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4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:24 AM
Original message
4PM EXIT POLL (PRE-HACK) ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 311 EV, 50.6% VOTE
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 01:30 AM by TruthIsAll
THIS IS THE TRUE FRAUD-FREE ELECTION RESULT

	Final 4pm Polls			
	Kerry% Bush% Diff	KerryEV
AL	41.0	59.0	(18.0)	
AK	40.5	59.5	(19.0)	
AZ	47.0	53.0	(6.0)	
AR	46.6	53.4	(6.8)	
CA	54.0	46.0	8.0 	55
				
CO	49.1	50.9	(1.8)	
CT	58.5	41.5	17.0 	7
DE	91.0	9.0	82.0 	3
DC	58.5	41.5	17.0 	3
FL	50.0	49.0	1.0 	27
				
GA	43.0	57.0	(14.0)	
HI	53.3	46.7	6.6 	4
ID	33.5	66.5	(33.0)	
IL	57.0	43.0	14.0 	21
IN	41.0	59.0	(18.0)	
				
IA	50.7	49.4	1.3 	7
KS	35.0	65.0	(30.0)	
KY	41.0	59.0	(18.0)	
LA	44.5	55.5	(11.0)	
ME	54.8	45.3	9.5 	4
				
MD	57.0	43.0	14.0 	10
MA	66.0	34.0	32.0 	12
MI	52.5	47.5	5.0 	17
MN	54.5	45.5	9.0 	10
MS	43.3	56.8	(13.5)	
				
MO	47.5 	52.5 	(5.0)	
MT	39.8 	60.3 	(20.5)	
NE	36.8 	63.3 	(26.5)	
NV	49.4 	50.7 	(1.3)	
NH	55.4 	44.6 	10.8 	4
				
NJ	55.0 	45.0 	10.0 	15
NM	51.3 	48.7 	2.6 	5
NY	63.0 	37.0 	26.0 	31
NC	48.0 	52.0 	(4.0)	
ND	34.0 	66.0 	(32.0)	
				
OH	52.1 	47.9 	4.2 	20
OK	35.0 	65.0 	(30.0)	
OR	51.2 	48.8 	2.4 	7
PA	54.4 	45.7 	8.7 	21
RI	64.0 	36.0 	28.0 	4
				
SC	46.0 	54.0 	(8.0)	
SD	37.8 	62.3 	(24.5)	
TN	41.5 	58.5 	(17.0)	
TX	37.0 	63.0 	(26.0)	
UT	30.5 	69.5 	(39.0)	
				
VT	65.0 	35.0 	30.0 	3
VA	47.0 	51.0 	(4.0)	
WA	55.0 	45.1 	9.9 	11
WV	45.3 	54.8 	(9.5)	
WI	52.5 	47.5 	5.0 	10
WY	29.0 	65.0 	(36.0)	
				
	50.60	49.34	1.26 	311
				
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Cronus Protagonist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. Looks much more realistic to me
Where did you get the numbers from?

Show your support for the president, wear a FUCK BUSH button!

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

(We usually ship same or next business day by first class mail. Orders over $25 will get a free multi-media CD)



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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 01:39 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. LOOK HERE
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Cronus Protagonist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:01 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yup, I thought they looked much more realistic
They're the REAL numbers....

:kick:
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. Plus there are more numbers aren't there TIA looks like 51 states to me
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #1
22. Link to Final ELECTION MODEL Projection
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:04 AM
Response to Original message
4. They kept NH in play all night.
Look at that spread. Too close to call the entire night, until they could release it to Kerry. I think they were holding back...just in case. Only, what 500,000 votes or so....and it took them all night to call because it was a squeaker?

Pretty doubtful.
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imaginary girl Donating Member (345 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:12 AM
Response to Original message
5. look at the numbers from electoral-vote.com for Nov 1 ...

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Strong Kerry (91)
Weak Kerry (139)
Barely Kerry (68)
Exactly tied (9)
Barely Bush (26)
Weak Bush (33)
Strong Bush (172)
Needed to win: 270



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unpossibles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:19 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. the same site's numbers for Nov 2
Predicted Final Results: Kerry 281 Bush 257

so while it looks like BULLsh was pulling back ahead, it's still quite a large margin. A mandate, perhaps...?
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imaginary girl Donating Member (345 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:42 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. Actually he explained those numbers
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 02:45 AM by imaginary girl
As being a result of having (according to his formula) to add in a couple of odd last-minute Fox News polls that showed huge Bush gains in Ohio and somewhere else -- forget at the moment.

Here it is: (from archives at www.electoral-vote.com )

Now come some controversial polls. Yesterday we had Kerry ahead in Ohio on the strength of a Gallup poll showing him 7% ahead there. Today we have a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showing Kerry 3% ahead there Please don't send e-mail telling me what you think of Fox news. I'm pretty good at guessing, but I am trying very hard to be impartial. Tomorrow we'll know. Similarly, in Wisconsin a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Kerry's 7% lead has vanished overnight and been replaced by Bush's 3% lead. Again, PLEASE no e-mail about this. Instead, come back tomorrow for the post-mortem. If you don't buy these numbers, add 30 to Kerry and subtract 30 from Bush to get Kerry 292, Bush 231.

One other interesting thing is that this site had some major, major problems the last few days it was up ... apparently people trying to shut it down ... something like that. He had mirror sites, but couldn't update for quite a while ...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:24 AM
Response to Original message
8. The only states in play... all others (incl Ohio) were +/- 4%
The only states in play... all others (incl Ohio) were +/- 4% 

Which should have been well outside the 2% margin of error

NM	51.3	48.7	2.6	5
OR	51.2	48.8	2.4	7
IA	50.7	49.4	1.3	7
FL	50	49	1	27
NV	49.4	50.7	-1.3	
CO	49.1	50.9	-1.8	
 
 
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:37 AM
Response to Original message
9. Yup, the Minnesota numbers
make perfect sense to me--for God's sake, we picked up blue counties in the Range!
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 02:54 AM
Response to Original message
11. Same data plus actual results and red shift
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 03:16 AM by althecat
	Kerry	Bush			Kerry 	Bush	Diff		
	Exit	Exit	Margin	EV	Final	Final	Margin		Redshift
AL	41	59	-18		37	63	-26		8
AK	40.5	59.5	-19		35	62	-27		8
AZ	47	53	-6		44	55	-11		5
AR	46.6	53.4	-6.8		45	54	-9		2.2
CA	54	46	8	55	55	44	11		-3
CO	49.1	50.9	-1.8		47	52	-5		3.2
CT	58.5	41.5	17	7	54	44	10		7
DC	91	9	82	3	90	9	81		1
DE	58.5	41.5	17	3	53	46	7		10
FL	50	49	1	27	47	52	-5		6
GA	43	57	-14		41	58	-17		3
HI	53.3	46.7	6.6	4	54	45	9		-2.4
ID	33.5	66.5	-33		30	68	-38		5
IL	57	43	14	21	55	45	10		4
IN	41	59	-18		39	60	-21		3
IA	50.7	49.4	1.3	7	49	50	-1		2.3
KS	35	65	-30		37	62	-25		-5
KY	41	59	-18		40	60	-20		2
LA	44.5	55.5	-11		42	57	-15		4
ME	54.8	45.3	9.5	4	53	45	8		1.5
MD	57	43	14	10	56	43	13		1
MA	66	34	32	12	62	37	25		7
MI	52.5	47.5	5	17	51	48	3		2
MN	54.5	45.5	9	10	51	48	3		6
MS	43.3	56.8	-13.5		40	60	-20		6.5
MO	47.5	52.5	-5		46	54	-8		3
MT	39.8	60.3	-20.5		39	59	-20		-0.5
NE	36.8	63.3	-26.5		32	67	-35		8.5
NV	49.4	50.7	-1.3		48	51	-3		1.7
NH	55.4	44.6	10.8	4	50	49	1		9.8
NJ	55	45	10	15	53	46	7		3
NM	51.3	48.7	2.6	5	49	50	-1		3.6
NY	63	37	26	31	58	40	18		8
NC	48	52	-4		44	56	-12		8
ND	34	66	-32		36	63	-27		-5
OH	52.1	47.9	4.2	20	49	51	-2		6.2
OK	35	65	-30		34	66	-32		2
OR	51.2	48.8	2.4	7	52	48	4		-1.6
PA	54.4	45.7	8.7	21	51	49	2		6.7
RI	64	36	28	4	60	39	21		7
SC	46	54	-8		41	58	-17		9
SD	37.8	62.3	-24.5		39	60	-21		-3.5
TN	41.5	58.5	-17		43	57	-14		-3
TX	37	63	-26		38	61	-23		-3
UT	30.5	69.5	-39		27	71	-44		5
VT	65	35	30	3	59	39	20		10
VA	47	51	-4		45	54	-9		5
WA	55	45.1	9.9	11	53	46	7		2.9
WV	45.3	54.8	-9.5		43	56	-13		3.5
WI	52.5	47.5	5	10	50	49	1		4
WY	29	65	-36		29	69	-40		4
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. Sorted by Redshift (the Freeman / Simon Analysis)
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 03:16 AM by althecat
	Kerry	Bush			Kerry 	Bush	Diff		
	Exit	Exit	Margin	EV	Final	Final	Margin		Redshift
DE	58.5	41.5	17	3	53	46	7		10
VT	65	35	30	3	59	39	20		10
NH	55.4	44.6	10.8	4	50	49	1		9.8
SC	46	54	-8		41	58	-17		9
NE	36.8	63.3	-26.5		32	67	-35		8.5
AL	41	59	-18		37	63	-26		8
AK	40.5	59.5	-19		35	62	-27		8
NY	63	37	26	31	58	40	18		8
NC	48	52	-4		44	56	-12		8
CT	58.5	41.5	17	7	54	44	10		7
MA	66	34	32	12	62	37	25		7
RI	64	36	28	4	60	39	21		7
PA	54.4	45.7	8.7	21	51	49	2		6.7
MS	43.3	56.8	-13.5		40	60	-20		6.5
OH	52.1	47.9	4.2	20	49	51	-2		6.2
FL	50	49	1	27	47	52	-5		6
MN	54.5	45.5	9	10	51	48	3		6
AZ	47	53	-6		44	55	-11		5
ID	33.5	66.5	-33		30	68	-38		5
UT	30.5	69.5	-39		27	71	-44		5
VA	47	51	-4		45	54	-9		5
IL	57	43	14	21	55	45	10		4
LA	44.5	55.5	-11		42	57	-15		4
WI	52.5	47.5	5	10	50	49	1		4
WY	29	65	-36		29	69	-40		4
NM	51.3	48.7	2.6	5	49	50	-1		3.6
WV	45.3	54.8	-9.5		43	56	-13		3.5
CO	49.1	50.9	-1.8		47	52	-5		3.2
GA	43	57	-14		41	58	-17		3
IN	41	59	-18		39	60	-21		3
MO	47.5	52.5	-5		46	54	-8		3
NJ	55	45	10	15	53	46	7		3
WA	55	45.1	9.9	11	53	46	7		2.9
IA	50.7	49.4	1.3	7	49	50	-1		2.3
AR	46.6	53.4	-6.8		45	54	-9		2.2
KY	41	59	-18		40	60	-20		2
MI	52.5	47.5	5	17	51	48	3		2
OK	35	65	-30		34	66	-32		2
NV	49.4	50.7	-1.3		48	51	-3		1.7
ME	54.8	45.3	9.5	4	53	45	8		1.5
DC	91	9	82	3	90	9	81		1
MD	57	43	14	10	56	43	13		1
MT	39.8	60.3	-20.5		39	59	-20		-0.5
OR	51.2	48.8	2.4	7	52	48	4		-1.6
HI	53.3	46.7	6.6	4	54	45	9		-2.4
CA	54	46	8	55	55	44	11		-3
TN	41.5	58.5	-17		43	57	-14		-3
TX	37	63	-26		38	61	-23		-3
SD	37.8	62.3	-24.5		39	60	-21		-3.5
KS	35	65	-30		37	62	-25		-5
ND	34	66	-32		36	63	-27		-5
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:06 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Only 9 States shifted to Kerry - 42 Shifted against him
Previously missing four states data we had given Bush 13 states... this is much more spectacular than we thought. Admittedly it is the early data though..

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:12 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. As a graph... someone else can probably do a better version of this
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Middle Finger Bush Donating Member (108 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #15
27. can somene make a graph including all the state names? (nt)
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Justathought Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #15
35. Looking at these figures
I see Nebraska is listed as having a high shift from exit poll. Something is wrong there because I have lived in this state for more than 20 years and never has an exit poll favored a democrat or shifted to a republican. This is an all republican state and once in a while they sprinkle some crumbs on the floor and let us have a democrat. We get that through republican cross overs. But I have not seen this state favor a democratic candidate in the entire time I have lived here. Sounds like this map is saying something different to me which leaves me a question....who took the exit poll in each state.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #15
46. What would be interesting
Is to do the same graph after adjusting for the fact that the 4pm exit poll samples contained 58% women. We know that oversampling women favors Kerry, but I bet your chart would still show a skew toward Bush even after you adjusted the sample M/F ratio.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #15
54. Al, take a look at my latest posts re: final public polls vs. exit polls.
They matched up very closely.

One post has a graph of all the states; the other a graph of the 20 battleground states.

The state final pre-election polling was right on.
Average deviation: less than 1/2 of one percent.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:18 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. Note the 8% point swing in New York... you might have thought the NYT...
... would have noticed that one. We didn't have the NY figure before I think.
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BREMPRO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #11
19. THIS IS GREAT.. for comparison, is 00/96 data available?
it would be interesting to compare the same data (exit poll/actual/redshift) from 2000 and 1996. Has this already been done? is there a spreadsheet/chart posted? did the exit polls use the same methodology? was it the same company that did them?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:01 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. I found a link to 2000 data.. it was a bit of a jungle though.
Do you want to have a look around.. it would be useful...
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Here it is - 2000 exit poll resources
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:02 AM
Response to Original message
12. You have reversed your Delaware and DC Numbers TIA
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:27 AM
Response to Original message
17. Sample sizes... This data is based on roughly half the total exit poll
I understand

4pm sample size was 8349

Final sample size was 13660

Jonathan Simon's data was from around 12.20pm at which time there was roughly 13,000 in the sample. His data is not significantly different than this.
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ewulf Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #17
30. One wouldn't expect a big shift,
a sample size of 8349 would give you a standard deviation of 1/SQRT=0.0109, or about sigma= 1%. With a sample size of 13660, one would get an error of 1/SQRT=0.0085, still about 1%. As the sample size only increased by a factor of 1.64 or so from 4:00 to 12:00, the error would only decrease by a factor of SQRT<1.64>=1.28. As the 8349 data went into the 13660 numbers, one wouldn't expect much of a change in the numbers.

That said, it would make a lot more sense to do our analysis on the larger sample size.

(note: I quoted the values of sigma here, the standard error convention, for polling, for some reason, twice this number tends to be quoted (so they would claim an overall error of about 1.7% ~= 2%, still this is pretty low: one would expect the true value to deviate from the mean by more than 1 sigma only 36% of the time (18% in the * direction), and by more than 2 sigma only 5% of the time (2.5% in the * direction).)
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #30
37. That said the samples in each state are much smaller
say 8000/51 = 162
compared to 13660/51 = 267
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. Wrong spot n/t
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 05:50 PM by althecat
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:51 AM
Response to Original message
18. Instant News.... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions
Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time


By Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson


Scoop.co.nz is delighted to be able today to publish a full set of 4pm exit poll data for the first time on the Internet since the US election. The data emerged this evening NZT in a post on the Democratic Underground website under the forum name TruthIsAll.

The new data confirms what was already widely known about the swing in favour of George Bush, but amplifies the extent of that swing.


Figure 1: Graph showing the "red shift" between 2004 US General Election exit polls & the actual 2004 US Election results


In the data which is shown below in tabulated form, and above in graph form, we can see that 42 of the 51 states in the union swung towards George Bush while only nine swung towards Kerry.

There has to date been no official explanation for the discrepancy.

Ordinarily in the absence of an obvious mistabulation error, roughly the same number of states should have swung towards each candidate.

Moreover many of the states that swung against Democratic Party hopeful John Kerry swung to an extent that is well beyond the margin of error in exit polls. Exit polls by their nature - they ask voters how they actually voted rather than about their intentions - are typically considered highly accurate.

Last week in an analysis of a similar, but incomplete set of data, Dr Stephen F. Freeman from the University of Pennsylvania calculated that the odds of just three of the major swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania all swinging as far as they did against their respective exit polls were 250 milllion to 1. (See"The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" Dr Stephen F. Freeman - .pdf format)

Dr Freeman's academic paper contains a thorough description of why and how exit polls are conducted (in some countries they use them to prevent against vote fraud), and considers a number of hypotheses for why this year's polls could have been so dramatically wrong. He concludes that the reasons are unknown.

CAUTIONARY NOTE: The data that is released today shows the 4pm data run from the Edison-Mitofsky polling company. This run was based on 63% of the full 13660 sample in the poll. However as we also have a set of data from around midnight with which to compare this data, we can tell that the final exit poll results were not that far different than these early results. This in itself tends to suggest that the polling system did not have a systemic bias in its early data as suggested by some commentators in early reports on this puzzle.

See more...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #18
50. Some advice for communicating with boobies...
...and even with smart people who might be seeing things at 5 a.m. before they've had their second cup of java...

And I sent this to Scoop, too (to alastair@scoop.co.nz )

Subject: URGENT! Need better explanation on exit polls

Re:
Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions - Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

1. Urgent! Please include a simple explanation for boobies. Im not a boobie. Im pretty smart--but it took me a half hour to figure out what youre saying--that the graph shows the discrepancy between exit polls and Diebold results in all states. And Im still not 100% sure thats what youre saying. Back up--give a sentence or two to the basic controversy, as it stood at the time of Freemans report.

And you need to explain the word swing. At first brush, your text and graph seemed to merely be saying that Bush won--that votes "swung" toward Bush as the evening went on. Yeah, thats the problem. It's the word "swing." What does swing mean?

(We also use it for swing states and swing public opinion your way--meaning momentum, motion. You mean inexplicable discrepancy in Bushs favor--dont you? Not that votes swung toward Bush, but that the Diebold results inexplicably began to favor Bush, compared to the exit polls which favored Kerry.)

Here's your problematic intro sentence (which is not enough of an intro to the graph): The new data confirms what was already widely known about the swing in favour of George Bush, but amplifies the extent of that swing. (The "swing" of WHAT in favour of Bush?)

This is very, very, very, very, very, very important--so it needs to be clear to people.


2. You wrote: Dr Freeman's academic paper . He concludes that the reasons are unknown.

Why dont you use parts of his actual quote?

Suggested rewrite: He concludes: the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make an unavoidable hypothesis, and states that further investigation is warranted.

His full quote:

Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the public to investigate.
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Bread and Circus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
20. It's in line w/ predictions made by electoral-vote.com
My gut tells me what you present is the "real" result.
I can't believe I am buying into this whole fraud thing,
but I do.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #20
33. Want a little help with that, B&C?
Check out some of the links (or just the subject lines) in these threads:

VOTE FRAUD Links - a DU Compendium
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

VOTE FRAUD Links Compendium - Thread #2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

ALSO SEE: VOTE FRAUD? What can we do? http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



And by ALL means, see this:

********SEND THIS TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW AND MEDIA TOO *********
Best Fraud Summary I've seen!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
Link: http://www.bopnews.com
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
21. ALTHECAT, THIS WAS THE FINAL ELECTION MODEL PROJECTION
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 10:38 AM by TruthIsAll
Note: Kerry's 50.52% 2party vote% vs Bush is damn close to
the 50.6% he got based on the weighted state exit polls! 

I do not have the time right now to compare state by state to
the  exit polls.

             Kerry%	Gore%            Recent State Polls
St    EV     vs.Bush  vs.Bush                   Kerry% Bush%
AL	9	40.63	42.86	(2.23)		39.0	57.0	(18.0)	
AK	3	34.48	32.18	2.30 		30.0	57.0	(27.0)	
AZ	10	47.37	46.88	0.49 		45.0	50.0	(5.0)	
AR	6	50.00	47.42	2.58 		48.0	48.0	0.0 	6
CA	55	53.85	55.79	(1.94)	55	49.0	42.0	7.0 	55
									
CO	9	49.47	45.16	4.31 		47.0	48.0	(1.0)	
CT	7	55.32	59.57	(4.26)	7	52.0	42.0	10.0 	7
DE	3	54.22	56.70	(2.48)	3	45.0	38.0	7.0 	3
DC	3	87.64	90.43	(2.79)	3	78.0	11.0	67.0 	3
FL	27	51.55	49.95	1.60 		50.0	47.0	3.0 	27
									
GA	15	44.68	43.88	0.80 		42.0	52.0	(10.0)	
HI	4	50.00	60.22	(10.22)	4	45.0	45.0	0.0 	4
ID	4	33.71	29.47	4.23 		30.0	59.0	(29.0)	
IL	21	56.25	56.12	0.13 	21	54.0	42.0	12.0 	21
IN	11	40.21	41.84	(1.63)		39.0	58.0	(19.0)	
									
IA	7	53.19	50.52	2.68 	7	50.0	44.0	6.0 	7
KS	6	38.14	38.95	(0.80)		37.0	60.0	(23.0)	
KY	8	41.05	41.84	(0.78)		39.0	56.0	(17.0)	
LA	9	45.45	45.92	(0.46)		40.0	48.0	(8.0)	
ME	4	56.18	52.69	3.49 	4	50.0	39.0	11.0 	4
									
MD	10	55.67	58.33	(2.66)	10	54.0	43.0	11.0 	10
MA	12	70.33	64.52	5.81 	12	64.0	27.0	37.0 	12
MI	17	53.61	52.58	1.03 	17	52.0	45.0	7.0 	17
MN	10	54.17	51.06	3.10 	10	52.0	44.0	8.0 	10
MS	6	45.16	41.41	3.75 		42.0	51.0	(9.0)	
									
MO	11	47.31	48.45	(1.14)		44.0 	49.0 	(5.0)	
MT	3	38.71	36.26	2.45 		36.0 	57.0 	(21.0)	
NE	5	34.41	34.74	(0.33)		32.0 	61.0 	(29.0)	
NV	5	50.00	47.92	2.08 		49.0 	49.0 	0.0 	5
NH	4	50.00	49.47	0.53 		47.0 	47.0 	0.0 	4
									
NJ	15	54.35	58.33	(3.99)	15	50.0 	42.0 	8.0 	15
NM	5	50.00	50.05	(0.05)	5	49.0 	49.0 	0.0 	5
NY	31	59.38	63.16	(3.78)	31	57.0 	39.0 	18.0 	31
NC	15	48.14	43.43	4.71 		46.7 	50.3 	(3.6)	
ND	3	38.89	35.11	3.78 		35.0 	55.0 	(20.0)	
									
OH	20	51.55	47.92	3.63 		50.0 	47.0 	3.0 	20
OK	7	31.46	38.78	(7.31)		28.0 	61.0 	(33.0)	
OR	7	53.19	50.05	3.14 	7	50.0 	44.0 	6.0 	7
PA	21	52.63	52.58	0.05 	21	50.0 	45.0 	5.0 	21
RI	4	60.87	65.59	(4.72)	4	56.0 	36.0 	20.0 	4
									
SC	8	43.30	41.84	1.46 		42.0 	55.0 	(13.0)	
SD	3	44.68	38.78	5.91 		42.0 	52.0 	(10.0)	
TN	11	48.73	47.96	0.77 		47.8 	50.3 	(2.5)	
TX	34	38.54	39.18	(0.63)		37.0 	59.0 	(22.0)	
UT	5	25.81	27.96	(2.15)		24.0 	69.0 	(45.0)	
									
VT	3	56.99	55.43	1.55 	3	53.0 	40.0 	13.0 	3
VA	13	47.96	45.83	2.13 		47.0 	51.0 	(4.0)	
WA	11	54.17	52.63	1.54 	11	52.0 	44.0 	8.0 	11
WV	5	48.52	46.94	1.58 		45.8 	48.6 	(2.8)	
WI	10	53.68	50.05	3.63 	10	51.0 	44.0 	7.0 	10
WY	3	30.85	29.17	1.68 		29.0 	65.0 	(36.0)	
									
Total	538	50.52	50.27	0.26	260	47.88	46.89	0.99 	322
									

Gore won  21  states with 266 electoral votes            
									
Kerry leads  26  states with 322 electoral votes             
									
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. Is this your final projection TIA?
If so it looks like you would have been spot on if the competition had been to match the exit poll results. Not that we need any more proof of your genius around here.

BTW..

I still don't know where your data came from but it is definitely making an impact I will post a few links. It is already linked up on Buzzflash and Whatreallyhappened.com.

Other forum mentions
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/105424/71
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/71423/260
http://dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/105424/71
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/10323/357
http://www.democrats.org/blog/comment/00011230.html
http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=&action=m&board=...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #25
31. To be precise, the state polling data was the BASIS for my projection
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 04:50 PM by TruthIsAll
It did not include the undecided vote allocation, which I assumed would go 3-1 for Kerry. So my final prediction was that the undecided would increase Kerry's EV from 311 to 337 and he would get 51.80%

The two-party vote reflects the final weighted state poll split, assuming proportional allocation of the undecided.

If you view the Election Model site, you will see that in my final allocation, I projected that Kerry would get 75% of the undecided vote. This would have given him around 337 EV and 51.80% of the popular vote. I excluded 3rd party candidates to simplify the analysis.

I understand there are a few minor errors in the exit poll data I used(the DE/DC switch, for example). Kerry won both, with 3 electoral votes each, so I was lucky there.

I believe the other data errors are minor but I will fix them later.
Thanks to all DUers who pointed them out. Especially to ALTHECAT for fixing it in his summary and for his ongoing yeoman work.


TIA
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #25
32. Al, I'm sorry but I don't recall where I got the last 4 of the 51 states
Just nosing around. I didn't think much of it as I was rushed and there wasn't anything too critical about these exit polls.

Correct me if I am wrong.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 03:17 PM
Response to Original message
26. DEAR DUers - PLEASE CONGRATULATE TIA....
For a job extremely well done... Everybody has been looking for this data for days and the TIA simply posts it as if it fell off the back of a truck.

:yourock: :bounce: :yourock: :bounce: :yourock: :bounce:
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tex-wyo-dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #26
28. Great Work TIA!
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notadmblnd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #26
34. I sit in awe of everyone and their great work on this
Congrats!
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
29. Thanks TIA! The act of a true patriot.
:yourock:
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Helga Scow Stern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:38 PM
Response to Original message
36. Awesome work, TIA! I'll send to Kim Zetter, who has some integrity at
Wired News.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #36
40. A good link to use if sending this data... blogging it or posting it
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

This story presents the data with background links and explanation. Plus it links to this thread as well if people want to delve deeper.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
39. UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data
UPDATE on my attempts to obtain official Exit Poll Data
Since we have ended that other thread the ongoing quest for the original uncorrected Exit Poll goes on. What we have from TIA above is the best we have had so far but it is not the real deal.

I have been corresponding with a contact person from Edison Mitofsky for several days. She kindly offered a copy of regional data - grouped into East, West, Midwest & South for $750. I was prepared to pay this sum for the state by state data and would have asked for donations from kind DUers to cover the cost.. but what was offered is not what we needed.

To get the actual reports state by state would cost $750 per state or $38,000. I think she might discount this to $10,000 but it is still way out of my league.

I then appealed to Edison's better side asking if they would

1. releasing the state by state headline numbers for 4pm 8pm and
midnight (before tabulated results were incorporated into the data)

2. Release a statement giving Edison's honest opinion on what went
wrong.


I added..

At the moment you are the meat in the sandwich and some
proactive action on your part can at least divert the attention back
to where it belongs. On the politicians who created this mess.


She replied.

It is not our property to release - it is totally up to the National Election Pool to do anything they want with the data - tell people to call them.


So I think that is what we should do.

al
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #39
42. Here is a link to the exit poll site
Edited on Wed Nov-17-04 06:00 PM by althecat
http://www.exit-poll.net/pool.html

I think we should perhaps work up a contact list of people to email fax and phone on this and a clear and succinct message to give them.

i.e. DRAFT STATEMENT TO SEND TO EXIT POLL MEMBERS...

In light of widespread public interest and speculation based upon exit poll data the providence of which is unknown.

Considering that the non-release of this exit polling data is raising concerns about the impartiality of the national exit poll pool members

&

In the interests of preserving the integrity of US democracy:

We call upon the National Exit Poll Pool to publicly release the full original exit poll data on a state by state basis from the 4pm and 8pm and the final pre-incorporation of tabulated data runs on election night 2004.


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Shalom Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
41. EVEN MORE REVEALING OF BUSHFRAUD
Terrific work by all...it seems to me that "red shift" charts should not be organized by descending shift percentages, but by "red shift votes" - namely State Vote Total X Red Shift Percentage.

Doing so leads to another incredible (i.e., NOT BELIEVABLE)tilt for Bush: the three top states are Florida, Pennsylvannia, and Ohio !

(I figured out how to print out these plots with the names of all the states - I set up Excel to print to an 11x17 paper printer, and then actually print out to an Adobe file. If I can figure out how to send these to DU I will do so, but I wanted to pass on info ASAP.


State Shift Votes
FL 452884
PA 377895
OH 338260
NH 332859
VT 317159
ID 260128
NM 244176
MS 175929
MN 167503
AK 149470
SC 143971
CT 108565
WV 103303
GA 98412
IL 97938
MI 95319
WA 81170
LA 76853
CO 60959
NC 59486
NV 58110
NE 57089
AZ 51538
MA 47121
IN 44514
AR 43952
ME 42916
UT 41995
KY 35552
MO 33190
RI 29946
WI 29642
OK 29278
NY 24533
MD 23590
NJ 22226
DE 20288
AL 19035
VA 15262
IA 13555
WY 9536
DC 3714
MT -2196
HI -10221
SD -13362
OR -28552
ND -40494
KS -56918
TN -72424
TX -220413
CA -335389
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #41
43. Excellent analysis
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CAcyclist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #41
52. There's The Mandate
That's roughly 4.5 million votes that belong to Kerry (ignoring the negative numbers)

Subtract 4.5 million from 60 mil = 55.5 million for Bush

Add 4.5 million to 57 mil= 61.5 million for Kerry

That makes much more sense to me.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
44. NEW WORK TEAM TASK THREAD - TO GET THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA
NEW WORK TEAM TASK THREAD - TO GET THE FULL EXIT POLL DATA

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Shalom Donating Member (832 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-17-04 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
45. Look At Red Shift Votes: Biggest Spikes are FL,PA,OH !
It seems to me that "red shift" charts should not be organized by descending shift percentages, but by "red shift votes" - namely State Vote Total X Red Shift Percentage.

Doing so leads to another incredible (i.e., NOT BELIEVABLE) tilt for Bush: the three top states are Florida, Pennsylvannia, and Ohio !

(I figured out how to print out these plots with the names of all the states - I set up Excel to print to an 11x17 paper printer, and then actually print out to an Adobe file. If I can figure out how to send these to DU I will do so, but I wanted to pass on info ASAP.


State Shift Votes
FL 452884
PA 377895
OH 338260
NH 332859
VT 317159
ID 260128
NM 244176
MS 175929
MN 167503
AK 149470
SC 143971
CT 108565
WV 103303
GA 98412
IL 97938
MI 95319
WA 81170
LA 76853
CO 60959
NC 59486
NV 58110
NE 57089
AZ 51538
MA 47121
IN 44514
AR 43952
ME 42916
UT 41995
KY 35552
MO 33190
RI 29946
WI 29642
OK 29278
NY 24533
MD 23590
NJ 22226
DE 20288
AL 19035
VA 15262
IA 13555
WY 9536
DC 3714
MT -2196
HI -10221
SD -13362
OR -28552
ND -40494
KS -56918
TN -72424
TX -220413
CA -335389

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uhhuh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:08 AM
Response to Reply #45
47. Kick
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
48. am kick
tia
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paritom Donating Member (121 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
49. Great work!
&kick
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madrigal Donating Member (69 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #49
51. kick
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SoCalDemGrrl Donating Member (786 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-18-04 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #51
53. kick
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #53
55. Saturday Night Kick
tia
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4democracy Donating Member (285 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. Kick
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mahina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-20-04 10:42 PM
Response to Original message
57. Truth, you are my hero
Thanks for all your hard work. It's the shits these days, feels like someone I love died. Hoping for tomorrow but if they steal this one how can we ever believe again. Thanks for stopping them on the way out the door.
Aloha no
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-24-04 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
58. Keep kicked until it sinks in...
tia
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