But the
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation">rocket equation starts biting you in the ass. The rocket equation shows the relationship between delta-vee (change in velocity) and the required mass ratio (of payload to propellant). Basically, if you need twice the delta-vee (a Mars return doesn't but for the sake of argument...) then you need four times the rocket. Now it doesn't take the same delta-vee to return from Mars as it did to get there (it's about 40% more so 1.4
2 = 2) and surprisingly, it's actually less delta vee to reach the surface of Mars than the Moon:
The Mars Direct plan involves sending a second ERV (Earth Return Vehicle) along with the astronauts. It's intended to serve as the return ship for the next crew twenty-five months later (the minimum energy transfer orbit window opens up every twenty-five months) but would also serve as a backup for the first crew:
Well, since we're talking about aerobraking, it would pretty hard to land out of rover distance of the first ERV
and survive to put it grimly. It's like the Apollo capsules and the CEV that NASA's designing for the Orion. Come in too shallow and you skip off. Come in too steep and you're crushed by the gees and/or burn up.
But let's suppose anyway that they did somehow land too far from the first ERV and further suppose that their accompanying ERV also landed too far away (or both ERVs malfunction in such a way that they can't make a single working ERV out of both). Well then they would simply extend their mission and be rescued (or resupplied) in twenty-five months. Aldrin even goes so far as to say that the first explorers should simply
http://www.physorg.com/news143972922.html">go to Mars to stay. For any geologist worth her salt, 18 months would be too short anyway.
Are there risks? Absolutely. And these risks will never be zero no matter what redundancy is designed into the system. I tend to be risk-adverse: There needs to be some kind of a reward to offset the risk. We've lost fourteen astronauts while doing nothing more than spinning around in LEO for the last forty years. Challenger's mission was launching a god-damned communications satellite for pity's sake! If we're going to risk human life in space then let's do it for something more than launching satellites!
So why Mars? Off the top of my head:
1. Better understand our environment by studying another world's. Compare and contrast. How are they similar? How do they differ?
2. Search for life. We know that Mars had a warm, wet past. Even the existence of extinct Martian life would have huge implications for the frequency of life in the galaxy. Are we alone or is life common throughout the cosmos?
3. Longer term, perhaps become a two world species
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13748-stephen-hawking-calls-for-moon-and-mars-colonies.html">as Hawking suggests. It's a bit of an understatement to suggest that we shouldn't have a full-scale nuclear war or continue to mess up our home
but there are disasters beyond our control e.g. getting smacked by a comet or asteroid as did Jupiter a couple of weeks ago. As has already happened to Earth countless times.
Are those things worth 0.25% of our GDP as Hawking suggests? I say it is.