Journal’s Paper on ESP Expected to Prompt Outrage

[SecularMotion]

One of psychology’s most respected journals has agreed to publish a paper presenting what its author describes as strong evidence for extrasensory perception, the ability to sense future events.

The decision may delight believers in so-called paranormal events, but it is already mortifying scientists. Advance copies of the paper, to be published this year in The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, have circulated widely among psychological researchers in recent weeks and have generated a mixture of amusement and scorn.

The paper describes nine unusual lab experiments performed over the past decade by its author, Daryl J. Bem, an emeritus professor at Cornell, testing the ability of college students to accurately sense random events, like whether a computer program will flash a photograph on the left or right side of its screen. The studies include more than 1,000 subjects.

Some scientists say the report deserves to be published, in the name of open inquiry; others insist that its acceptance only accentuates fundamental flaws in the evaluation and peer review of research in the social sciences.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/science/06esp.html?_r=1&hp

[laconicsax]

1. A nice takedown of the paper in question.

http://www.ruudwetzels.com/articles/Wagenmakersetal_subm.pdf

Problem 1: "Confusion between exploratory and confirmatory studies brought about by what we have termed the Bem Exploratoration Model (BEM)."
Problem 2: "Insuffiecient attention to The fact that the probability of the data given the hypothesis does not equal the probability of the hypothesis given the data (i.e. the fallacy of the transposed conditional).
Problem 3: "Application of a test that overstates the evidence against the null hypothesis."

Problems one and two is readily apparent if you read http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf">the study--the conclusions of the experiments go out of their way to highlight a likely outlier as evidence of precognition.

Sadly, this lousy study is going to be propped up for years to come as evidence of ESP.

[TZ]

2. Meh. Just wait and see if any other lab can replicate its results

If ESP really exists than that shouldn't be a problem right? We'll see. Plenty of papers in the scientific community look good as a stand alone, but after follow up experiments...Not so good. Anytime anyone jumps on this paper as proof ESP IS REAL, I will remind them that table top fusion was "discovered" once too. Hows that worked out?

[laconicsax]

3. There's a slight difference:

People who believe in ESP will take this as validation of their bullshit, whereas there weren't table-top fusion merchants prior to that fiasco.

[salvorhardin]

4. By "table-top fusion", do you mean Pons-Fleischman-style cold fusion?

Because table-top fusion usually refers to the Hirsch-Farnsworth Fusor, which is a very real device that actually does achieve fusion. It just never scaled up the way Philo T. Farnsworth hoped. But NASA uses a modified verison of it for their ion thruster engines.

[varkam]

5. I say why not.

It might give folks some ammo in rhetoric, but it will also allow for others to attempt to reproduce his results using his methodology. It may end up doing more harm to the "cause" of ESP than good to publish it.

[Heddi]

6. hey!! it's you!!!! so glad to see you back

:hugs:

[varkam]

7. Good to see you as well

:hi:

I lurk from time to time, but school has just been really a time vampire. Hope things have been well with you :pals:

[Heddi]

8. things have been great. I'm a mod again, I don't post as much since I tend to post in heated

discussions :evilgrin:

how have you been?

[varkam]

9. Oh I've been fine -- just really busy.

I've been working for a small criminal defense firm and trying to get decent grades in school, so it's been a struggle to make time for family and friends, but I'm not complaining. I've learned a great deal (such as the fact that I will be thoroughly unprepared to actually represent anyone) and have solidified that this is what I want to do with my life. The upcoming semester should be a little more laid back and then it's time to see about the bar exam.

That's pretty much been my life for the past while. What have you been up to other than keeping the peace?

[Heddi]

10. Keeping the peace, mostly :D Moved back to Seattle (after a gloriously horrible 14 mos in Fl)

now working in very very large, very very busy community hospital/state hospital/trauma center ER. Very busy, learning lots, getting my chops busted but it'll only make me stronger, right? RIGHT?

[varkam]

11. That's what they keep telling me and, sure, I'll believe it.

It beats thinking it's all for naught. :D