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Okay whats the deal in Wisconsin?

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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-07-11 11:03 PM
Original message
Okay whats the deal in Wisconsin?
Is the data compromised. Because it was on her personal computer? Can it be voided?

I'm assuming she was trained on this system probably in 1995, and that's all she knows, but she's been a "programmer" for 15 years?


Microsoft Access database and 14000 votes.

They are saying they left out the entire city of Brookfield .


Brookfield could well vote 78% for Prosser is not really suspicious.



Is it just incompetence?


So?
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-07-11 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. Sure seems compromised.
Check her computer? Last saved versions to see WHY there was a formula change or something with MS ACCESS?

The memory cards?

The DRE readouts?

The (sic) VVPAT that voters might not be Verifying??


What a mess. It's a poster child for what's wrong with DRE voting.

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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 01:16 AM
Response to Reply #1
12. Are they really all DRE's with thermal tape readers?
Edited on Fri Apr-08-11 01:17 AM by Ellipsis



What happened to OTOH? He split? What... he get scared off by the big mean New Yorkers?
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. Not all DRE. They're there for accessibility. Otherwise op scan.
And those DREs, AVC Edge, have thermal tape IIRC. In some jurisdiction, voters were shunted over to them due to an insufficient number of ballots on hand. I don't know if that happened here, or that it didn't, or if the DRE tallies were initially missed or anything, really. Seems like a whole lot of questions need to be answered. And many of those questions could bump up against chain-of-custody questions rendering answers questionable. Poster child.

That DREs are in the mix at all makes it that much harder to feel warm and fuzzy about any tally, let alone the one (er, two) offered in this case. And the delay in reporting certainly would have given a clean-up crew time.


One of the last times I saw OTOH we were talking about audits. Now I certainly wouldn't want to put words in his mouth but he seemed to be saying that there are some good audits out there. And we went back and forth (you know how that goes) with me asking him to point to one state, other than NM or NJ, where the audits had a really good chance of catching an error in an election with a close margin. He never offered one or conceded the point I was making. It seemed odd because he was among a number of people who busted bottom writing and getting a really robust audit law passed in NJ. From the discussion we were having, you'd have to wonder why he'd gone through that trouble. His refusal to concede the point I was trying to make seemed to be making light of the effort he made in NJ.

Him beat up? Dunno. He OTOHs stuff for sport. I, myself, was pretty worn out by the experience. That doesn't mean I don't miss seeing him around. When he's not being stubbornly other-handed, he offers some pretty keen insight being the smart guy I think he is.

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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. He was a good sport, kinda bummed searched for his name and he wasn't there.
I'm just kidding.

He loved it.


... well maybe not the "stocking" part.


sad.
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robinlynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-19-11 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #15
65. Aint no difference tween a DRE and an opscan, really. they are both computers,
programmed by people. Even if you have a written copy of a DRE vote, you dont know that is how it was counted. With an OPSCAn, you dont know how it was counted.
So with an opscan system the ONLY menasof verifying are the orignal ballots, which would need 24 hour supervision by at least 3 people to be safe. If, on the other hand, you count the ballots AT THE PRECINCT level with the public watching, and make the results public, you have something to compare vote totals with.
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-21-11 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #65
66. Thanks. I think I got it. n/t
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Kalun D Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-07-11 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
2. This Vote Snafu Aside
What's the deal with Wisconsin overall? Is it really a red state?

After all this uproar with the Unions I would have thought a repug judge would have been beat by a landslide?
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Tx4obama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-07-11 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Apparently it is a 50/50 PURPLE state. n/t
Edited on Thu Apr-07-11 11:45 PM by Tx4obama
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. Judges run as Independents, they have no party affilation...
If you didn't know, you vote for the longest serving name you recognize.
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Tx4obama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-07-11 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. Here's the run down
1) Folks in Brookfield voted Tuesday.
2) The votes were added up Tuesday evening, and the city sent the totals to Kathy Nickolaus the County Clerk Tuesday night.
3) The Brookfield newspaper got the vote totals 'from' Brookfield and wrote an article posted it Wednesday sometime.
4) At the County level Kathy Nickolaus realized around noon that she didn't have Brookfield in her total for that county when she looked at a print out and it said 'all zeros' for the city of Brookfield.
5) Thursday (TODAY) during the canvassing Kathy Nickolaus held a press conference to try to explain her error of not having Brookfield in county total.

It was only a clerical omission error in the 'county total' at the County level - the vote totals at the City of Brookfield have not changed.

Ta da!

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Lefta Dissenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #3
45. and seeing as how this thread is still active,
I'll clarify that it wasn't until AFTER THE CANVASSING BOARD CERTIFIED THE ELECTION AND HAD ADJOURNED that Ms. Nickolaus held that press conference. She did NOT discuss the problem with the canvassing board. The moment they convened, she should have explained that there was a problem, and they should have decided jointly and publicly how to handle it. That's why there's an effing BOARD OF CANVASSERS to begin with!!!! Those are the very first people who should have been told IMMEDIATELY! It is their job to certify that the election numbers are all squared away, and she didn't tell them about her mistake? While they met for a DAY AND A HALF??? I can't think of ANY reasonable or explanation for this that doesn't involve fraud or dishonesty.
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karnac Donating Member (495 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 12:07 AM
Response to Original message
5. Suspect all ya want.
But let me show you my example.

I've been involved with computers since 1980. I can even write my own device drivers(well, the last one i wrote was for a tape drive but it was in assembly!)

Don't know ACCESS at all but I can get around Excel. I setup 10 years ago the spreadsheet template I use to calculate my taxes. haven't modified it since. I've forgotten how.

about 5 years ago when i did my taxes I forgot to input an entire line/type of income. Should have double checked but I didn't.

Got audited. Paid extra and added interest.

Yup. I was incompetent. we all are at times.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 12:45 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. I talked to geek once and he mentioned some old board he...
could access through the RS232 serial port he could do whatever he wanted, where ever he wanted.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. I 'm not suspecting, I'm trouble shooting. It should be done, while it's fresh.
I've worked in excel for... wow... almost 24 years. I can make it work.

Just walking through the variables.


Having it on a personal computer, is very bad "jue jue"
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Lefta Dissenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #5
46. but if you
"forgot" to input an entire line/type of income every time you filed your taxes, wouldn't that raise some suspicion that it goes beyond human error?

Nickolaus has a consistent pattern of "human errors" that all seem to favor the republicans. She sneered at the Elections Board when they told her that her system was not sufficient or accountable.

Incompetent? I think it is much more, and much worse than that.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #46
48. We'll find it ...or maybe you will. Hah
I can't believe your commuting to Winnebago county every day...watch out for speed traps in Rosendale and Beaver Dam. Saw your interview with Kennedy. Good work.
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robinlynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #5
63. Then hand counted paper ballots with 3 watchers would work a lot better, yes?
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JDPriestly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
6. How is it possible that votes were shown to have been 100% in from
all precincts in Wisconsin if Waukesha had not reported on all of the votes from this precinct?

That makes no sense for me.

Also, what was the average percentage of registered voters who voted across the state? What was the lowest percentage? What was the highest? What was the percentage in Waukesha County?

How many precincts are in Waukesha County? What was the percentage of votes as related to the registered voter number in the city that allegedly was not reported?

These facts must be established before additional questions can be asked.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. There are 191 precincts as I understand.
Edited on Fri Apr-08-11 01:07 AM by Ellipsis
I the proportionate percentage was consistent with past elections. I'm not certain about the specific history on Brookfield, but again I don't see that as relatively suspicious . But imagine if she's been doing something for 15 years. Her background is a bit dubious. I'm sure all that data is out there. I'll look around a bit.
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karnac Donating Member (495 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. looks like your looking for stats
here are is twitter from nate silver. One of the best election stats/prediction guys. Yes. he is a dem.
(read backward)

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight



# So I don't think there's any conspiracy here ... Waukesha's vote total had been slightly lower than you might expect. about 1 hour ago via web

# Before missing votes were found, Waukesha's turnout had been 7.5% of WI's. Versus 7.8% in Pres '08, 8.7% in Gov '10, 8.7% in Feb. election. about 1 hour ago via web

# The numbers being floated about missing votes in Brookfield seem reasonable. Would be ~11% of Waukesha vote, same as in Prez election in 08. about 1 hour ago via web

# Reports that Waukesha missed entire city (!) of Brookfield in counting Tuesday vote. Could be 7K vote gain for Prosser. http://bit.ly/gqshsN about 1 hour ago via web
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 01:21 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. The coyote has some data.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... .

I check the county site stuff later, time for the recyclables
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-08-11 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #6
14. Link to County Gov PDF. Over 18,000 votes cast in Waukesha County for ONLY Supreme Court
Edited on Fri Apr-08-11 01:28 AM by Ellipsis
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catrose Donating Member (591 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-11 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
17. Heard a speech from Electronic Frontier Foundation guy
and computer professor at Rice University. His advice: Don't keep even your recipes on Access.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-11 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
18. Hrdware in Waukesha County
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-11 09:58 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. not sure where you're going with this
What we seem to have is an entire city being left out of the unofficial totals on election night, then included in the canvass totals. As far as I've been able to glean from news reports, the Brookfield votes in the canvass equal the votes that were reported by the city on election night.

I see no real indication that the voting equipment itself is involved at all. But presumably the scanner tapes will give the Government Accountability Board some ability to check whether the county canvass board did its job right. If it did, it's hard for me to see the fraud scenario that involves Brookfield.

If someone really wants a fraud scenario, I'd propose that votes were stolen in some other county entirely, and Nickolaus was asked to do this just to provide a massive distraction. I don't know of any evidence for that, but it seems to make more sense than any conjecture I've heard about Waukesha.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-11 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. I haven't a clue... I'm just bringing some content together...
Edited on Sat Apr-09-11 10:31 PM by Ellipsis
generally stating the hardware is vulnerable is all. I forgot you name is in long hand I was looking for OTOH... glad your around. I will pm you if anything is meritorous for you to debunk

I would actually like to get an audit of Washington and Ozaukee county for starters.

The woman has one of the most unique backgrounds. Former Republican caucus member specializing in Republican vote forecasting in the state, worked for Prosser and Jensen in the day, an Ollie North of Wisconsin Fascinating really.

Kloppenburg starts her review tomorrow. But I would agree Brookfield is not the issue.


I hope to post some details here as time goes along.

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-09-11 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. that's fair
I will pm you if anything is meritorous for you to debunk

ROFL! Thanks for thinking of me. :)

Prosser did kind of well in Milwaukee compared with Walker, might be worth a look -- although he didn't do especially well there compared with his primary numbers. Maybe it's more that Walker did kind of poorly there. Shrug. I don't really see much in the way of wacky Prosser numbers, but obviously it was a very close election, so....
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #21
27. "...obviously it was [indeed] a very close election..."
What kind of audit would provide 90%, or so, confidence in the result?

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. depends...
If the canvassed margin of victory ends up being around 0.5%, then in principle a ballot-level audit of 1000 individual ballots could give you about a 90% "confidence" level (see Stark's S4RLA paper, Table 3) -- probably somewhat larger, allowing for some marking errors. But I doubt that a ballot-level audit is feasible in Wisconsin (unless someone could do a Humboldt-style rescan of all the ballots).

Wisconsin has something like 3500 reporting units, a bunch of which reported over 2,000 votes in the gubernatorial election. (I say "a bunch" because it would take a bit of work to get the data file into a format where I could say exactly....) So, on the most conservative assumptions, probably just one or two miscounts could account for the apparent margin. Not much reason not to go for a full recount, on those assumptions. I'm curious what one could get by with if willing to use a within-precinct miscount assumption, although at this point I don't think enough data are available to say. One could do pretty well with maybe a 20% sample, depending on how it was drawn.
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #19
26. Have to agree.
Although I haven't seen the article about the Brookfield totals posted election night in the local paper, I've seen a few comments on DU about it. That tempered my concern.

Then, I too wondered about a distraction. "Keen", if you don't mind me saying. :D

OTOH, there are a lot of politicians and editorials screaming about this mess. Are they insufficiently informed? The signal to noise ratio is pretty darn low. So I'm just watching this play out.

Care for some?

:popcorn:

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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 12:11 AM
Response to Original message
22. Here's an interesting Factoid...or fiction, who knows?
Edited on Sun Apr-10-11 12:12 AM by Ellipsis
cberg John C. Berg@MaryErpenbach: So a Brookfield voter is #1,349 at 7:15 p.m. Yet 45 min later 1,545 MORE people have vote. (cont) http://deck.ly/~Gsr89
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Debunked
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-14-11 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #22
36. self delete n/t
Edited on Thu Apr-14-11 12:28 PM by Melissa G
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 12:56 AM
Response to Original message
24. Waukesha County Clerk Embroiled in Controversy for Years
n 2006, Nickolaus found herself in a similar situation as now when computer equipment in her office briefly showed Waukesha Taxpayers League President Chris Lufter beating then Waukesha County Supervisor Bill Kramer in the 97th Assembly District Republican primary race.


In 2005, Nickolaus was subject to scrutiny during the special election to replace Waukesha County Executive Dan Finely when sample ballots she submitted to area newspapers included a mark showing a vote for Dwyer, who ran against then-state Rep. Dan Vrakas.

Prior to being elected county clerk in 2002, Nickolaus worked as a staffer in the Republican Caucus Several lawmakers served time in prison for their roles in the scandal, however, Nickolaus was given immunity in exchange for her cooperation in the investigations.

Prosser had been part of the Republican Assembly Caucus prior to being appointed to the Supreme Court by former Gov. Tommy Thompson, which has fueled further questions by Democrats in the revelation of the unreported votes.

http://brookfield-wi.patch.com/articles/waukesha-county...
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 01:43 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. INDEX TO NEWS, OPINION & INFORMATION ON THE WISCONSIN CAUCUS SCANDAL OF 20012009
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-11-11 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #24
31. The Milwaukee County DA & GAB to hold News conference on, separate, unrelated to "the 14000" story
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-11-11 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Railroad executive charged with campaign law violations (WISCONSIN)
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-11-11 03:01 PM
Response to Reply #24
33. And, in Wisconsin, the plot thickens...
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #24
51. Kathys special software
Edited on Fri Apr-29-11 01:53 PM by Ellipsis
This is just getting nuttier by the day.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 11:51 AM
Response to Original message
28. Prosser outperformed other Republican candidates in Waukesha County in recent history

Advertisements
We have all heard that Waukesha County is a solid Republican county and it is true, Republicans tend to win there by large margins in almost every election. Simply saying Waukesha is a heavily Republican county however means nothing, we need to look at exactly how many votes Republicans have received there in recent history if we are going to determine whether Prosser's numbers add up.

I checked out election results going back to 2000, during Presidential years I looked at the results for the Presidential election and non-presidential years I looked at the results for Governor. Here is what I found:

2000: Bush gets 65% of the vote
2002: McCallum gets 62% of the vote
2004: Bush gets 67% of the vote
2006: Green gets 63% of the vote
2008: McCain gets 62% of the vote
2010: Walker gets 71% of the vote
2011: Prosser gets 74% of the vote

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-10-11 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
30. Hurtsti Hack
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-12-11 07:18 AM
Response to Original message
34. Hinky!
20,000 more votes than ballots (Waukesha WI 2006)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-12-11 03:01 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. Stinky!
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-22-11 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #35
38. Pinky!
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-11 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #38
39. I so did not see that coming... n/t
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-21-11 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
37. (Wis.) Deal reached for hand recount in 31 counties for Kloppenburg Prosser race.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-11 12:45 PM
Response to Original message
40. BRADBLOGS's Excellent compendium on Waukesha County and the recount... a must read
AN ALL CAPS HOMAGE TO THE BRADMAN! :*


http://www.bradblog.com/?p=8486
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-11 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
41. Marathon County, only county in the state that uses ES&S M100 opscans
Edited on Sat Apr-23-11 02:03 PM by Ellipsis
Manuals and some history of voting errors in previous races.


Local Stories of voting errors with the M100
http://www.cnjonline.com/news/results-28424-software-le...
http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/article.php?art_id=831


M100 Manual pdf's.
http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/7659/46490.htm...


Town of Medford,(home of the Tombstone Pizza's) in Taylor County uses M100 too, One precinct in Taylor was very late Taylor was late to report by the way, as was Marathon.


M100 does not have a real time Audit log.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-23-11 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #41
42. Sorry, Columbus uses all 100's ..Portage has one, Manitowoc a couple, Douglas has several...
Edited on Sat Apr-23-11 02:33 PM by Ellipsis
... Bayfield has three and Adams, Ashland, and Clark each has one.

The 100 is a mid nighties opscan as I read it.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
43. Wisconsin GAB Recount Daily Update (Excel Spreadsheet) link
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Lefta Dissenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 07:11 AM
Response to Reply #43
44. I wonder why
Edited on Fri Apr-29-11 08:08 AM by Lefta Dissenter
On the 27th, the spreadsheet had all 502 reporting units listed with the original canvass numbers. That provided observers with more information going in to each day of recount. Last night's update went to a format in which they are showing only the reporting units that have completed their recounts.

Note that they are not accumulating these spreadsheets on the website, they are replacing the spreadsheet with the updated one. I would suggest that people save these to their computers each evening.

If some sort of problem DOES show up, it could turn out to be valuable to show a progression (regression?) of spreadsheets and their data.

edited to add these links:
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModelWisconsin.htm

and then a (zipped for downloading) spreadsheet that shows the data that was available on the evening of the 27th.

http://richardcharnin.com/TIAvote_counts_by_rup_statewi...

Nobody is going to protect us - we have the responsibility to save ourselves and to build an election system that can't be bought, stolen or even "human erred" away.
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Lefta Dissenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 08:15 AM
Response to Reply #44
47. darn
Edited on Fri Apr-29-11 08:23 AM by Lefta Dissenter
missed the edit time of the above post to add additional links and more information about the spreadsheet:

http://richardcharnin.com/Wisconsin2011.htm which provides a lot of mathematical food for thought.

The spreadsheet linked above (and again here) shows the data that was available on the evening of the 27th: This spreadsheet has more columns than the original GAB sheet. It shows the gain or loss resulting from the recount for Kloppenburg and for Prosser, and then the net gain or loss for Kloppenburg for each reporting unit.

http://richardcharnin.com/TIAvote_counts_by_rup_statewi...

and his analysis of 2008 and previous elections.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tpsLLEzC1Ccb7Fs...

Nobody is going to protect us - we have the responsibility to save ourselves and to build an election system that can't be bought, stolen or even "human erred" away.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #47
49. Here is GAB's explanation
Latest Recount News

*
Day Two Summary
Posted: April 28, 2011 - 5:02pm

<snip>

There have been some anomalies reported, which have been resolved by individual boards of canvassers. These are similar to issues we encounter in other recounts. We anticipated these types of issues and many are addressed in our Q & A section on the website.

The updated spreadsheet that was posted late Wednesday was removed from this page early Thursday when we discovered some data entry errors. Some errors occurred in transferring information from clerk e-mails to the spreadsheet, and some were due to typos by clerks. We have been working today to ensure that the data we post is as accurate as possible. Please keep in mind that these are unofficial numbers.

We expect to post the spreadsheet, which will contain numbers from Wednesdays recount activities, around 6 p.m. today. It will not contain numbers from today because many of the counties are working late tonight.

I wouldn't read into TIA's tea leaves... too much conjecture. I will keep adding background, and data to this thread as time goes on. It's meant to be more for resources and historical perspective, then debate, but I'll take a kick and comments from y'all anytime.
:patriot:
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Lefta Dissenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-11 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #49
52. Would you explain specifically
what you mean by "too much conjecture" above? I'm interested in what holes or leaps you see.

Thanks! :hi:
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-11 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #52
53. The bulk of his stuff is based off exit polling data.
Edited on Sat Apr-30-11 03:28 PM by Ellipsis
It may indicate something but you just can prove it through with statistics. It's not physical evidence.

The guys here on ER have been going back and forth on this particular topic for at least six years. TIA is a statistician and a good one (of course a few cats here may debate that). He has been dedicated to prove his theory for a long time. He's published a book on it. He's suffered through, I want to say a heart attack and bounced back from it and his tenacity strikes me as what pulled him through. He used to post here as TIA, until he got harassed by a few "characters" here, he fought back till he got tombstoned. Emotions run high sometimes, as you well know.


Personally I'm more of a Richard Hayes Phillips kind a guy. He uses statistics as well but does a more boots on the ground physical analysis. He's published as well and has been used in court as an expert before, specifically in Ohio in 2004. Dry reading all the way around and TIA's stuff is hard to focus on, his formatting drives me crazy. It's difficult to look at his numbers. I have done so till my eyes bled.


My understanding is Brad Friedman has done some interfacing with the Kloppenburg campaign, but Phillips would be my choice to investigate if something came up, and as of yet nothing has.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-11 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #53
54. I don't think TIA was tombstoned for 'fighting back'
I think he was tombstoned for repeatedly smearing people. I say that based on the representation of the mods and my personal experience of being smeared. Many of us lose our tempers, but most of us don't repeatedly accuse other posters of being operatives. My impression was that he couldn't control the behavior because it reflected his thinking. TIA has a really hard time accepting that anyone could actually disagree with him. I think that twice I actually got him to acknowledge outright errors in his work (once as himself, I think once as one of his sock puppets), but it was a struggle both times. Anything that involves judgment -- for instance, how much sense it makes to think that Kerry won New York by over 30 points -- is pretty much hopeless.

Anyway, TIA on Wisconsin right now seems to be all about questions. "Considering the heavy union turnout, how did Kloppenburg's vote share decline by 6.5% from Obama's?" I guess my short answer is: uh, whut? My slightly longer answer is: if TIA was actually surprised that Kloppenburg didn't do as well as Obama, I think he is in a small minority. But there's nothing wrong with asking why Kloppenburg did so much worse in Milwaukee County.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-11 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #54
55. People tend to forget that the Supreme court race in Wisconsin doesn't list political affiliation.
Edited on Sat Apr-30-11 05:35 PM by Ellipsis
and Prosser's name is a well recognized. However that being said, I'd agree Milwaukee County may tell the tell, if there is one. I distinctly remember my gut feeling when Falk lost to JB Van Hollen in 2006. I thought Falk should have recounted in Milwaukee County. I don't remember the exact swing there but Doyle who was running for Govener, and Falk for Attorney General, Doyle won the state by 4 to 5 percent overall and she lost by what 17,000 votes total. They were trying to throw it off as her gender and the fact she was from the liberal town of Madison.

As far as TIA is concerned. I was just trying to take the middle of the road, certainly not defend him. At the time he got TS'ed I wasn't really, shall we say, around, all that much. Plus, long drawn out explanations are time consuming for me, difficult to reproduce, as I have little patience in recapping. If you weren't there as stuff was going on live it's difficult to appreciate the context with all the other things going on in the periphery.


I thought about having her talk with others to get a better sense of things, but getting you or "Da Boyce" sucked into the vortex, just "heightens the drama" ...glad you weighed in though.

Gotta run, people are here.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-11 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. Falk vs Doyle Imagery and speculation


television Markets


The markets are:
1. Duluth/Superior
2. Wausau/Rhinelander
3. Green Bay/Appleton
4. Minneapolis/St. Paul
5. La Crosse/Eau Claire
6. Madison
7. Milwaukee



But voters in all the other media markets were inundated with attack ads against Falk from both Van Hollen and Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC). Negative ads are designed to suppress votes, and that's exactly what they did.

http://reform-dem.blogspot.com/2006_11_05_archive.html
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-11 06:03 AM
Response to Reply #56
58. cool analysis
I have a few caveats. The counties where Falk did worst relative to Doyle tend to be counties with not many voters. It's a mistake to fixate just on the largest counties, but it's also a mistake to focus on counties that take up a lot of space on the map but don't have much impact on the results. (I'm not saying that the blogger necessarily made that mistake, but the maps do tend to suck one in.)

Also, Falk actually did underperform more in Dane than in Milwaukee -- about a 9-point gap on the margin, vs. 5.

What I see at the reporting unit level is that the gap tends to be largest in reporting units (wards and ward combos) that are relatively balanced -- where Doyle got around 60% of the vote. Statewide, and especially in Dane and Milwaukee, Falk generally does fine in the most Democratic units, but as Doyle's vote share drops into the 40%-60% range, Falk's drops farther. (Statewide, there are a bunch of those "middling" units where Falk actually outperformed Doyle -- but in Dane and Milwaukee, almost none. I'm sure that some other counties are like Dane and Milwaukee in that respect; a media-market analysis may be spot on.) So, the "swing" voters seem to have been disproportionately in middling areas.

Kloppenburg vs. Barrett is a very different story. There, Kloppenburg underperforms most in most Democratic precincts of Milwaukee -- and that probably has a lot to do with the Supreme Court contest being nonpartisan on the ballot, as you pointed out.
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-11 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #58
59. FYI - Population density, income, retirees, farm forest housing visuals
Edited on Mon May-02-11 03:26 PM by Ellipsis








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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-11 04:27 PM
Response to Reply #59
60. dammit, that gave me a sick idea
We could make maps in which the municipalities -- conceivably even the wards -- are rescaled relative to population size.

This wouldn't do much for election integrity, but it would be kind of cool.

Whatever you do, please don't find shapefiles of every ward in the state. That just might do me in.

Oh, snap. I think I may have found that already. The only thing saving me is that the 2010 Census data haven't been posted yet, and I can rationalize that 2000 is just too old.
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eowyn_of_rohan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-03-11 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #58
61. FWIW - Lower Falk votes in Dane Co
She had aggressively promoted allowing a gambling casino (Ho Chunk tribe) in Madison - a very unpopular stance in Dane Co (was voted down by a 2-1 margin).

Falk was also a strong proponent of a very controversial smoking ban in Madison and other areas in Dane Co.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-11 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #55
57. I made a scatterplot
of Kloppenburg vote shares as a function of Barrett vote shares (vs. Walker), at the level of comparable reporting units (sometimes the reporting units changed ward boundaries, so I had to combine two or more reporting units on one or both sides). It looks sort of like a dolphin. On the right side (high Barrett vote shares), Milwaukee County tends to fall well below the main trend, forming the bottom jaw. I think the benign interpretation is that the Kloppenburg campaign just didn't thoroughly penetrate the most Democratic parts of the county. I'd like to fiddle with it some more.

I've never looked at Doyle/Falk. I'll try to give it a few cycles sometime in the remainder of the weekend. At least I'm bound to learn something about WI politics.

Yeah, I realized you were trying to be middle-of-the-road about TIA, and I respect that. In a way he was like one of the founders of a new religion. It must have been a heck of a ride for people who were following along. I came along in the spring of 2005 (Febble came first -- I really don't remember how that happened) and was, as they say, just like, WTF?
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
50. Voting Equipment in use by Wisconsin Municipality
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Lefta Dissenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-11 10:27 AM
Response to Original message
62. kicking this again
just because there have been so many "anomalies" in Waukesha and Milwaukee Counties and I don't want people to forget!

Every day there have been breaks in chain of custody in Waukesha Co. Missing/mismatched seals, holes in ballot bags. Ballot bags that were not sealed properly - thereby allowing complete access to the enclosed ballots.

Milwaukee Co., there have been little stacks of ballots just sitting on the top of the voting machines in something like 8 different wards, bags not sealed well - again, the openings large enough to stick one's hand in the top of the bag to access ballots.

Hypothetically, if the programming had been jacked prior to the election - by the county clerk who distributes the prom packs to the municipalities, for instance - then in the event of a recount (surprise!!!), the paper ballots would have to be swapped out in order to make the ballot recount match the election day counts.

Just food for thought, so we try to consider all possibilities.

I don't have time to provide specific links now - will try to do so later.
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-09-11 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #62
64. I suspect a few of those may have been honest blunders, but
a good deal of it represents intentional fraud. I also think we may be focusing too much on Brookfield. It's not clear to me how many votes were manipulated, nor exactly when it was done. I'm now thinking that at least some of the manipulation was done during the election hours via vote flipping or invalidating Kloppenberg votes, and some ballots may have been added after the polls closed. I'm not sure that the 14,000 ballots in Brookfield physically existed at the times the polls closed--it could be that some of them did, but some were electronically "created" to get a plausible tally, and then the ballots were made after the fact. I'm of two minds about the failure to report the Brookfield result to the AP on election night--it was probably a blunder which prematurely drew unwanted attention to Waukesha county, but perhaps the results were deliberately delayed in case there needed to be a small "correction" to put Prosser over the free recount threshold, and they goofed on the math.
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dael Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-22-11 12:46 AM
Response to Original message
67. Election Shell Game
http://richardcharnin.com/WIVoteCounts
http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm
http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks ...
http://richardcharnin.com/2008PrimariesLinks.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/Conversation2008.htm http://richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

Kathy Nicklaus was supposed to recuse herself but she was there everyday with access to everything.
For a responsible paper to come out so early on this is oxymoronic.

Kloppenburg has ALL the evidence she needs BY LAW to challenge the recount NO PROBLEM.
The list of election improprieties far outweighs any legitimate claim to a win.
We have seen too many, in the past, give in under circumstances where no THOROUGH investigation was complete.
Democracy can and should wait, for the TRUTH.
The voters demand better and should get it!
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-11 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
68. Rachel...she said hinky. Heh. (video enclosed) "It was human error."
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-13-11 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #68
69. No really it was human error... honest... really, I'm not kidding.
Edited on Thu Oct-13-11 09:23 PM by Ellipsis
State Board Cites Errors, But Clears Waukesha County Clerk Nickolaus



When she held back returns in the closely contested race for state Supreme Court following the April 5 election, Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus violated the state law requiring county clerks to post all returns on election night.

Thats the conclusion of a Government Accountability Board-authorized investigation into wrongdoing by Nickolaus, a former legislative aide who worked closely with one of the candidates, Justice David Prosser. It was Prosser who benefited when Nickolaus announced that she discovered the votes needed to put the embattled justice in the lead with a cushion sufficient to withstand the scrutiny of a statewide recount.


http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/editorial/article_...
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