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Like many others, I wish Id gotten out of stocks altogether some months ago.

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raccoon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-12-08 01:07 PM
Original message
Like many others, I wish Id gotten out of stocks altogether some months ago.

Some say its too late now, may as well stay the course, and maybe theyre right. But of course nobody really knows, and from the headlines it sure looks to me like something on the order of 1929.

I read somewhere, in some economics or investment book, that after 1929 the stock market didnt get up to its prior level until sometime in the 1950s. I dont have 20 years.

Any thoughts?
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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-12-08 08:25 PM
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1. My suggestion is to learn something about technical ananlysis...
This book was suggested to me in late 1999 when I knew Nothing about the stock market and I am sure you can find a used copy online.

One basic premise is that big money moving in and out of stocks leaves a pattern and over time one can learn to recognize these patterns.

Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
http://www.amanet.org/books/book.cfm?isbn=9780814408643


Stockcharts has a free newsletter every other week and Carl Swenlin happens to talk about the 80+ year DOW chart here.
http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20081102 /


Also this person does a 10 minute review each night, he trades for a living and has a much shorter time frame, but I went back and looked at his old videos from last fall when he warned about a bigger decline.
http://www.alphatrends.blogspot.com /

You can look at the charts yourself on this site, they have the daily DOW chart all the way back to January 1900.
http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javacharts.jsp

I am certainly no expert, but willing to share what I have learned...post here or PM me if I can help. My short history in the market, sold everything in our IRA in March 2000, bought some back in late 2002 and early 2003 and have been out of the market since late last year with the exception of some smaller trades.






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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-12-08 08:30 PM
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2. Understanding Patterns and Sequences in the Stock Market
http://www.mathworksheetscenter.com/mathtips/stockmarke...

Just found this site...

"...There are usually four major modules of the stock market sequences to understand:

Accumulation stage: This phase takes place, once the market has faced failure. The early adopters and innovators start purchasing, thinking that, the most awful condition is over. At this stage, the valuations of stocks seem to be very attractive. Hence, the overall market condition begins to change from pessimistic to optimistic.

Mark-up Stage: At this stage, the market slowly starts rising and picks up momentum. The investors feel free and start trading, as the market supersedes its failure. Valuations of the stocks mount well beyond their historic norms. Thus, it is the perfect time to buy and sell shares.

Booming stage: This is a stage, where the stock market attains its full prosperity. There is a lot of happiness. Profit and good valuation exist in the stock market business. Investors deal largely during this period. This is a perfect time to sell shares, since you can expect high profit in this phase.

Mark-Down Phase: This is the final stage of the stock market, where everything seems to be slip-up and failure. Prices of stock market come down and investors suffer loss..."





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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 11:25 AM
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3. A chart example showing a Potential pattern forming...
Edited on Fri Nov-14-08 11:26 AM by slipslidingaway
along with the down trendline and retracement levels.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&...

For yesterday's low to hold, you would like to see a bottoming pattern form, in this case a possible inverted head and shoulders.

edit - this is not my chart


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slipslidingaway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Nov-14-08 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Just checked the link, it seems you will have to copy and paste
the link in a new window to view.
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