Hey, read this and feel a little better.

[TayTay]

Billmon at the Whiskey Bar has this heartening post. (Well, it's heartening for Billmon.)

We just might see a nice turnover next year. You can go here and see how many times the Senate has 'turned over' since the founding of the Republic. Hmmm. Senate Turnovers in History I wonder if history will repeat next week.

[ginnyinWI]

1. what the other side thinks

This is from a post at www.redstate.org. But I like your scnenario a lot better!

...On to the Senate. Due to real world commitments, I haven't done a round-up of the Senate in many months. And again, I don't have the time to analyze and present each major race right now. Fortunately, the National Journal's Chuck Todd (subscription required) has his latest rankings out on the Senate races. They are below the fold with some commentary.

Here are my commentless rankings.

Most likely to change from D to R:
1. Minnesota (Open)
2. Maryland (Open)
3. New Jersey (Open if Corzine wins for GOV)
4. Washington (Cantwell)
5. Michigan (Stabenow)
6. Florida (Nelson)
7. Nebraska (Nelson)
8. West Virginia (Byrd)

Most likely to change from R to D:
1. Pennsylvania (Santorum)
2. Ohio (DeWine)
3. Rhode Island (Chafee)
4. Missouri (Talent)
5. Tennessee (Open)
6. Montana (Burns)
7. Arizona (Kyl)
8. Mississippi (Open if Lott retires, if not forget about MS)

Mr. Todd and I obviously disagree on parts of the ordering of vulnerability of seats. Considering the buzz around 2006, Rs are actually in better shape than the conventional wisdom has them. Only one incumbent lost in 2004 (Daschle) and Rs are only defending one open seat so far (TN). Most races are in states carried by the President. Rs lucked out by having concensus strong candidates in the 3 open seats at the top of the list (MD, NJ, and MN). Rs missed several opportunities in friendly states due to recruitment problems. Nevertheless, the line-up actually looks like a wash overall. If the races were today, PA and MN would flip sides and MD would be close. No other changes. But we have a year to go and if the tide flows strongly one way or the other, a +4 for either side is not unreasonable.

[TayTay]

4. Odd how they think

Most likely to change from D to R:
1. Minnesota (Open)
2. Maryland (Open)
3. New Jersey (Open if Corzine wins for GOV)
4. Washington (Cantwell)
5. Michigan (Stabenow)
6. Florida (Nelson)
7. Nebraska (Nelson)
8. West Virginia (Byrd)

First of all, Elizabeth Dole has done a terrible job of recruiting cnadidates to run next year. Byrd doens't have an opponent yet and it's getting late in the game. I don't think Nelson in NE does either. Nelson in FL has Harris and the polls are double-digit in favor of Nelson so far. Cantwell is holding her own, Stabenos doesn't have a real opponent yet. I don't think NJ will go Repub, but it depends on Corzine winning and appointing a good Dem to the Senate to take his seat.

Does anyone think MD or MN will go Rethug? Why?

[whometense]

6. I thought the same thing -

Huh? If those are their most likely prospect they're really screwed.

[ginnyinWI]

7. I agree

It looks like a lot of wishful thinking on their part. I don't know about Maryland, but I don't think blue Minnesota is in danger! I've personally been there and seen all of the JK/JE stickers still on so many cars and houses!

[whometense]

2. For Billmon,

that's positively chipper!! He's such a wonderful writer, but I can only read him every now and then because he usually leaves me feeling - shall we say - rather low?.

Hey - you have kid in NYC. How did you feel about yesterday's confluence of terra terra terra speech and yet another LOOK OUT NEW YORK moment? I flew into a blind rage from which I still have not recovered. I won't go into details, but if that ******* ******** thinks he's gonna raise his polls by trying to freak out New Yorkers he ******* ought to rethink his plan.

[TayTay]

3. Well, I will be driving my son to the Amtrak station later on to

take the train to NYC. He will arrive in Penn Station, where his sister will meet him and let him stay in her dorm for the weekend. Gulp! I am a wee bit nervous, but I think the NYC cops can handle this. (As long as FEMA is not involved.)

It's scary, but that's life.

[whometense]

5. My younger son

is spending the weekkend in NYC too, only in Brooklyn, not with his brother. So my empathies - I've got two in the city this weekend too.

I'm not so much worried as I am pissed off and feeling jerked around. I don't expect any one person can keep anything bad from ever happening. But I HATE that I can't trust anything they say. That's where my rage originates.

[ginnyinWI]

8. I'm taking it with a grain of salt

It so easily fit in with *'s latest "terra, terra, terra" speech. Maybe there is a threat, but maybe this isn't so out of the ordinary, and they decided to ramp this one up a bit for the prez.

[whometense]

9. I wouldn't think so if

Bloomberg wasn't the mayor - but he's been known to throw Bush more than a few favors. So I don't know what to believe. Hence the anger.

[TayTay]

10. I took my son to Amtrak in Dedham

and he made it to NYC and Penn station with no problem. He said they were'nt checking bags and it was a breeze. (And my daughter stays in my will because she met him on time and all.)

All is well, but I was worried. And then the Red Sox lost. Sigh! Oh well, wait till next year. (I'm not really upset. I didn't 'feel it' this year. Too many injuries. But much congrats to the ChiSox. That's very exciting for them. Gawd Chicago fans, enjoy the hell out of it, it's really rare.)

[FreedomAngel82]

11. I do think we are repeating history

I have felt dejavu a lot this past year and last year.