an objective, it's probably crushing the Palestinian and Palestinian-friendly resistance; but, you know, good luck with that. Responding to terrorist attacks with overwhelming military force hasn't worked out for them too well so far.

Oh well,

The Plaid Adder

[kentuck]

56. And Israel and the US did not like the "free" elections...

that put Hamas in control of the Government? They like democracy and elections but not when it's one they don't like....

[cantstandbush]

99. The Palestinians freely elect Hamas and Israel goes bezerk and

the US tries hard not wet its pants. What if other countries decided to bomb the hell out of Israel for electing Likud?

[paparush]

108. DING! DING! DING!! We have a winner!!! nt

[Carni]

104. One of the Zogby's gave a really good synopsis this AM

I cannot recall if it was James or the brother but basically he said you have all this anymosity, history and drama--loss of relatives and lives on both sides and now the kids are being allowed to run amuck with no parental authority present.

He also said something to the effect that bush needs to engage with these people to try to calm things down instead of serving as a cheerleader on the sidelines egging Israel on.

Those aren't his words but in a nutshell he was basically saying the above and the way he put it made a lot of sense and he was not condoning the behavior of either side.

[Donna Zen]

43. Leaders vs People

What the leaders want and what the people want are two very different things. Both the Israeli and the Palestinian people want security, food, love, and happiness. The leadership want to stay in power, and probably to increase their power.

We are ignoring the initiating event: the beach bombing. Considering our limited news service, we may be missing other events, but we can start there. After the bombing, which made the Palestinians doubt their government's ability to provide security, Hezbollah ended the cease fire. After that we are seeing a steady escalation including the abduction of Hamas officials. What is going on now is completely over the top.

Now to the question to your question: each side has an underlying philosophy and driving mythology. The Arab/Persian states believe that Israel has stolen territory, and they see them as a threat. Israel believes that they will only peace with friendly governments in Syria and Iran. Iran is now stronger than ever, and threatens to become stronger still. Now is the time, so in that sense, yes, this is part of what we now refer to as PNAC.

I'm hearing nothing from either side that they are ready to join the reality based community any time soon. Also, our news reporters continue to refer to the tactics being employed by the Arab/Persian states as "terrorist's" when in reality, they are using the only weapons they have.

If I were given a choice of where to live, I would of course choose Israel which I believe has a more democratically liberal government. But if I had to choose between the current leaders, the answer would be "dump all of the asshats."

[shance]

44. I don't think it's about Israel. I think it's about a few powermongers

who have taken charge of Israel and are promoting an highly destructive agenda very similar to those who have taken our country hostage.

Death and destruction is a money making industry for these individuals.

[treestar]

46. Don't know. I thought they claimed their damned wall solved

everything? I'm getting sick and tired of them.

They have no sense of justice for anyone and care for nothing except themselves.

[Terran1212]

47. Reassert control over opposing governments in Lebanon, Palestine and

Maybe even Iran and Syria. It's about regional hegemony. They know and everyone on the face of the earth knows that what they're doing will only lead to more violence.

[Emit]

48. A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm

Maybe Olmert is following through with this plan -- it seems to dovetail 'nicely' with the PNAC agenda -- they both seem to be about spreading 'democracy' and 'peace' through pre-emptive wars, and they even have some of the same players involved:

A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm


Following is a report prepared by The Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies’ "Study Group on a New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000." The main substantive ideas in this paper emerge from a discussion in which prominent opinion makers, including Richard Perle, James Colbert, Charles Fairbanks, Jr., Douglas Feith, Robert Loewenberg, David Wurmser, and Meyrav Wurmser participated. The report, entitled "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," is the framework for a series of follow-up reports on strategy.

~snip~

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government comes in with a new set of ideas. While there are those who will counsel continuity, Israel has the opportunity to make a clean break; it can forge a peace process and strategy based on an entirely new intellectual foundation, one that restores strategic initiative and provides the nation the room to engage every possible energy on rebuilding Zionism, the starting point of which must be economic reform. To secure the nation’s streets and borders in the immediate future, Israel can:


:redbox: Work closely with Turkey and Jordan to contain, destabilize, and roll-back some of its most dangerous threats. This implies clean break from the slogan, "comprehensive peace" to a traditional concept of strategy based on balance of power.

:redbox: Change the nature of its relations with the Palestinians, including upholding the right of hot pursuit for self defense into all Palestinian areas and nurturing alternatives to Arafat’s exclusive grip on Palestinian society.

:redbox: Forge a new basis for relations with the United States—stressing self-reliance, maturity, strategic cooperation on areas of mutual concern, and furthering values inherent to the West. This can only be done if Israel takes serious steps to terminate aid, which prevents economic reform.

~snip~

A New Approach to Peace

Early adoption of a bold, new perspective on peace and security is imperative for the new prime minister. While the previous government, and many abroad, may emphasize "land for peace"— which placed Israel in the position of cultural, economic, political, diplomatic, and military retreat — the new government can promote Western values and traditions. Such an approach, which will be well received in the United States, includes "peace for peace," "peace through strength" and self reliance: the balance of power.

~snip~

Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions. Jordan has challenged Syria's regional ambitions recently by suggesting the restoration of the Hashemites in Iraq. This has triggered a Jordanian-Syrian rivalry to which Asad has responded by stepping up efforts to destabilize the Hashemite Kingdom, including using infiltrations. Syria recently signaled that it and Iran might prefer a weak, but barely surviving Saddam, if only to undermine and humiliate Jordan in its efforts to remove Saddam.

~snip~

Changing the Nature of Relations with the Palestinians

Israel has a chance to forge a new relationship between itself and the Palestinians. First and foremost, Israel’s efforts to secure its streets may require hot pursuit into Palestinian-controlled areas, a justifiable practice with which Americans can sympathize.

Cont'd: http://www.iasps.org/strat1.htm

[Penndems]

49. Will, please take a look at Larry Johnson's excellent blog post at DKos:

It offers a very extensive clarification of U.S. foreign policy regarding Israel and Lebanon:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/13/202447/377

[PA Democrat]

51. Thanks for sharing. Excellent article.

You should post some excerpts in a separate thread.

[Hubert Flottz]

50. They are killing everyone over there, so that we don't have to kill

them over here!

[pitohui]

52. a small outnumbered nation that will always be a small outnumbered nation

their only chance of long term survival is to respond so over-the-top that no one dares to fuck w. them

who got invaded? iraq or north korea? who do you tiptoe around more carefully -- the neighborhood pussy cat or the rampaging rabid wolf? people have to respect you more if you're effin' crazy

israel is a tiny jewish nation in a planet that is overwhelmingly muslim and opposed to their v. existence or else just plain anti-semitic and opposed to their v. existence

disportionate response is their only hope for long term survival, appeasement means they get run over sooner or later and probably sooner

bartcop won't discuss israel/palestine issues...but this is one place where i can almost hear him saying -- "learn to play poker"

it's pretty much game theory politics and while i don't like it, i don't have a better suggestion for them

[frustrated_lefty]

101. That basically sums it up

I remember Iraq version 1.0. The first worry raised was "what if SCUDs hit Israel and Israel retaliates?"

Israel is a small nation surrounded by unfriendly nations.

I'm reminded of the bit in The Princess Bride where V'cini comments on the classic blunders.

Don't get involved in a land war in Asia.
Don't bet against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

And, I would add, don't f%^$ with Israel. Disproportionate response is how they survive.

The only "solution" I can see is mass exodus. Give Arizona to Israel and remove the thorn from the Muslim paw. Like that will ever happen. AIPAC and PNAC can't be diverted from proving just how big their brass balls are.

[Liberal_Dog]

54. WW3

nt

[Strelnikov_]

55. Winston Churchill

Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.

I think it began as a limited, and justified, operation to rescue a soldier. The politicians were pissed (they did withdraw from Gaza, after all), and unleashed their dogs of war.

Once unleashed, the dogs of war did what they always do, over-react and over-kill (bombing the power station?).

Like most military operations, things are now spinning rapidly out of control.

The World War I analogy is valid IMHO. No country really wants war, but 'by God if they provoke us, we will be forced to act'.

The anti-Western forces have sensed the currently weakened state of the US ground forces, and not really fearing air assault, are apparently emboldened.

[RagingInMiami]

58. They're trying to hop on the anti-Muslim band wagon that the shrub created

Any other American president would be stepping in right now, trying to create peace. They know they won't have that annoyance with the shrub.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

60. Both sides were getting too close to peace

The Palestinians elected a new government. Israel pulled out of Gaza despite the settlers going nuts. Then the Palestinian government's foreign sources of funds were cut. And remember the shelling of the beach a few weeks ago that killed an entire family? Now the Israeli soldier has been captured.

I think there are elements on both sides that freak out if even the remote possibility of peace appears on the horizon. They just can't see each other living side-by-side.

[Warren DeMontague]

61. Well, if Hamas and Hizbollah decide to return the soldiers they kidnapped

then I guess we can find out if this is "really" about that, or not, can't we?

[Name removed]

63. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[cali]

69. There's really no excuse for comments

such as yours. It would be no more palatable if someone said "screw Iran, it's an unviable nation, a political cancer", or any other country. Amazing that people can't control their rhetoric. It's like listening to a bunch of 12 year olds.

[cali]

70. There's really no excuse for comments

such as yours. It would be no more palatable if someone said "screw Iran, it's an unviable nation, a political cancer", or any other country. Amazing that people can't control their rhetoric. It's like listening to a bunch of 12 year olds.

[chookie]

64. They are trying to ignite a regional war, with US as ally

The US has been generous and loyal in its support of Israel -- we pour treasure into this country, and we have, for decades, elected leaders and representatives who have pledged support of Israel.

The US has traditionally functioned as an "honest broker" between the fighting parties. However, with the advent of the Bush adminstration, this changed. In the very first Bush Cabinet meeting he announced that it was time for Israel to be allowed to prevail -- presumably with its superior military power.

Bush foreign policy has been derived by his NeoCon advisors, who have been calling for American military force to change the balance of power in the middle east, and secure Israel as the unquestioned dominant player. Our policy seems to have changed from supporting the right of Israel to exist, to supporting its wider ambitions in the region.

No doubt that Israel had to respond to the kidnapping of its soldiers -- but by cutting off Gaza and destroying the infrastructure of its already impoverished people? Cutting off Lebanon from its Arab neighbors, and establishing a naval blockade? Flights over Syrian airspace -- including buzzing the residence of the president? And now, Israel is accusing of Iran being behind the Hezbollah strikes, and threatening to strike there as well, with all options on the table. One of the objectives of "shock and awe" was to frighten the bejeebers out of anyone who dared defy the US -- and presumably warn them that they faced certain destruction if they continued to oppose Israel. I don't think it worked, though, because it did not consider human nature, in that a people under threat or siege will unite and resist; even if they cannot win, at least they will take some of their enemies with them.

I fear that the kidnapping was just a pretext to act on wider Israeli ambitions in the region, with full US backing.

Bush has said repeatedly that he will come to the defense of Israel. I read this to mean American military involvement in a regional war, which has been a NeoCon policy, as noted above.

All that stands between us and a wider regional war is some new provocation....

And who is standing in between Israel and Iran? -- many thousands of American soldiers.

My reading of the situation is very grave. In these last few days, I have been trying to enjoy all the little things in my life -- the park, my dog, smiling people -- because I fear that soon I will wake up to the news that the US is at war, as an ally of Israel, against Syria, Lebanon and Iran -- and that bodes ill. The catastrophic quagmire after the all-out war and certain success of the combined US/Israeli forces over their enemies would dwarf that of Viet Nam, Iraq, and the occupation of Palestine, and drain the US and Israel to such a degree that both may well perish after this rash action to widen the war and settle things once and for all.

I'm still holding out for some as yet unseen hope -- as surely there still are fragments of decency and morality left in the world. But my assessment of the situation remains grave.

[pitohui]

78. it's game theory (mathematics of decision making)

they are not trying to ignite war but they have to appear to be fearless and unafraid of doing same or they will quite simply be overrun

the jewish people have one nation and even that one nation is routinely crapped on and told it shouldn't exist and its land stolen

the other side has, what, 60 nations, and no one tells any of them that they shouldn't exist and even if they were told, they'd just laugh and continue outbreeding


in such a situation every decision made by israel is going to look ugly but i'm not seeing where they have a great many choices, any sign of weakness would be a death sentence to their people

[specimenfred1984]

67. Serious Q: Why's U.S. Torturing People?

We know it fails to gain any credible intelligence so why do we torture people?

Hate.

[threadkillaz]

68. Escalation.

Two soldiers get kidnapped, and Lebanon loses an airport, a highway and has 46 civilians dead.

Israel still fired the first missile on Lebanon when all the dust settles.

And who detained the Palestinian Government last month?

Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) Carry Out Reprisals against Palestinian Civilians in the West Bank

"These forces detained nine cabinet ministers, twenty-one PLC members and a number of Hamas political leaders."

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2006/06/israel-kidnaps-palestinian-government.html



Israel Kidnaps as Hostages Palestinian MPs, Cabinet Ministers
Abbas: Israel Committing Crimes against Humanity, Collective Punishment

Israel in violation of international law kidnapped as hostages nine Palestinian cabinet ministers, 21 MPs, a number of elected mayors among at least 60 others in the West Bank and pushed its tanks and troops into northern Gaza Strip overnight Thursday in the second stage of “Operation Summer Rains,” cutting less than one million Palestinians from electricity and water supplies for months.

[zulchzulu]

72. It's all about PNAC, Jack...and they want to be given all kinds of slack

The Endless War For Chosen Superstition

Our god says we are the chosen ones, so now it's time to have some fun
Bomb the Unbelievers into oblivion and kill 'em all with our guns
They want us dead so off with their head and rest of the town too
Superstition makes us feel so good with our superstitious world view

Bomb them before they bomb us, let's love the screams and dying
Butcher them for defending themselves, keep those death bombs dropping
We can't stop now, it's too late, we have to stay the course
We don't have a conscience anymore and we live with no remorse

Welcome to The Endless War For Chosen Superstition
It's a Holocaust of Joy For A Suicidal Genocide Solution
Welcome to The Endless War For Chosen Superstition
It's Time For All Of You To Stop Paying Attention

Their god says they are the chosen ones, so now it's time to have some fun
Bomb the Unbelievers into oblivion and kill 'em all with our guns
They want us dead so off with their head and rest of the town too
Superstition makes us feel so good with our superstitious world view

[The Backlash Cometh]

73. It's Iran. They want the job completed.

Even the Saudis see it. The US was suppose to come in and take out Iraq, Iran and Syria. Because, if they stop with Iraq, it gives Iran too much power. They basically can come in and take over.

You see, we have been fighting Israel's and Saudi Arabia's war all along. AND paying increasing price for oil. Insult to injury. I don't think that Israel will wait any longer because they know that Bush's power is finished. However, they may be able to get the US involved anyways, if the tension escalates.

[Tom Joad]

75. We need to end all military aid to a nation that bombs power facilities

and thereby cutting off many people's drinking water.

[SlipperySlope]

77. Would you prefer they bomb the people directly?

On the scale of force used in warfare, bombing power plants is considered much more humane than bombing the population directly. Would you really prefer that Israel do that?

[The Stranger]

111. Well -- now that you mention it -- they are doing that too.

60 + innocent civilians bombed to death.

So add that to the reasons then.

[SlipperySlope]

76. They are punishing Hezbollah for their disproportionate use of force

Serious question: what is Israel trying to accomplish?
In Israel's eyes, it is completely inappropriate for Hezbollah to take Israeli soldiers hostage. By killing up to several hundred thousand Lebanese, Israel hopes Hezbelloah can be taught the error of their ways.

is there any reasonable expectation that the current tactics will succeed?
The population of Lebanon is only 3.8 million. At some point, when fatalities reach the 2.0 to 3.5 million range, the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Lebanese will stop. If for no other reason, than there will be no Lebanese left.

Bottom line, Israel wants what everyone wants, peace on their own terms. And they are willing to wage unending and unyielding war to get it.

[Singular73]

79. They are attempting to provoke Iran

So that our bombs can stop dropping.

I've said this for months now.

The path to war with Iran is through Israel.

Thats why this over-proportional response to the kidnapping of their soldiers looks so forced.

Lets see how many democrats get elected into office during a war with Iran.

[lala_rawraw]

80. My op, smoking gun excuse - US to strike Iran, motive needed

Motive delivered.

[JCMach1]

81. Kadima is securing their right-flank

it's about politics kiddos... plain and simple

[lonestarnot]

82. Ultimately, a draw for Iran.

like a moth to the light.

[1monster]

85. They want to deny the Middle Eastern people the right to self-government.

Just like Bush and Company wants to dominate the Middle Eastern Countries, so do the ruling factions in Israel.

Currently Bush and his gang are working in conjunction with the Israeli government.

It will be interesting to see whether or not they will work together if they achieve their goals or if they will then start to eat each other...

[Behind the Aegis]

90. A flip: Serious question: what is Hizb'allah trying to accomplish?

"Leaving off hyperbole about end times and all that crap, I'm looking for informed opinion as to what Hizb'allah is attempting to accomplish with all this.

Do they want Kadima to fold as the new Israeli government?

Do they want to batter Israel into giving up their arms?

Are they just looking to get those 3 Lebanese prisoners back?

If any or all above, or something else, is the ultimate goal of all this, is there any reasonable expectation that the current tactics will succeed?"

[WilliamPitt]

107. From what I am reading, Hezbollah is trying to survive

From today's Times:

"A few months ago, representatives of every Lebanese political faction gathered in downtown Beirut to discuss the issues that divided them — including how and when to disarm the Hezbollah militia. Intent on keeping its weapons, however, Hezbollah has stymied that discussion by crossing into Israel, killing and capturing Israeli soldiers and prompting a fierce Israeli counterattack that has all of Lebanon in a defensive posture."

Sounds like Hez didn't want to be disarmed, and so they picked a fight.

[AngryAmish]

112. My theory

Israel is trying to settle all the scores it can and live in isolation from their neighbors.

The Syrian Army has left Lebanon. They were the protection for Hezbollah. Israel wants to destroy as much Hezbollah armed capacity as they can right now. Hezbollah picked this fight thinking a prisoner exchange would make Israel humble and make them more popular politically. I don't think they figured Israel would go postal and no one would back them up.

Israel is seeking Hamas' destruction by proving they cannot govern.

[bluedonkey]

92. my opinion

complete with tinfoil hat:

I never belived the israeli government was interested in peace,why else would they had to continue building this wall and cutting people off from their fields and livelyhood.Even after the palestinian/israeli agreement. Then the 'accidently' bombed the beach,killing people. (This happens too often to be a coincidence)Palestinians retaliate. So then Israel proceeds to bomb the power station leaving palestinians without electricity and clean water. Palestinians retaliate,kidnapping a soldier. Israel retaliates,invading Gaza,bombing the crap out of it with sound bombs. As one said "gaza will not sleep tonight".
Now they say they have 'information' the soldiers are transported to Iran. This is what they wanted for a long time,but * didn't deliver fast enough.(remember the rhetoric about Iran),a reason to take out Irans 'nucular facilities.
And there you have it: All out War.
US/* supports Israel all the way.The whole ME blows up.We help Israel and in a time of war it's not a good idea to change presidents,so get to keep * indefinately.

Call me crazy,but I've been fearing this last part ever since * got into office the first time.

[Laughing Mirror]

93. A greater Israel

As always.

[HuffleClaw]

94. three things

1. keep the current government in power
2. enact a plan thats been in the work since long before the soldier was 'kidnapped'.
3. give BUSH a 'justification' for striking iran.

its pretty much that simple, imo.

[farmbo]

98. Interestingly, their targets in Lebanon have been economic, not military

1) All three commercial runways taken out at Beirut international,and 2) Israeli gunboats blockading Lebanese ports. Granted, they couldn't resist taking out some bridges in the south which have some strategic military value, but largly...they're attacking Lebanon's burgeoning TOURIST TRADE.

http://www.tradearabia.com/tanews/newsdetails_snECO_article107072.html

<snip>Lebanon’s tourism sector has witnessed significant growth in recent times and still holds many opportunities for investors. Hand in hand, the hospitality industry is expanding to cater to higher tourist influx, and has thrown up many high return investment options in the areas of conference tourism, medical tourism and environmental tourism, said Itani. <snip>

Either there are a handful of oligarchs who are using tourist dollars to finance Hezbollah and they're sending this message to them, personally, or they discern that Lebanon's general business class will "vote their own interests" and expel Hezbollah from the country, so they can continue their tourism- based economic recovery, in peace.

[thethinker]

102. Land

Israel wants more land - any way they can get it. They also want that land free of its occupants.

The Bush administration wants oil. They control Iraq's oil and they want to control Iran's oil. Then they will go after Saudi Arabia. If not now, the next time we elect a republican.

All the rhetoric is just window dressing. Following the PNAC policy, they will destroy anyone or any thing that gets in their way. The press will rationalize for them both. The rest of us get to pay for it.

The unvarnished truth isn't pretty.

[SaveElmer]

109. A proportional response does not work against Hezbollah...

They are making sure it hurts, and they are making sure the governments involved in supporting them hurt also. I'm not saying Israel is perfect, but I kind of understand what they are doing.

[rman]

110. "...on June 24 Israel abducted two Gaza civilians..."

Noam Chomsky on Democracy Now:

"Gaza, itself, the latest phase, began on June 24. It was when Israel abducted two Gaza civilians, a doctor and his brother. We don't know their names. You don’t know the names of victims. They were taken to Israel, presumably, and nobody knows their fate. The next day, something happened, which we do know about, a lot. Militants in Gaza, probably Islamic Jihad, abducted an Israeli soldier across the border. That’s Corporal Gilad Shalit. And that's well known; first abduction is not. Then followed the escalation of Israeli attacks on Gaza, which I don’t have to repeat. It’s reported on adequately."

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/07/14/146258

[progressivebydesign]

113. Does Israel and America not realize they create terrorists this way?

I know that the godblezamurika crowd will condemn anyone for looking into the causes of terrorism.. but when you make it a policy to attack indiscriminately and disproportionately to the actions of an unmilitarized enemy, then you are playing right into their hands. Killing civilians and destroying lives and towns accomplishes what??? what exactly?? Does it make the terrorist organizations change their ways? no.. it's a fucking recruiting tool for them. Think the children in Lebanon, or Iraq, or Afghanistan, are thinking that Israel or America are heroes? I'd think that it only helps the terrorists when you go so overboard and kill innocents, when diplomacy, negotiations, police actions, and intelligence, are the only way to deal with terorrism. A military response does jack shit.. it only escalates and increases the hatred. Nothing like superpowers using their might to further punish the oppressed.. that plays into the evil plans of terrorists.

[Chimichurri]

114. We baited Israel into antagonizing the region so we could go

into Syria and Iran like they've wanted to all along.

Plus this will keep the people scared just in time for '06.

[Generic Other]

115. Show of strength to reinforce idea that they do not negotiate?

That and the possibility that this is part of the plan to further contain and control the whole ME.

After the build-up to Iraq, I have become much more aware of how the media in collusion with the government prepares citizens to accept a war as inevitable. The rhetoric seems coordinated to advance their designs months, even years, before they actually take action. None of it's random. They manipulate events, create a sense of urgency where there is none, propagandize to us, lie shamelessly and move forward with their plans often coordinated decades in advance.

Why would Israel be any different? The thing that does unsettle me a bit is the notion that Israel adds a different motive and level of manipulation above our own government. They have their reasons for wanting to use the US as a military strike force in the ME. We should have been much more wary examining those reasons before we put a foot in Iraq. At this point, the outcome they desire (security of Israel) seems to coincide with our desires (global establishment of strategic military installations), so we are allied and committed to expanding this struggle in the ME. Whether that is truly in the interests of the United States no longer seems to be an issue for the Bush admin. That's the scary part.

[Joe Fields]

116. I believe that Israel is using this military tactic to put pressure on

the Lebanese govt. and it's citizens to effectively deal with Hezbollah and re-gain control of the southern half of Lebanon. I am no expert, but the Lebanese people cannot be happy that Hezbollah has broken the relatively peaceful co-existence between themselves and Israel that has lasted for several years. As was stated in the news, this came at a really bad time, considering it is the height of "tourist" season in Lebanon. Lebanon's economy had been gaining ground, and many people within that country were enjoying peace and prosperity. That has all changed, thanks to a small group of militants that should have been rooted out years ago.

[happydreams]

117. Since ~1948 the Palestinians have lost 78%

of their territory and the remainder is diced like an onion. Israel is like its big brother the US: it wants MORE!

[slackmaster]

118. Three things IMO

1. Kick some butt.

2. Stabilize their border with Lebanon.

3. Kick some butt.