Gaming BushThe administration is seen as weak, distracted and drained over Iraq—and foreign leaders from Libya to China to Iran are taking advantage of it. MICHAEL HIRSH
The World From Washington
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There is a lesson in this. America is viewed as weak at the moment, distracted and drained because of Iraq—and everybody out there is taking advantage of it. Too often, Americans tend to see other players on the international stage as merely part of the backdrop, conforming to our movements or remaining stationary while we get our act together. In fact, most of these world leaders are aggressive players in their own right who will push back, and hard, when they see softness. Like Libya, they are betting that George W. Bush is too out of resources and time to protest while they make a mockery of his agenda and his leadership.
Consider Bush's No. 1 agenda item for his second term: promoting democracy. Despite the good news out of Iraq in recent days, hopes for a flourishing democracy there have been reduced to hopes for minimal stability. Hopes for a democratically elected Palestinian partner have been reduced to a sense of helplessness while the new Hamas government resumes its policy of officially sanctioned terrorism. Not surprisingly, major Mideast players like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who appeared genuinely under pressure to democratize a year and a half ago, are gaming this situation mightily. Mubarak has jailed his main secular opponent, Ayman Nour, and no longer seems worried about U.S. threats to withhold aid dollars. Taking a page from the book of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, another U.S. ally, Mubarak is permitting the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood to campaign freely and organize protests. That creates a fear of Islamism in Egypt, which in turn allows Mubarak to blunt U.S. pressure for reform. And he's got allies back in Washington, which is worried about the rise of Islamism. "His strongest defenders are now in the U.S. intelligence and defense community," admits one senior U.S. official.
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