Schedule of Poll Closing Times

[DjTj]

Here's how I see it, using the schedule at this site:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/closing.phtml?format=mc

At 6pm, the polls close in portions of Indiana and Kentucky. These should both be solid Bush states, but if Kerry picks up one of these states, we will be in for a very good night.

At 7pm, the polls close in most of Florida and New Hampshire. The polls also close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and the rest of Indiana and Kentucky. Kerry should win Vermont. If Kerry wins Virginia, it's over. New Hampshire would be good news and Florida would be very good news.

At 7:30pm, the polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and most of North Carolina. Winning West Virginia or North Carolina would mean a Kerry landslide. If either candidate wins both Florida and Ohio, it almost guarantees victory.

At 8pm, the polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. The polls close in the rest of New Hampshire and Florida. The polls also close in most of Michigan, Kansas, and Texas. AL, MS, MO, OK, TN, KS, and TX should go for Bush. CT, DE, DC, IL, ME, MD, MA, and NJ should go for Kerry. The states to watch are Pennsylvania and Michigan. If either candidate has 3 states out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Ohio, it almost guarantees victory.

At 8:30pm, the polls close in Arkansas and the rest of North Carolina. If Kerry picks up either of these states, it's great news.

At 9pm, the polls close in Arizona, Colorado, New York, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. The polls also close in the rest of Michigan and Texas. AZ, LA, NE, SD, and WY should go for Bush. NY and RI should go for Kerry. New Mexico or Colorado would be nice, but the states to watch here are Minnesota and Wisconsin. If any candidate has four out of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida, he will be looking good.

At 10pm, the polls close in Iowa, Montana, Utah, and Nevada. The polls also close in most of North Dakota and Idaho and some of Oregon. Montana and Utah should go to Bush, while Nevada and Iowa are up for grabs. If the race is still close at this point, Iowa is a pretty sizeable prize.

At 11pm, the polls close in California, Hawaii, the rest of Oregon, and Washington. The polls also close in the rest of North Dakota and Idaho. CA, HI, OR, and WA should be Kerry states although some polls have shown Hawaii pretty close.

At midnight, the polls close in most of Alaska, which should be a solid Bush state.

In summary, watch Florida (7pm), Ohio (7:30pm), Pennsylvania (8pm), Michigan (8pm), Minnesota (9pm), and Wisconsin (9pm). If they are split 3 and 3, watch Colorado (9pm), New Mexico (9pm), Iowa (10pm), and Nevada (10pm). If those are split, start counting electoral votes...

[Claire Beth]

1. The polls close at 7:00 pm in TN....

they have 8:00 pm.

[eaprez]

2. I think they mean EST

[sui generis]

3. that's all right - Kansas is also on Mountain Standard Time

which is pretty funny

[Gruenemann]

4. only a tiny slice of western KS is in Mtn zone

but it still ain't in no mountains!

[TheFarseer]

5. Virginia will tell us alot.

If Kerry wins, it's definitely over. If he's within 3, it's VERY tough sledding for bush.