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Obama wins the Democratic Primary! Wait! Wait! Stop everything! The winner is...Edwards!

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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 07:51 AM
Original message
Obama wins the Democratic Primary! Wait! Wait! Stop everything! The winner is...Edwards!
Media and blogs make me wonder more and more every single day. Earlier this week, presumably because of Obama's visit in New Hampshire, the primary race had ended: Obama had won.

Yesterday, the Desmoisnes Register was hyping a poll taken 2 months ago by an obscure Environmental Defense.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=...

Read The Premise take on this poll.
http://thepremise.com/archives/12/14/2006/806
After that, it seemed as if the Obama lovefeast we had read in the media and the blogs had stopped all at once. Couple that with Edwards's interview on Hardball (that I have not seen) where he enthusiasmed DUers apparently just by being able to name a few (but not all) foreign leaders correctly.

Joe Klein (an improbable supporter of Edwards if anything because of his antitrade position) posted this insightful piece (or a piece that may have been insightful if there had been more than just one out of date post supporting the data).

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1570071,...

And the Frontrunner Is... John Edwards?
Joe Klein scopes out an Iowa poll showing the former vice presidential candidate with a surprising lead among Democratic Presidential hopefuls. Is Hillary in trouble?


Taylor Marsh has her piece too, reporting on the Hardball interview and hyping the October Poll as well.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/taylor-marsh/john-edwards...

Edwards is on a roll. He's got his patter down on Iraq. He's got Elizabeth Edwards next to him, which is a secret campaign weapon as far as I'm concerned. But when he starts talking about poverty, the middle class and how to fix the problem, that's when his rhetoric meets the road.
...


Edwards has certainly his qualities, but this hyping of a different candidate every other week as if all other candidates should desist is making me dizzy.

There are two conclusions of this weekly new favorite as the anti-Hillary:

- Hillary is the early frontrunner. No national poll has shown her other than first with at least 29 % in months. It is of course largely built on name recognition and media buzz at this point, but it is a fact.

- The race for the anti-Hillary candidate is still wide open. Everybody, even those with 1% in the polls, have a chance to make a convincing argument and to win. But they have to go out and make it. However, the media buzz on Gore, then Obama, then Edwards, shows that nothing is done.
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 08:01 AM
Response to Original message
1. The polls don't mean anything right now
They aren't real and aren't measuring anything beyond name recognition.

Democrat John Kerry regains luster with startling victory in Iowa caucuses
AP Worldstream (01-19-2004)
By DAVID ESPO


DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Sen. John Kerry's startling victory in the Iowa caucuses was a comeback for the ages, a late surge that remade the Democratic presidential race at the first turn.

On a fiercely cold winter's night, Iowa's grassroots Democrats also raised doubts about the staying power of Howard Dean's antiestablishment campaign, encouraged John Edwards to fight on and dealt Dick Gephardt out of the race.

The winnowing continues next Tuesday in New Hampshire, where the Iowa survivors and Sen. Joseph Lieberman and former NATO commander Wesley Clark clash in the first-in-the-nation primary.

Kerry's victory was as ironic as it was remarkable.

A fourth-term senator and Vietnam veteran, he joined the race as the presumptive front-runner, then lost ground steadily in 2003, plagued by his own fumbles as well as by Dean's more nimble campaign.

The campaign reached its nadir in November, when Kerry fired his campaign manager -- and then was forced to call him and two aides who subsequently quit to apologize for saying he'd be "better off" without them.

Even two weeks ago, the polls suggested Iowa was a race between Dean and Gephardt. But Kerry found his campaign voice near the end, and matched it to a strong get-out-the-vote operation at a time when many Iowans remained undecided.

In the campaign's final days, he was helped, as well, by Jim Rassmann, whose life he saved in harrowing conditions in Vietnam. The two held a reunion 35 years after the life-searing experience, and the retired Oregon police officer became a campaign supporting act unlike any other.

A survey of caucus-goers, done for The Associated Press and television networks to measure initial preferences, showed Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the "right experience" was the most important candidate quality.

The same survey showed more than a third of caucus-goers made up their minds in the campaign's final week, and Kerry got the backing of 40 percent of them.


As winner, Kerry can count on a boost in the marathon struggle for the Democratic presidential nomination, but it's no guarantee of ultimate success.

Which helps explain why he, Kerry, Edwards and Gephardt invested many months and millions of dollars campaigning across the state.

And why Clark and Lieberman didn't.


SNIP
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wildflowergardener Donating Member (863 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
2. Debates - Primaries
You know, I went into the 2004 Primaries not really knowing many of the candidates. I was partial towards Gephardt because he was my representative in Missouri.

I certainly wouldn't have factored into any of those old polls because I'd never even heard of John Kerry. The debates were what made me decide to vote for him.

Dean didn't appeal to me. I decided Gephart, though I liked him, didn't really have a chance. The two I really liked were Kerry and Edwards. Both of them came to St. Louis before the primaries. I went to see John Kerry. I would have gone to see John Edwards, but it didn't seem that there was going to be a big enough room that you'd be able to get in to see him.

That probably was a major factor - I'd actually gotten to hear Kerry speak live, and he's a very good speaker. On a side note, I know they pick small rooms on purpose so it seems like there is a big crowd, but it seems to be they would do better by picking a room people can actually come to see a candidate in and decide if they like them. Even for John Kerry there was a huge long wait to see if you could get into the room - it was at a local community college.

It may be that other people will also decide at the debates, and Senator Kerry is a good debator. That is where you really get to compare the candidates side by side. People may see some of the other people and decide, you know even though he's run before he's still the best qualified for the job.

Hillarys war support isn't going to help her. I've never seen Obama in a debate. I really liked Edwards during the primaries, but lost some of my liking for him over the course of the campaign. I still liked him, but he seemed a lot more superficial - maybe not as intelligent as John Kerry. That may not be the case - just my perception.

Meg
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
3. Here is the quiz that got the media and some DUers raptured.
Edited on Fri Dec-15-06 09:36 AM by Mass
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/politics/...

Edwards did fine when asked for the leaders of Canada, Mexico, Iraq, Italy and Germany, correctly giving Matthews the last names of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, President Felipe Calderon, President Jalal Talabani, Premier Romano Prodi and Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"What don't we know here," a seemingly surprised Matthews said, to which Edwards quickly taunted, "Keep going."

Edwards was tripped up only when asked for the leader of South Africa, unable to come up with President Thabo Mbeki.
...


I am relieved that he got most of them right, and happy to see that, by Matthews's standards, I am a genius in foreign policy, though the test does not seem too hard for somebody who wants to be president.

How low have we fallen? Somebody who wants to be president should know the name of the leaders of the tho neighboring countries, two major European countries, and the country we are stuck in. Bush was the exception, not the norm.
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wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Actually, knowing the names of some foreign leaders moves him a step above
Bush, who knew no one. However he still has a long way to come to be able to stand shoulder to shoulder next to Kerry in this area. Knowing the names and being able to recite them is no differ than knowing your alphabet.
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wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
4. Fluff pieces+ positive PR = better poll numbers- temporarily.
I want to see poll numbers after a smear campaign is waged against them, and after people start really paying attention. I am not buying into any of this and I don't think the general public is either. This type of hyped up press followed by the gushing remarks of that candidates supporters is getting old fast.
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benny05 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-15-06 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
6. Actually Joe Klein is a Clintonista
He's not crazy about Edwards and never has been, which is why he got David Yepsen, who leans "right" to help him out.

The only thing I found noteable was that the poll was conducted by a group that surveys opinions about enviromental issues. Sixty-nine Iowans said that was important in the 2008 election. And Gore is not in the poll either.
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