Ky. Derby Trail: Cut Off at the Pass

[two gun sid]

From The Bloodhorse:
So, the undefeated 2-year-old champion, sent off at 1-20 in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III), had a fever the week before the race and the public was unaware of it. There is nothing that can be said here that won’t be said in the weeks to come by those who bet War Pass, including the bridge jumpers, and those who had invested in him emotionally.

All we’ll say is that a 20-minute conversation with Bob LaPenta on Thursday morning produced nothing but upbeat, positive quotes from War Pass’ owner, who was excited and confident going into the race.

“He’s a monster, I’m telling you; this horse is a monster,” he said. “I don’t want to jinx our boy, but I watched every one of Seattle Slew’s races, and I’m telling you, this horse is as close to Slew as any horse I’ve ever seen. His athleticism is unbelievable; he’s poetry in motion. He’s like a machine.”

So, on Thursday morning, LaPenta didn’t appear to have any worries about War Pass’ fever, and if he did, he didn’t reveal them or give any indication that the horse even had a fever. One would have to assume that two days before the race he was aware of it.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44120

Mr. LaPenta needs to abide by the old rule of never talking about how great a horse is until they've been dead at least 3 years. They have a way of making you look stupid. I never remember Slew quitting like WP did. Jesus, how do you compare your horse to one of the racing immortals and not expect to get your head handed back to you?

[aaronbees]

1. But LaPenta was not the only one starting to wax rhapsodic ....

That said, it's probably best not to believe or certainly toute your own horse's hype in this kind of situation. I claim we didn't see the real War Pass at all on Saturday, probably due to a number of factors, and I hope he lives to fight another day and show us his true ability when tested. If I'm ultimately wrong on being high on him, so be it; but even if he's not game for a fight unless he gets the lead, that could not account for the dismal showing at Tampa Bay, which Haskin alludes to in running down those factors that would contribute to War Pass tanking. About the fever: well, sure would've been nice to know that. Perhaps it was a factor and Zito and LaPenta just misjudged; perhaps it's a smokescreen story. Remember when Afleet Alex tanked in a race before the Arkansas Derby a few years back? I dunno, at least the Derby trail looks a lot more wide open now .... which leads me to ....

Georgie Boy. Didn't he look great? Charged and powered home real quick. I hope he goes to Arkansas and runs on real dirt before the Derby. I feel the same about Colonel John but I think the Santa Anita is his final pre-Derby prep.

Loved reading about Atoned's pedigree. Old school.

[two gun sid]

2. I like War Pass but, I ain't ready to call him a superhorse, yet...

and that race left the door open for Pyro, who in my opinion, has been the best 3YO on the Derby trail. I'm usually on those west coast horses, but, this year I'm completely baffled on how their form on synthetic surfaces will transfer to dirt. If I was a left coast trainer I'd bring my horse east for his final start before the Derby. So, if you say Georgie Boy is a good one, I believe you 'cause I just don't know. I wish I had more to add to the conversation.

I love all that pedigree stuff. Every winter I reread 'Trotting and Pacing Sires'. And I think I have every book published about TB bloodlines. Nearco, War Relic, Olden Times....The history of the horse is what makes this sport. Fast horses and colorful racetrack characters make my life worth living.

Fast horses..............

[aaronbees]

3. I'll need to read that book someday

Bloodlines are where I'm really weak on the game. I'm certainly not saying War Pass is a superhorse, just that he's got the possibility in him from what he's flashed. Pyro's earned the top spot for now, but a month and a half is a long time in Derby world.

My top five in order: Pyro, Denis of Cork, Colonel John, Georgie Boy, War Pass. But I'd love to add Tomcito to that list sometime soon. Did you make up your mind about Santa Anita vs. Illinois Derbies?

[two gun sid]

4. Sorry, I didn't think you were calling WP super...

I knew what you were saying and I agree. I was referring to Mr. LaPenta. Although, if War Pass was my horse I'd probably be bragging about him too. Oh yeah, I'd be a real asshole about it.

We are all gonna meet up one of these days and when we do I've got some books to give you. But, when you write your first horse racing book you'll have to sign my First Edition copy. Deal?

Tomcito looks like a pretty good horse. By Street Cry(IRE).

[Justpat]

6. Atoned is inbred to Shenanigans.

His pedigree is an example of the Rasmussen factor of inbreeding to famous females.

I am surprised that Repent has come up with a good horse since he is by Louis Quatorze.
I detest every offspring of LQ that I have ever seen at that sales. So Repent must
bring a lot of quality through someplace else in his pedigree. LQ offspring are as
a rule small, light bodied rats.

[two gun sid]

9. In the SB breeding business our pacers...

are not inbred through the first 3 generations. None of the best pacers have had a common ancestor in the 1st three. Trotters we try to inbred as closely as we dare. And inbreed to Superbowl.

We have a broodmare that is descended through female tail to the great racer and producer Knight Caller. In my experience, the female family is the most important part of breeding a good horse. But, all mine are state breds and we don't get the top stallions here in MI.

[Justpat]

10. You try to have the inbreeding in the 5th generation.

I planned the mating on that filly of mine,Heart That's True, that way.
She is inbred to those wonderful full sisters Bimlette and Be Faithful.

She was too small to be much good as a racehorse, but she might
make a nice broodmare because of her pedigree.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Well, I guess I don't have to worry about an unbeaten Tripler

Good call by two gun sid, in the other thread. I suppose I should be happy that War Pass lost early, no concern about matching Slew, but for whatever reason it didn't feel good at all.

Seems like there's never too much reluctance to compare to Slew. A handful of frontrunning wins, and that's fine. Meanwhile, it would probably take a dozen consecutive romps by double digit lengths for a breath of mention alongside Secretariat. I've long been aware of the unwarranted disparity in that regard, but it's not going to change so I should just forget about it.

I wouldn't call it quitting, but Slew did fall back before being all but eased in the Swaps Stakes, losing by 16 lengths at 4th place to a freak effort by J.O. Tobin. But that was the unusual circumstance, a hastily arranged race on the opposite coast, one he never should have contested 3 weeks after the Belmont. Every other race Slew had nothing but guts, even when he was short on one occasion and hyper in another, under Peterson at 4.

When War Pass broke slowly and was cut off by the #4 horse it reminded me of Slew in the Derby and I thought War Pass would bully his way to the lead as Cruguet did. But when that failed he was toast.

Seems like the last major unbeaten also ran last in his first defeat, Discreet Cat against Invasor last spring in Dubai.

BTW, Georgie Boy has an owner with USC connections. Hence the USC silks, cardinal and gold. Plenty of joyful posts on USC websites the past few days.

[two gun sid]

7. Those USC alums and fans need to get to the track...

and see their horse in action! I never made the connection about the colors. That's great that a horse is getting people stoked about racing. Now I'm rooting for Georgie Boy to make some new fans.

I started to go off on a rant about Slew comparisons and Andy Beyers but, I decided it didn't really add anything to the discussion.

[two gun sid]

8. Just to stir the pot....

From CBS Sports:
No Fast Lane On Derby Road

For a guy who admitted to "having one of the worst nights of my life on Saturday," trainer Nick Zito sounded far better on Monday, two days after War Pass turned in an inexplicably dreadful effort when losing for the first time in the Tampa Bay Derby.

As of Monday, Zito said he could find nothing wrong with War Pass. Barring anything untoward coming to the fore, Zito said he was going to throw the race out and move on, as previously planned, to the Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5 as a final prep for the Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs.

Zito, speaking Monday from the Palm Meadows training center in Florida, where he and War Pass have been based this winter, said: "We scoped him. Everything was perfect. We took X-rays. No change. We'll keep taking more today. He'll go back to the track on Wednesday.

"I'm baffled right now. We know whatever happened, that wasn't him. That we know."

http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=26129

The ArkDerby is shaping up to be a dandy!

[aaronbees]

11. I think I'm going to the Arkansas Derby

If so, I'll do my report and hopefully share some pics (better ones this year).


In keeping with your comments on the lack of speed this year, Jeanne Wood gives a top 10 of Derby horses and laments, "What if they held a Kentucky Derby and nobody won?"

PDF file --> http://www.capitalotb.com/CapitalOTB/Files/PDF/4ed17162-381a-4224-ad80-902f0650cc65.PDF

What if they held a Kentucky Derby and nobody won? It seems like every week I have more negatives than positives to report, even on the highest mnked colts in the class. Does this bode well for some Giacomo like result? Thus far, the only 3yo to have run especially fast is War Pass. He looked like he could glide to the front of about any field and run chasers off their feet while
discouraging closers. As such the Tampa Bay Derby may go down as the ultimate head scratcher.

[two gun sid]

12. Entries for the Lanes' End and Rushaway Stakes

11th (6:14)
Rushaway S.
1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Acting Out
2 Tejanos Eliminator
3 Holidaze
4 Miner's Claim
5 Targe
6 Cape of Storms
7 Big Glen
8 Icabad Crane
9 My Sea of Fire


12th (6:49)
Lane's End S. (G2)
1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Duke of de Buqe
2 Macho Again
3 Chitoz
4 Rich Young Ruler
5 Adriano
6 Racecar Rhapsody
7 Halo's King
8 Halo Najib
9 Cannonball
10 El Aleman
11 Turf War
12 Medjool

And this news from DRF:
Sierra Sunset injured, off Derby trail
By MARY RAMPELLINI

Sierra Sunset will miss the Grade 2, $1 million Arkansas Derby after he was found to have a small fracture line in his left front ankle, according to his trainer, Jeff Bonde. The horse would have been a top contender in the April 12 Arkansas Derby follow his three-length victory in the Grade 3 Rebel Stakes on March 15.

Sierra Sunset will be flown back to his Northern California base when a flight becomes available, said Bonde. He said initial X-rays, taken two days after the Rebel, were negative, but further diagnostics revealed the fracture line. The injury means that Sierra Sunset is off the Kentucky Derby trail....

http://www.drf.com/news/article/93100.html

[two gun sid]

13. Big Glen out duels Miner's Claim in the Rushaway...

they went to the half in :49.0. No pace in this race and very slow on the poly.

[two gun sid]

14. Adriano wins the Lane's End

final time of 1:50.20.

[aaronbees]

15. Adriano looked good

Fractions were quicker than the Rushaway. Doubtful Adriano's Derby material though but he was immpressive today. All in all, kind of a quiet weekend on the Derby prep front; hurry up and wait time these days. :)

I'm starting to get keyed up for Dubai next weekend, though.
Likely fields: http://www.dubairacingclub.com/dubaiworldcup/wp-content/themes/worldcup/File/DWC-Likely-Fields.pdf

And look who's gettin' ready...

[two gun sid]

18. Damn, he looks good...

I hope he kicks some ass in Dubai.

[Justpat]

16. He doesn't look like another Hard Spun to me.

Didn't Hard Spun win this last year?


I'm looking forward to seeing War Pass two weeks from now at Aqueduct. I might bring my
laptop to the track and do some blogging.

[two gun sid]

17. Yep, Hard Spun won it last year...

please do bring the laptop to the track. I'd love to get your impressions of all that goes on leading up to the Wood. I can't imagine the kind of pressure Mr. Zito and Mr. LaPenta are under. What a year this has been. Almost the end of March and I still do not see a horse that has the look of a Derby winner.

[two gun sid]

19. For my friend, aaronbees...

From the Bloodhorse:
Tomcito Invokes Memories of Canonero II

The mere mention of 1971 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes hero Canonero II to most horsemen from Latin America immediately invokes pride.

Trainer Dante Zanelli Jr. is no different and he has a healthy respect for the achievements of the Venezuelan star who swept the first two legs of the American Triple Crown, he's just not ready to compare his charge, Jetset Racing's Tomcito, to the legend.

“There's no comparison. They were two different horses,” said Zanelli while overseeing Tomcito schooling in the paddock at Gulfstream Park. “It was a different case for Canonero, because (his connections) knew what they had. That might be the case for our horse, but we're in a different place.”

A 3-year-old son of Street Cry, Tomcito won Peru’s Derby Nacional (Per-I) at 1 ½ miles last out Nov. 17, and is on course to make his first start in the United States in the $1 million Florida Derby March 29 at Gulfstream.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44200

How many here remember Canonero II's Derby win? I do. I was just starting to get interested in horse racing the year he won. I remember his owner saying, and I'm paraphrasing here,: "We come up here, a Black and an Indian, and we beat the cream of American racing. No one gave us a chance but, here we are." Even I knew that it shook up the hard boots in Kentucky to have a $1200 horse win the Derby. Those were exciting times. OB, am I remembering this right?

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I remember Canonero

The first year I was old enough to follow sports and maintain interest level was '68. So that was the Dancer's Image/Forward Pass controversial Derby. Forward Pass was a football term so I had rooted for him, plus the term Calumet Farm sounded so mysterious and powerful.

In '69 it was an awesome 3 year old year and I remember how let down I was when Majestic Prince lost the Belmont. It had already been 20+ years since Citation and the Triple Crown gap was a huge media topic, seemingly more than this time. But the commentators were emphasizing Majestic Prince would probably not be at his best in the Belmont, due to physical woes, so I was prepared for it.

1970 was mush. Then in '71 Hoist the Flag was the huge hope to end the Triple Crown drought. We had two major papers in Miami, the Herald and the afternoon Miami News, and both featured several stories on Hoist the Flag. Once he went down with a career ending injury in early spring I was sure it would be another blase year like 1970, with mediocrity in all 3 races.

Canonero was astonishing. If I remember correctly he was dismissed in the parimutuel field. Recently there have been shocking Derby winners who also took the Preakness and threatened a Triple Crown, like Charismatic and Funny Cide, but neither story was as wild or gripping or unexpected as Canonero. When he took the lead in the Belmont I was certain he had it. Then a steady collapse, and the world felt unfair. That might be the first time I was genuinely disgusted at a sporting outcome.

For whatever reason I don't think the media talked about his physical problems before that race. I was stunned the following week when my Sports Illustrated arrived in the mail, a new gift subscription from my parents, and the front cover had a picture of Canonero with the headline, "Canonero Should Not Have Run."

[aaronbees]

21. Thanks for that article

Sounds like his trainer is realistic about where Tomcito is at right now. It's a puzzle knowing what to make of his Peru races but he was visually impressive, and you have to like the Street Cry sire angle. Plus, he's shown some stamina and there are real question marks on a lot of horses this year as to whether 1 1/4 miles is an attainable, right distance. I'll be rooting for Tomcito if he makes it to the Florida Derby (Big Brown is interesting there too) ... would be nice to add some surprise and mystery to the Derby trail this year! The Canonero story is a great one, but I was all of two months old when he won the Derby. I think I must have missed that race! :)