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Mother Jones: gay marriage referenda actually helped Kerry in 2004

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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 04:59 PM
Original message
Mother Jones: gay marriage referenda actually helped Kerry in 2004
Edited on Mon Oct-13-08 05:01 PM by greeneyedboy
The more we know about 2004, the more we know how wrong the conventional wisdom was and has been: No, Bush didn't win. No, this wasn't a victory of right-wing so-called "values voters". And no, marriage initiatives did not win any states for Bush.

Kerry pollster Mark Mellman has found that anti-gay-marriage ballot initiatives didn't boost voter turnout for either party. Moreover, political scientists at MIT found that Bush's share of the 2004 vote increased in most battleground states, but not the three that had gay marriage bans on the ballot. Stephen Ansolabehere, one of the study's authors, concludes that the gay marriage referenda may have given Kerry a bump. "That suggests there might even be some sort of backlash against this kind of politics," he notes.

- from Mother Jones - www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2008/09/outfront-the-... (emphasis added)


Of course, we already knew that civil rights battles should not wait for the mythical time when no elections are on the horizon, and that pro-equality plaintiffs can't be expected to back out of their years-long case because the timing is inconvenient. We already knew that Karl Rove, not people fighting for their civil rights, "pushed the issue" in 2004. Now we know that it didn't even work. This should put an end to any more "those darn impatient gays!" nonsense about 2004.

In 2008, marriage equality is on the line in California. Out-of-state right-wing forces have poured millions into dishonest ads (claiming, among other things, that churches will lose their tax-exemption because of marriage equality--?!?), and the ads are working: the marriage ban has come from behind to take a narrow lead in recent polls. No on Prop 8 needs all the time and money you can give.

This campaign will have lasting effects nationwide. Please help make sure LGBT friends and family can celebrate the blue tsunami on November 5th wholeheartedly. You can phonebank from home, help out at one of the campaign's field offices in California, and most importantly, donate some money to preserve marriage equality.
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terrya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:01 PM
Response to Original message
1. Recommended! Thank you for posting this.
That is such good news for the GLBT people here who had to endure the bullshit after election night 2004.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I know--and again with NJ in 2006, and this week with CT.
Hogwash. If an initiative "boosts turnout" only among voters who were going to vote anyway, and doesn't change their vote, does it turn an election? I'm thinking NO.
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Creideiki Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. But, but, but...
Someone's going to get the sniffles! That's clearly because the CT Supreme Court didn't hate gays appropriately!
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. Glenn Greenwald said it in 2006
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TheWraith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:08 PM
Response to Original message
3. Yeah... I don't believe that for a split second.
I don't know what data this person massaged, but in that climate to think that gay marriage helped Kerry goes against all known logic.
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Fran Kubelik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. yeah right. fucking queers ruin everything.
:eyes:
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terrya Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Prop 8 in California may pass...that should make you happy.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. do you have any evidence or just your own hunches? n/t
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roughsatori Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. We GLBT folks who always vote Democratic are foolish as the Log Cabiners.
We are expected not to care that our party is not for equal rights for us. Biden even crowed agreement over he and Palin being against gay marriage. Fuck him, fuck her, fuck the Democratic Party and FUCK DU for tolerating bigotry against equal rights for gays to the point that any gay donating money here is as moronic as those Log Cabiners. FUCK them all. I hate DU and the Democratic party. And I hope to find myself proudly tomb-stoned from this hideous site.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:41 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. and results will be better if we don't? n/t
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roughsatori Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #11
18. The lesser of 2 evils vote is no longer an act I find at all progressive.
Half the Dems in my own family are against gay rights.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. are the Republicans better?
Our choices are (1) annoyingly slow incremental positive change with occasional backsliding, or (2) rapid, radical, and longlasting negative change. I know which I'm voting for.
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roughsatori Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. I am voting for Obama..
I have heard your argument for voting for the Democratic Party every election. I have done so, and have always said it would be the last time. But after hearing Biden so gleefully agree with Palin in the debate about being against gay marriage--this will be my last vote for the Democratic Party (That is if they do as little for us as they did under Clinton). I don't like licking to boot-heels of my oppressors, even if they are Democratic Party members.
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roughsatori Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. You make a strong point for GLBT people to no longer vote for the Dems.
DU has become a cesspool of bigotry toward GLBT members. You can post all you want about us not yet being worthy of equal rights. BUT when I correctly note you to be a bigot I will be the one who receives a warning. FUCK DU with its continued allowance of bigots allowed to post that we are not worthy of equal rights NOW. I can't even understand why any GLBT would donate money to this odious message board.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. slightly overstated?
I don't like seeing Yes on 8 ads here, or hearing them on progressive talk radio, but I've certainly seen worse cesspools.

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roughsatori Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. My posts did not mention the Prop 8 ads.
I find any person who is not for equal-rights for all GLBT people to be bigots. It used to be a policy here at DU that people were not permitted to argue that the Democratic party should not be for equal-rights for gays using the "it's to soon," or any other argument. But that has been abandoned. The DU level of discourse is rarely progressive and has a rah rah policy that lacks in intelligence.

You may prefer to swim in cess pools that stink less. I prefer to stay out of Dem or GOP Cesspools. Personally, I marched against Clinton and his DOMA, and "Don't ask don't tell," bullshit. Oh yeah, I was told that time to vote for him because he was the lesser of 2 evils. I regret that I voted for him.

I will vote for Obama. Just because I am old enough to also have fought for him to have equal rights, I guess I am naive expecting him to do the same. And the level of permitted bias against gays here these gays is repulsive. I hope to be tomb-stoned. As DU is my enemy.

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Maven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-14-08 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #3
15. Well what a fucking surprise coming from you.
:eyes:
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FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:18 PM
Response to Original message
5. K&R DONATE TODAY! We can stop PROP 8! n/t
Edited on Mon Oct-13-08 05:18 PM by FreeState
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
8. we need the trifecta
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 10:14 PM
Response to Original message
14. confidential to D. Geffen: wish more celebrities would follow the lead of Pitt, Jolie, & Spielberg
Hey, Ellen Degeneres & David Geffen, No on 8 could use your help!
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