There is a large and elaborate formal political science literature on the subject. Unfortunately, nobody reads it outside the Central Intelligence Agency, a few college professors, and political operatives like Mike Ledeen and Grover Norquist . We all should learn what they think they know.
Start here:
http://www.iet.ru/publication.php?folder-id=44&publication-id=4524&lang=en Chapter 4 describes the process of revolution comparing the English, French and 1917 Russian revolutions. The authors use the formal framework elaborated by C.Brinton, identifying three main periods of revolutionary development: the rule of moderates, the rule of radicals and thermidor. However, the substance of the analysis is quite different, being based not on a simple quest for similarities but on the logic of social struggle.
The authors identify several main pillars for this analysis: 1) economic trends matter in the process of revolutionary development (though the “revolutionary economic curve” itself is described in another chapter); 2) as pre-revolutionary society is highly fragmented the dynamics of the revolutionary process cannot be analysed in terms of class struggle, instead micro-social analysis is necessary to understand the logic of revolutionary transformation; 3) weak state power is the essential element of any revolutionary process; 4) four main elements determine the behaviour of any revolutionary government: ideology, the need for social support, the need to find means of financing revolution and the experience of previous revolutions.
The rule of moderates can be divided into several sub-stages: initial unity against the old regime, fragmentation according to positive programs and polarisation in two directions: radical and conservative. Unlike Brinton, the authors consider the process of “dual sovereignty” as a confrontation not between moderates and radicals but between conservatives and radicals, while moderates lose more and more ground to these two extremes. The moderates go under, because they cannot overcome the limits of the type of action determined, first, by their self-image as the most popular government based on national unity and, second, by their ideology of combination of all the best features of the old and new orders.
The rule of radicals, in our view, is shaped by the need to keep together a highly fragmented society in conditions which are extremely dangerous for the revolution. Three main instruments are usually used to achieve this objective: forcefully imposed ideology, terror and manoeuvring among social groups to maintain a pro-revolutionary coalition sufficient for radicals to preserve their power. The role of ideology at the radical stage of revolution is usually overestimated. We illustrate the predominantly practical and pragmatic nature of radicals’ actions by means of several examples. Rather then viewing the radical period as “the reign of terror and virtue”, we see the main determinants of government activity at the radical stage as being the search for sources of funding and for social support. These two goals are often at odds, and the balance between them which is finally achieved is determined by specific features of different revolutions. Experience of other revolutions also plays a substantial role, sometimes more important than ideology itself.
Thermidor is the period shaped by active processes of new elite formation and stratification. It consists of two sub-stages. In the first one, the process of social manoeuvre continues and the government is still weak and vulnerable, as it has to balance the interests of several competing groups in the newly forming elite. The population at large plays a diminishing role in this stage but intra-elite conflicts continue to be sharp and destabilise the situation. But as soon as one of elite groups is strong enough to dominate political life or several of them form a strong alliance, a new authoritarian regime based on the interests of this group (or alliance), is established. It means that the revolution is coming to an end.
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